Why do so many (the majority?) of people think that covid automatically means death if you are overweight or diabetic

[ACautionaryTale]

The overwhelming risk factor of covid is age. But even in the over 80s you are still far more likely to live than die.

I’ve just read thread after thread saying it’s bad news for the overweight. No. It just raises you risk profile slightly. Hell. My bmi is 52 and I had a very mild confirmed case.

I think the media has done such a good job at scaring people shitless that the message Of the true risk is lost in the hype.

I noted on the news that they’ve changed the message. They might have done it some time ago and o only just noticed.

“X number of people have died in the U.K. after testing positive for corona”

They’ve even stopped saying people have died from it. Not saying some haven’t but I’ll bet anything a lot of those that have died did so of something else. Since they are now testing all hospital admits it’s more than likely.

The media need to take some responsibility for the shit show we are currently in

I’ve a BMI of 41or 42 (not totally sure) ... my GP seemed to believe this was the worst possible risk factor and said I must do absolutely all I can to avoid it, shielding in every way I can ... She said they can’t treat obese people in ITU, it isn’t possible apparently .

I’m not diabetic (tested in Feb), I don’t smoke or drink, I don’t have heart disease that I know of, my blood pressure is normal , I do try to exercise - I’ve lost two and a half stone in the last six months . I’m not even thirty yet .

But GP said it was absolutely the worst possible disease for me, and that I should be concerned and stay at home as much as I can until there’s a vaccine ...

I am starting to wonder as time goes on how correct that was and admit I’ve been going out walking and have met a relative . I’d go crazy if not .

I’m T2D and not overweight and am also not on any meds. I was quite blasé about the risks initially in that I was a community volunteer. I’m now concerned enough to have withdrawn my services.

I read a research paper this morning about risk factors. BMI over 40 more than doubles the risk of dying. But if you’re say 40, that might mean your risk doubling from 1 in 500 to 1 in 250. Being over seventy multiplies your risk by 7.

I'm obese and I've had covid. Mid 40's, I've got high blood pressure, astma and trying hard to lose weight as clearly I need to. I was ill with Covid but didn't need hospital and was better in ten days.

I know age was on my side and I'm fit considering my size. However add another 20 years and it might be a different story.

I agree age is the main factor and only 1 in 81 people over 80 will die of covid. I know that's still 1 too many but it's still very low!

I don’t believe many people think it’s an automatic death sentence... even if you’re over 90 you’re more likely to survive! However, around 1/3 of deaths have occurred in those with diabetes whilst diabetics only make up 6% of the population, so about 5 times greater risk, though in absolute terms that’s still pretty low unless your are old.

@ChipotleBlessing

I read a research paper this morning about risk factors. BMI over 40 more than doubles the risk of dying. But if you’re say 40, that might mean your risk doubling from 1 in 500 to 1 in 250. Being over seventy multiplies your risk by 7.

I still find those odds terrifying

If very obese it can affect your breathing (reduces your ability to expand your chest) and you are much much more difficult to intubate and then ventilate.

Even then you’re still much more likely to live than die.

If you have a bigger neck you will harder to intubate. Not a time for fat shaming though, reasons for obesity are complex and GPs shouldn’t be terrifying people.

I agree age is the main factor and only 1 in 81 people over 80 will die of covid. I know that's still 1 too many but it's still very low!

Where do you get 1 in 81 from? My understanding is that it’s more like 1 in 10.

Being over 80 increase the risk by 70 times compared with the under 40s, not 7 times!! Big difference.

The chart below shows how each risk factor affects risk. Note that the scale is not linear and the risk for the over 80s is not shown as it is off the scale compared with other age groups, even though 90% of over 80s survive.

If a dot is on the line, there is no change in risk compared to the control. The further from the line, the greater the increase in risk.

Far and away the greatest risk factor is age, followed by sex. Being very obese increases risk by roughly as much as being male. So if you are a morbidly obese female you have the same risk as an non-obese male of the same age.

For those under 50, the risk is very low. Most conditions at worse double it, which is the equivalent of being either male or just a few years older.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf

So the virus is very bad news for the over 70s, but probably not as big a risk to younger people with underlying conditions as is often thought. Asthma in particular has minimal change in risk, so children with asthma still have minimal risk from the disease.

If you were that size and male and black, then yes you'd be extremely high risk. Women tend to have much better outcomes.

Unsurprisingly age is a big factor, ignoring the other risk factors would be stupid.

If COVID doesn't scare you maybe take a trip to a dialysis centre to see what T2D and obesity will do to your body

Well yes coffee, I worked for the nhs for three years in a high dependancy unit . I remember looking after some people so obese they needed extra large beds, and eight of us to move them . I remember one person suffocated by her size . I’ve been called fat since I was 6, and I’ve been down the roads of self loathing and considering trying to physically cut fat off, all sorts .

But it’s a funny thing, all that fear and guilt and self loathing makes me want to eat - and not veg, it makes me want to eat crap I don’t need to cook and hide in my pyjamas .

The key I’ve found is accepting myself, my size, my body and finding a place where I actively want to take care of myself . Not because I’m afraid, angry, guilty or disgusted but because I like myself and I want to look after myself . That’s not easy at all but I am starting to think that’s the answer, and given I am losing weight I’m thinking it’s probably the best way to go .

People are throwing stats around without taking in the bigger picture. And correlation is not causation.
A third of the people who have died have type 2 diabetes (only 1.4% have type 1). But 70% of those who have died are male. BAME people are twice as likely to die too. Age, socioeconomic backgrounds and occupation (leading to exposure to higher viral load) are all factors. And so on.
The obesity risk (BMI over 40) has been found to be a greater risk factor second to age in a New York study. But that was of 4-5000 patients. It has been found to be a factor in other places too, but not all places record weight or BMI so stats are limited. But really it's the combination of risk factors, and also you can have no risk factors and you could still have a severe or lethal illness.

I am not convinced that I will die but I've been identified as very high clinical risk and am being shielded.

If I get it I might have a mild case, I might have a "mild" case that renders me very unwell for many weeks (though still classed as mild), I might have to go into hospital for oxygen or CPAP or ventilation - who knows which it will be? I really don't want to find out.

people don't need to read the kind of media that scaremongers and clickbaits.

It's not news that being morbidly obese increases your risk of death, the clue's in the name. People do seem to be more prepared to listen and believe it now, but no not certain death.

There are a lot of people on MN declaring they are high risk... I think they are exagerating. I'll be flamed for saying that. They mean "high risk" when their real elevated risk is like 1% above the population average. I think technically the NHS says that a drug side effect is "common" if at least 1% of people get it. 99% of people might not get it, but it's still "common"... So no wonder folk believe that having a 1% elevated over the general population is "high" risk.

The real problem is the attitude that no amount of elevated risk is acceptable. And that any price is worth paying to avoid any elevated risk.

Eyewhisker, I found that really helpful thank you. I'm BMI 40, and mild asthma. I've known my risk isn't hugely high, in comparison with other risks, but you've made it seem still smaller. I won't be rushing out- I see no need, and feel it leaves more room for people who need to be out more than me- but it is reassuring.

My understanding is that being obese does not necessarily mean you are any more likely to get a severe case but if you do, it’s harder to treat you.

For those of you terrified of odds of even 1 in 250.....

We have a 1 in 2 chance cancer

If there are 100 car accidents, your chance of dying in one is about 1 in 100

@lljkk

There are a lot of people on MN declaring they are high risk... I think they are exagerating. I'll be flamed for saying that. They mean "high risk" when their real elevated risk is like 1% above the population average. I think technically the NHS says that a drug side effect is "common" if at least 1% of people get it. 99% of people might not get it, but it's still "common"... So no wonder folk believe that having a 1% elevated over the general population is "high" risk.

The real problem is the attitude that no amount of elevated risk is acceptable. And that any price is worth paying to avoid any elevated risk.

I formed my opinion from the wording on my shielding letter

The NHS has identified you as someone at risk of severe illness if you catch Coronavirus. This is because you have an underlying disease or health condition that means if you catch the virus, you are more likely to be admitted to hospital than others

I know it's not guaranteed but neither does it sound like it will more than likely be a sniffle.

But death is not the only concern either. This is from one of many articles explaining recent thinking re: possible impact:

There is evidence that the official NHS description of the virus’s symptoms – cough, fever, loss of taste/smell – is too narrow. Those who do not need acute hospital treatment and who are isolating at home report a far broader range of problems. Often these go on for longer than 14 days. An online survey of 151 medical professionals who fell ill in March found 68 are still unable to work. A further 26 went back, only to stop again when symptoms returned.

It appears coronavirus may be a chronic condition. How long it persists for is unknown. The symptoms can be serious and wide-ranging, affecting the lungs, heart, brain, kidneys, stomach and nervous system. Headaches, shortness of breath, sore throat and feeling exhausted are common. So is recovery followed by frequent relapses.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/it-feels-endless-four-women-struggling-to-recover-from-covid-19-coronavirus-symptoms

The mass hysteria that's been spread and felt by some you'd think the stats were showing a 50/50 survivial rate for perfectly healthy people.

I don't think you are automatically going to drop dead of covid if you are obese. Or indeed if you are over 80 years old.

But I do think it's a key factor in the UK's high death rate along with various other factors. You are also more likely to have type 2 diabetes, and 1/4 of deaths have been in people with diabetes (I don't know the breakdown between types one and two and the various other types). And if it's a vascular disease and you have high blood pressure and sugar (also more likely if you are obese) they are also risk factors. Generally, being obese isn't going to improve your chances of getting away lightly.

A morbidly obese 40 year old woman has much less risk than a 50 year old male of normal weight, yet one gets a shielding letter and one doesn’t. Bonkers.

@lesbihonest

I’ve a BMI of 41or 42 (not totally sure) ... my GP seemed to believe this was the worst possible risk factor and said I must do absolutely all I can to avoid it, shielding in every way I can ... She said they can’t treat obese people in ITU, it isn’t possible apparently .

I’m not diabetic (tested in Feb), I don’t smoke or drink, I don’t have heart disease that I know of, my blood pressure is normal , I do try to exercise - I’ve lost two and a half stone in the last six months . I’m not even thirty yet .

But GP said it was absolutely the worst possible disease for me, and that I should be concerned and stay at home as much as I can until there’s a vaccine ...

I am starting to wonder as time goes on how correct that was and admit I’ve been going out walking and have met a relative . I’d go crazy if not .

Honestly, your GP isn't trying to scare you or upset you - the evidence so far is that morbidly obese people who contract covid-19 fare significantly worse than those of a healthy weight.

That said, you're not in the shielding group, just considered more vulnerable than most, so work from home if you can, avoid seeing anyone outside your household, wash your hands lots. Same as most of us.