Why do so many (the majority?) of people think that covid automatically means death if you are overweight or diabetic

[ACautionaryTale]

The overwhelming risk factor of covid is age. But even in the over 80s you are still far more likely to live than die.

I’ve just read thread after thread saying it’s bad news for the overweight. No. It just raises you risk profile slightly. Hell. My bmi is 52 and I had a very mild confirmed case.

I think the media has done such a good job at scaring people shitless that the message Of the true risk is lost in the hype.

I noted on the news that they’ve changed the message. They might have done it some time ago and o only just noticed.

“X number of people have died in the U.K. after testing positive for corona”

They’ve even stopped saying people have died from it. Not saying some haven’t but I’ll bet anything a lot of those that have died did so of something else. Since they are now testing all hospital admits it’s more than likely.

The media need to take some responsibility for the shit show we are currently in

People at moderate risk (clinically vulnerable)

People at moderate risk from coronavirus include people who:

are 70 or olderare pregnanthave a lung condition that's not severe (such as asthma, COPD, emphysema or bronchitis)have heart disease (such as heart failure)have diabeteshave chronic kidney diseasehave liver disease (such as hepatitis)have a condition affecting the brain or nerves (such as Parkinson's disease,motor neurone disease,multiple sclerosis or cerebral palsy)have a condition that means they have a high risk of getting infectionsare taking medicine that can affect the immune system (such as low doses of steroids)are very obese (a BMI of 40 or above)What to do if you're at moderate risk

If you're at moderate risk from coronavirus, you can go out to work (if you cannot work from home) and for things like getting food or exercising. But you should try to stay at home as much as possible.

It's very important you follow the general advice onsocial distancing, including staying at least 2 metres (3 steps) away from anyone you do not live with.

Unlike people at high risk, you will not get a letter from the NHS.

Because the media likes to highlight bullshit stories that get a click or sell a paper.

Because people have lost all sense of perspective, any ability to read or understand data.

Even in the highest risk groups the death rate is 15% - hardly an automatic death sentence

Apparently the latest research has shown baldness increases risk.

Theory is it’s a testosterone issue as men are at higher risk than women generally...

@ACautionaryTale

The overwhelming risk factor of covid is age. But even in the over 80s you are still far more likely to live than die.

I’ve just read thread after thread saying it’s bad news for the overweight. No. It just raises you risk profile slightly. Hell. My bmi is 52 and I had a very mild confirmed case.

I think the media has done such a good job at scaring people shitless that the message Of the true risk is lost in the hype.

I noted on the news that they’ve changed the message. They might have done it some time ago and o only just noticed.

“X number of people have died in the U.K. after testing positive for corona”

They’ve even stopped saying people have died from it. Not saying some haven’t but I’ll bet anything a lot of those that have died did so of something else. Since they are now testing all hospital admits it’s more than likely.

The media need to take some responsibility for the shit show we are currently in

I totally agree

Havelock that’s what I thought - but GP said it makes sense for all vulnerable people to stay away from society as much as poss ... so I’m not even ‘allowed’ in her words to get my meds once a month, have shielding slots for Tesco, and I guess when eg hairdressers reopen I won’t be allowed anywhere near them . GP said none of that changes until there’s a vaccine .

Even more confusingly best friend is far, far bigger than me sadly - she’s working full time in hospital . Same age . She caught covid and was absolutely fine .

The thing that worries me is my future - any vaccine could be years away, GP said I wouldn’t be risk free until BMI below 25 (which is 8 stone away) ... I can’t wait and do nothing until then .

lesbihonest

Have you got a shielding letter?

No, nothing . Just what GP said on phone - nurse practitioner reiterated it a few days ago . Tesco slots were simply because I don’t drive, and have no one else who could get shopping for me, so rang them end of March when they were using discretion .

Even if it's a 0,5% risk or whatever, it's still there. I would never do an activity if I was told I had a 0.5% chance of dying, not if the alternate was to just avoid doing it.

@lesbihonest

No, nothing . Just what GP said on phone - nurse practitioner reiterated it a few days ago . Tesco slots were simply because I don’t drive, and have no one else who could get shopping for me, so rang them end of March when they were using discretion .

They can't expect you to shield without a letter. It's hard enough with one - I still can't get a delivery slot - but as time goes on you will need access to other services that won't accommodate you without a shielding letter. I've had to provide mine to my employer for example to get an absence from work.

@Eyewhisker, as far as I can tell, virtually everything you’ve said about that paper is wrong. They’re hazard ratios for a start, what do you mean non-linear?!

@lesbihonest That’s definitely not true. People in the overweight (25-30 BMI) category have better outcomes than people with BMIs below 25 according to some studies. If you get down to BMI below 35 your hazard ratio is 1.27 compared to 2.27 for BMI over 40.

I think you need to call your GP back and have another conversation. Are you suffering from anxiety generally? It sounds like you may have taken a very harsh interpretation of what has been said.

I still find those odds terrifying

You must find a lot of things terrifying then.

I would never do an activity if I was told I had a 0.5% chance of dying, not if the alternate was to just avoid doing it

But the alternative isnt to "just avoid doing something" like avoiding going bungee jumping or never going skiing again to avoid a 0.5% chance of death seem reasonable. If that were the case, people wouldnt mind it would they.

However, the alternative in this scenario is to lock yourself in, never leaving the house, never hugging or socialising with friends or family or going to an interesting place for an undefined amount of time. For many that isn't worth the risk of 0.5% (or less).

Chipolte - please tell me what I have reported is wrong. I do this statistical work for a living.

The paper reports relative risk. It is a standard statistical technique to see how the risk of some groups compare to a control.

In the case of age, the control group is those in their 50s. Those under 40 have on average 7% of the risk of those in their 50s. Those above 80 have 26 times the risk of those in their 50s. Those in their 40s have a quarter of the risk of those in their 50s.

Compared to the non-obese, the morbidly obese have double the risk. Even if you are morbidly obese in your 40s, you still have a much lower risk than a non obese 50 something.

The scale is non-linear as the scale is not evenly spaced. The co-morobities typically increase risk by up to 2 times. However, age affects risk by much more - 26 times. In order to get them both on the same graph, the scale goes - 1, 2, 5, 10 making the change from 1 to 2 seem like a quarter of the gap from 1 to 10, not a tenth as it should be.

The 26-fold increase in risk from being over 80 is left off the chart as every other risk would seem minuscule in comparison. As in fact it is.

The 80+ figure is given. It’s on the chart. And it’s 12.64 fully adjusted. It says this on the table above the chart.

Lesbihonest, your GP has no business telling you to shield until you’ve reached a BMI of 25. Depending on which studies you read the additional risk posed by a BMI in the 25-30 range compared with the 20-25 range is either minimal or actually negative. And if he’s telling women with BMI in the low thirties to stay at home because they’re at higher risk then he should be giving that advice to any man over the age of 40 as well.

It does make you think, out of all the employers agonising over whether they’re putting their asthmatic or obese or diabetic or BAME employees at too much risk, whether any of them are considering keeping all their male employees at home.

All those risks are still there. This is added risk on top. No, you probably wont die but here's the thing. You might.

[quote YounghillKang]But death is not the only concern either. This is from one of many articles explaining recent thinking re: possible impact:

There is evidence that the official NHS description of the virus’s symptoms – cough, fever, loss of taste/smell – is too narrow. Those who do not need acute hospital treatment and who are isolating at home report a far broader range of problems. Often these go on for longer than 14 days. An online survey of 151 medical professionals who fell ill in March found 68 are still unable to work. A further 26 went back, only to stop again when symptoms returned.

It appears coronavirus may be a chronic condition. How long it persists for is unknown. The symptoms can be serious and wide-ranging, affecting the lungs, heart, brain, kidneys, stomach and nervous system. Headaches, shortness of breath, sore throat and feeling exhausted are common. So is recovery followed by frequent relapses.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/it-feels-endless-four-women-struggling-to-recover-from-covid-19-coronavirus-symptoms[/quote]
But there are many illnesses that can have wide ranging impacts and take years to fully recover from - if ever. This isn't something new that only happens with Covid. The way people are reacting as if it's previously unheard of would suggest that they've been lucky enough to have never experienced a family member or close friend going through a serious illness.

But there are many illnesses that can have wide ranging impacts and take years to fully recover from - if ever. This isn't something new that only happens with Covid. The way people are reacting as if it's previously unheard of would suggest that they've been lucky enough to have never experienced a family member or close friend going through a serious illness.

But no one really acknowledges that this is a risk with Covid. Particularly on MN all that is discussed is the death rate. You see it repeatedly - if you're young this is just a minor illness, virtually no one under the age of 40 has died, we all need to get back to normal because the risk of dying is tiny - maybe your chance of dying from this as a young, healthy person is tiny but what are the chances of suffering long term or life changing complications? Is that recorded anywhere? I've not seen it mentioned. All we hear about is the number of people that have died.

So, yes, other illnesses can cause long term.complications but on the whole we know this. The risks are known and recognised. With this people talk about it in terms of dying or not dying. It's not as black and white though. It's even described as a mild illness if you aren't admitted to hospital - mild makes it sound like a cold. I know someone who is nearly into the 9th week of having it and still can't walk up stairs because they are so breathless. They were really ill with it but never deemed I'll enough to go into hospital. I'm not sure most people would call that "mild".

I agree 100% that the use of 'mild' in relation to Covid is completely misleading - I've thought so all along. I also agree that on MN there's a death or nothing approach. But on both MN and elsewhere, I've come across a significant number of people who don't seem to have any awareness of the long term effects of illness. I do think people live more and more in a bubble these days, with very little understanding of what other people's lives can be like. And I've just realised I now hate the word 'bubble' these days!

1 in 20 people with COVID are still sick 3 months later. That's a lot of people whose futures are unknown. And being under 70 and fit wont save you from becoming one of them, the slack group is full of people in their 30s, 40s and 50s who ran marathons 3 months ago and now cant get out of bed.

"I’ve just read thread after thread saying it’s bad news for the overweight. No. It just raises you risk profile slightly. Hell. My bmi is 52 and I had a very mild confirmed case."
You had a mild case. If you'd had a severe case requiring oxygen, CPAP or invasive ventilation the story would have been very different.

If you suffering severe breathing problems as many patients have, and you are obese then a fat stomach will be pressing up into the area your lungs should occupy, compressing your lungs. You would have much more difficulty breathing than a non-obese person.

The implications of obesity and Covid-19 are obvious.

This is worth a read, very detailed:

news.sky.com/story/the-coronavirus-divide-why-five-groups-are-dying-more-than-they-should-12000643