Will be so annoyed if we go into a local lockdown because of these idiots!

[1981m]

I live in the SW of the country and we have had very low infection and death rates. How we have managed to come out of it so well I don't know but luckily we have.

However, the R rate is now over 1 again and there is talk about local lockdowns rather than a national one. It seems we would be at the front of the line for this.

I am so annoyed about this, we were doing so well and I can't feeling that as soon as the restrictions were lifted slightly, along with the hot weather, idiots travelled for miles, and I am sure some locals, immediately came to the beaches in their 000s making the virus spread. Weston super mare in particularly as a spike which in mind mind is obviously because it's a seaside town. It's incredibly selfish and now we might have to have another lockdown because they want a day at the bloody beach. Think it's even more annoying as we have done so well beforehand.

The R rate went up because of Weston General Hospital. The outbreak was in the hospital due to poor infection control, not from tourists and it was contained in the hospital. The rates in the SW are still among the lowest in the country.

Aye. What @Slothsarecreepy said. If we're put in to local lockdown, because of a hospital outbreak, I will be complaining loud and long to my MP.

Tourists went to the beaches because they were advised that it was safe to do so. Don't forget that seaside towns rely on tourists to survive any other time, and will need them to want to return when this is over. From the things I've read about the way 'locals" have treated people, they should be ashamed of themselves.

This is why the r number doesn't really work. If only one person in the whole of the SW was infected but spread it to 2 people. The r number would still be 2, even though thay would mean only 3 infected people.

Plus, just because lots of people went to the beach (like they were allowed to) doesn't mean they weren't social distancing. It's very hard to catch outside.

There won't be a local lockdown because infection rates aren't high enough. The Cambridge study authors and Public Health England were really clear that the R rate in the SW seemed to have jumped loads simply because the infection rates are so low that a small spike in North Somerset (WGH) caused it to rise but infections are still low so the R rate needs to be viewed in that context.

Looking at the R without also looking at prevalence is pointless.

Australia has an (overall) R of 1.2 but with only around 10 new cases a day it’s manageable. Kids are at fully-operating schools, shops are open, other restrictions are being eased.

And as far as Weston goes, yes, the hospital seems to be the main driver of infection and seeding into the community. Easier to blame people on the beach rather than shoddy infection control though, isn’t it?

These threads are really tedious.

Can you please redirect your anger at the government and not 'tourists'. You are projecting and seems in this case without all the facts as to the R rate.

www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/health-officials-confirm-source-north-4193110.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjXmr77oe_pAhXiQhUIHVTUADkQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw3lOK-EBzI2RDQT6CEK6_sI&ampcf=1

Nothing to do with 'idiots' visiting the beaches.

I don’t agree with all those visitors visiting the beaches. But I don’t think they have increased the r rate in those areas - I think the r rate may have increased in the areas they are from though.

My mum lives in a Dorset beach resort. She keeps going on about how the locals aren’t going to the beaches, and everyone who goes is driving from miles away. Well if the locals arent going, then it can’t be because of the visitors that the r rate is increasing in that area. But I’m sure many of the visitors are infecting each other and taking the virus back to their towns.

I live near some NT beauty spots. They are similar to the beaches - many cars and hoards of people. It’s not just the beaches that are affected.

Tourists are doing what the government said is allowed. You need to be cross with the government and write to your MP. Not slagging off the people obeying the rules.

Weston super mare in particularly as a spike which in mind mind is obviously because it's a seaside town
It may seem "obvious" to you but you are incorrect. There were issues at Weston hospital with infection control e.g. nurses working on both covid and non-covid wards so therefore cross contaminating.
Also it is a small hospital which regularly closes the A and E department when busy anyway, it's not like this was exceptional circumstances.

How do you explain why there havent been "spikes" at hospitals in Bournemouth, Brighton, Blackpool and so on, if it's all just down to tourists visiting?

I know they are allowed on the beaches but only in groups up to 6 and 2 metres apart. They are not following the rules if they aren't social distancing.

I know about WGH and it's bloody annoying but surely that can't be the only reason for the rise in the R rate? Looking at the pictures of crowds of people flocking to the beauty spots and beaches in the SW and other places it must have had some influence.

Thanks for the clarity about the R rate not being an accurate indication though and the reassurance we won't go into a local lockdown. We have been so lucky here in the SW and obviously followed the rules very well, the majority of people anyway, I would be so angry if it forced us into another lockdown.

Analysis: Two universities say South West R value is one



Jenny Walrond
Health Correspondent, BBC Spotlight

Two universities have said the R number in the South West is now one.
The R value tells us how many people catch coronavirus from each infected patient and it needs to be below one in order for the virus to die out.
Both the University of Cambridge and The London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine put the R value for the South West at one.
But government figures show that the greater South West, which includes Gloucestershire and Wiltshire, has the lowest number of coronavirus cases (7,766) and the lowest rate of infections by population (138.9 per 100,000 people)
This means we have fewer cases but those cases are more likely to be passed on to someone else.
If 100 people had coronavirus in the South West and the R value is one, between them they would pass it on to another 100 people.
Somewhere like the West Midlands with a higher number of cases but a lower R value of 0.8 might have 1,000 people with the virus who between them pass it on to another 800.
We need to be careful about the statistics because not everyone who has the virus is tested and with low overall numbers here it is easy for a small local outbreak such as the one around Weston-super-Mare to skew the figures for the whole region.

Very interesting sloth, thanks.

I am angry with the government about its been handled. I think previous PM would have handled it so much better. But I don't feel there is any point writing to my local MP, they don't listen and just do what they want despite public opinion anyway.

Surely the ‘tourists’ crowding your beaches are not locals? Have they been spreading it around the supermarkets on day visits? I honestly think there would be minimum risk to locals but maybe I’m over simplifying it.

Agree with pp those in tourist areas have caused yourself harm because of the treatment of tourist I know of several people who have said they would never give Cornwall their business ever again after what they have heard.

To be clear I have not been anywhere during lockdown.

I know about WGH and it's bloody annoying but surely that can't be the only reason for the rise in the R rate? Looking at the pictures of crowds of people flocking to the beauty spots and beaches in the SW and other places it must have had some influence.

Think of it like this. Say there is only one case in the whole of the SW, and that was at Weston-super-mare. That person is a bit careless and sees lots of people in the course of their work anyway, and they give it to 3 people. The R for the region is now 3.0, regardless of total lack of spread elsewhere.

That’s why R is only useful alongside prevalence.

What are the chances of community transmission now in London and on trains etc?

i just read that to establish the R rate, the scientists have to work backwards,
so not the gospel truth we think

as soon as the restrictions were lifted slightly, along with the hot weather, idiots travelled for miles, and I am sure some locals, immediately came to the beaches in their 000s making the virus spread.

You've said it yourself there - restrictions were lifted

Boris Johnson told people they could travel and they could go to beaches. So that's what they did.

I'm really really tired of hearing the word 'idiots' applied to ordinary people following the guidance.

The R rate went up because of Weston General Hospital. The outbreak was in the hospital due to poor infection control, not from tourists and it was contained in the hospital. The rates in the SW are still among the lowest in the country

This.

idiots travelled for miles, and I am sure some locals, immediately came to the beaches in their 000s making the virus spread

No they didn't. They'd been in lockdown for weeks, it's highly unlikely they made the virus spread as they probably didn't have it. And anyway if they weren't local they wouldn't be contributing to the SW R rate, they'd be contributing to their own.

Im im the same area as you and feel exactly the same, as do most of the people i know.... people who live here! Im not sure where you our exactly but my local council issued advice telling locals to stay away from our local beaches! Crazy!

How do you know the people on the beach arent local. How local is "local"? Can you drive 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 60 minutes? Or does it have to be walking distance from your house to be allowed? If the issue you have is people are meeting in groups of more than 6 then it's actually far more likely to be locals meeting friends on a local beach- people dont tend to arrange to meet friends somewhere which is 4 hours drive from home.

Looking at the pictures of crowds
Many of the photos are not actually from this week and/or use telephoto lenses to make people look closer together than they are. The media love to cause a stir.

www.businessinsider.com/social-distancing-images-camera-trick-2020-4

I work in media. It's very easy using camera angles to manipulate the image to make it look like people are closer and the beach is busier.