Local lockdowns....

[Derbygerbil]

... and the threat of them would be a good way to maintain “good” behaviour re social distancing etc. and if I were the Government I’d be looking at flexing this option.

For instance, “we’ll open shops etc. on 15 June, but only if your R is below 1.” If an area was above 1, shops wouldn’t open for a week until things improved. People in those areas would be outraged and blame would be apportioned in every which direction, and the peer pressure for people to curtail “risky” behaviours would become enormous. Do it once, and it will be unlikely to happen again...

It feels like Brexit all over again.

The reality is that most people don’t understand the complexity of the science (myself included) and so there is a lot of misunderstanding. I actually think the daily figures are now doing more harm than good.

There is also an awful lot of political cherry picking of data and the media play a big role in that.

Also I couldn’t care less if they open shops anyway. There is nothing I have needed that I couldn’t get online, and there is no way I’m rushing out shopping to queue, be scared to touch things that I don’t go on to buy and most likely have to wear a mask while doing so. So if I was going to have my friends or my mum round (I’m not, but if I was) it certainly would be no deterrent.

@LilyPond2
Yes, I suspect you are right. If lockdown prevents seeding of new infections, then preventing regional travel for anything but essential matters would help. But returning areas to a full lockdown as a “punishment” for “bad” behaviour, that is not acceptable as far as I am concerned.

Most people have taken the lockdown very seriously, and those that haven’t would continue to flout the guidance.

There is also an awful lot of political cherry picking of data and the media play a big role in that.

If it's political cherry picking then I'd say the politicians in charge are playing the biggest role in that.

@Fliesandpies

The guardian will highlight data that portrays the government in a poor light, the daily mail will highlight the positives. I’m not saying the politicians don’t do it too but the media are absolutely driven by their own agenda a lot of the time.

I'm in the NW and my childminder is in the Tameside Borough where they have received a letter saying they are "strongly recommended" to close settings and schools until July 22nd. So my childminder is closed. They called the LA to ask if it was compulsory and was told despite the ambiguous letter, yes they DO have to close.

However Manchester and Stockport have sent a letter acknowledging the increase in R yet say they don't think the risk is high enough to close settings and schools so they can carry on as the infections are lowering overall.

So now, my childminder is closed, but childminders half a mile away are allowed to stay open!

I'm fuming.

Sorry, June 22nd. Not July.

The guardian will highlight data that portrays the government in a poor light, the daily mail will highlight the positives. I’m not saying the politicians don’t do it too but the media are absolutely driven by their own agenda a lot of the time

The media certainly are driven by an agenda but in the matter of R number I think they have basically reported the information given out.

The gov have shamelessly messed with the data to try to dodge bad news.

That would create huge incentive to not have app on phone, not report your illness to authorities, if you thought your area would suffer for it.

Well yes but there is huge complexity around R. It’s not as simple as R < 1 = good, R > 1 = bad.

Reporting it simplistically (as many media outlets choose to do) doesn’t actually allow people to properly judge the risk that it presents.

R has been fluctuating around 1 (sometimes above and sometimes below) in Germany for several weeks. In itself it isn’t necessarily hugely problematic as I understand it. It needs to be read in conjunction with lots of other factors.

I think it was a mistake to ever introduce the R rate into it - as you say Sunshinegirl82 it is too complex to be accurately presented in the briefing so only adds to public confusion.

Schools in the northwest are delaying opening because the R number is 1.01. Not heard anything about the shops delaying opening.
Children are missing more of their education they have no play areas open they are paying the price for people flouting the rules.
It just doesn't punish the right people

stressbucket1 it is not necessarily people “flouting the rules” which causes the effective R to rise (which is one reason why the OP’s suggestion is so objectionable). It’s not as simple as that. I agree that it shouldn’t be used as the sole marker for reopening schools

Children are missing more of their education they have no play areas open they are paying the price for people flouting the rules

If it was all to do with 'flouters' the whole country would still have sky-high infection rates. A blame game isn't going to be any benefit to the children either.

I can’t wait until I never hear the word ‘flout’ again.

God yes. Yet another thoughtless, knee-jerk, all-purpose bashing-word