above R

[randomer]

so its above R where I live. In about 7 days or so the shops will open and more people will mix....what am I supposed to do please Boris?

@whenwillthemadnessend

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/coronavirus-r-number-north-west-18370083

In this article it says figures have been calculated by Public Health England and Cambridge University

@madroid

Exactly - by procrastinating at the beginning of this ie at the start of March and abandoning Track and Trace early on, the pain of this virus both economy-wise and death rates etc has been prolonged.

And now they're half heartedly not taking enough action again.

The r value reported in the news is modelled using fatality data and is not very accurate. The covid zoe modelling gives a better picture of changes at the regional level. Scroll to 26 minutes in their webinar here and it provides the regional graphs

covid.joinzoe.com/post/second-wave-covid

You will see that infections in the sw are low and falling. London is much more of a concern as rates are flat suggesting the r is at around 1.

I recommend listening to the whole webinar and downloading the app, it is very informative

You're focusing on the wrong thing, as the BBC reports, infections in the community have effectively 'collapsed' in the last few weeks but mass testing is showing a very high rate of asymptomatic cases among care home staff and residents and NHS staff, this is where the R rate is coming in as before now it has been spreading unchecked in these environments. Its nothing to do with what's happening in supermarkets or beaches, and 'locking down' the hospital at Weston is exactly the right step to take, not the community as there wasn't a problem there. That's the problem with releasing data that no one understands!

You can't take the R rate to necessarily indicate risk of community transmission. The R rate increased in the SW mostly due to an outbreak at Weston General Hospital which was caused by poor infection control within the hospital and led to hundreds of staff being tested who normally wouldn't be.

The biggest hospital in Bristol in contrast, hasn't recorded a CV death since May 23rd and reported new infections in Bristol are low.

9000 cases a day and yet track & trace 'staff' are sitting around playing games & watching Netflix. They want to work, why isn't this working better already? FFS - they've had 5 months to sort this out.

The R is too high to be easing these restrictions - unless you're championing 'herd immunity' ...

Encourage people to stay at home & don't be part of the 'pushing the boundaries'. There are plenty of others doing that, all we can do is not contribute to it & try to encourage others not to. Even on here, so many threads about people letting their kids play out & with lots of different friends, the kids staying for tea etc

I think part of the problem is that people don't understand exponential growth & have a 'not me' mentality.

@Tfoot75. There is evidence that the high level of infections in care homes and hospitals is fueling spread in the community.

The zoe data largely excludes care homes as it is reliant on app users reporting symptoms and being swab tested. Care home residents are unlikely to be app users although it should pick up on some staff and a small number of those reporting on behalf of residents.

As others have said, the R number is less significant when the actual number of infections is low. Currently it's about 1 in 1000. And if you did happen to come across someone with the virus you'd have to be in close proximity with them for a sustained period. The odds are good but stay in you want.

The other important thing the webinar is saying is regarding a second wave. The uk are loosening restrictions with a far higher number of cases circulating in the community than other countries.

During the summer we may just about manage to maintain a steady state or small drop in the number of cases. However come the autumn when people move to more indoor environments it will fuel a rise in the numbers and a second wave. Other countries will have a much better chance of avoiding this as their numbers will be at a much lower starting point.

The researchers are pretty condemming of the uk government's approach.

@timeforlunch. There are around 162,000 infections currently so about 1 in 400. There is a lot of regional variation. In some locations it is 1 in 100.

9000 cases a day and yet track & trace 'staff' are sitting around playing games & watching Netflix. They want to work, why isn't this working better already? FFS - they've had 5 months to sort this out

Where have you got the 9000 figure from? The ONS said yesterday that it was around 5000 per day, down from 7000 last week and 8000 the week before?
The contact tracers can also only work with known, tested cases (1600 yesterday). So really, the 5000 figure isn’t relevant in terms of contact tracing.
An issue with the contact tracing at the moment is that the people with diagnosed cases have far fewer relevant contacts that were planned for. Which is to be expected really, as we’re still in lockdown (I know people think we’re ‘back to normal’ but actually all we can do is meet up to 6 people outside from 2m away). So if I picked it up from somewhere, over the past 11 weeks relevant contacts (within 2m of someone for more than 15 mins) would be 0, other than the members of my own household.

9400 daily new cases

9000 cases a day and yet track & trace 'staff' are sitting around playing games & watching Netflix. They want to work, why isn't this working better already? FFS - they've had 5 months to sort this out

It’s nowhere near 9000 cases a day. Stop believing the biased media. Oh, and if people would stop slamming down their phones to them, maybe they’d have something to do

Our council has now advised schools not open until at least the 22nd June as R rate is over 1.
There is also talk of local lockdown but how would this work if people worked over borders etc? They could never police the greater Manchester borders not enough police.
Feels like this is being hushed up on the news.

weepingwillow22 the ONS said there were around 53,000 cases in the UK, based on their most recent data. 1 in 1000. Down from 1 in 400.

The ons data is based on much smaller samples than the zoe data and is unlikely to be as accurate.

@Everythingsgoingmyway. Hi, where are you getting that info from? Everything I can find online says the opposite for Bristol.
Thanks.

But the Zoe data is based mainly on people reporting symptoms isn’t it? Not tests? I input symptoms into Zoe a couple of weeks ago which strongly indicted I had CV. I didn’t.

so its above R where I live. In about 7 days or so the shops will open and more people will mix....what am I supposed to do please Boris?

Why are you asking Boris what to do when you so clearly despise him? Do you seriously lack the wit to decide for yourself what is safe and what isn’t? And before you start with the “have to go to work stuff“, I’ve worked throughout the entire peak long before there was any government guidelines on workplace safety, and none of our staff caught it. If you don’t think your workplace is doing enough to keep you safe, report them to the H&S executive. They will come round and make them comply.

If you think shops aren’t safe, don’t go to them, same for beaches, parks, schools and everything else.

It’s nowhere near 9000 cases a day. Stop believing the biased media. Oh, and if people would stop slamming down their phones to them, maybe they’d have something to do

Zoe is not biased media

Many people employed to do the track & trace have not been given any contacts to follow up on. Nothing to do with phones being slammed down! I said NO WORK, not no results 🙄

Well I guess that’s because they employed 17000 contact tracers and only 1600- 2000 cases are being confirmed each day? There are bound to be some with no work.

@Drivingdownthe101

But the Zoe data is based mainly on people reporting symptoms isn’t it? Not tests? I input symptoms into Zoe a couple of weeks ago which strongly indicted I had CV. I didn’t.

The zoe data is now based on tests. They are working with phe and arranging swab tests for those reporting symptoms on the app. If you listen to the webinar I posted above it explains.

Surely track and trace can’t really work as intended until lockdown is lifted? As at the moment, people have very very few people who they’ve been within 2m of for 15 mins, because we’re social distancing.

So why aren’t all these agencies (ONS and Zoe for example) working together to get an accurate picture? And why are the press mainly reporting the ONS data over the Zoe data? Genuine question, it just doesn’t seem to make any sense.
I input my symptoms into Zoe and got told I’d be sent a test but it didn’t arrive. I arranged a test through the NHS instead, which was negative. My symptoms have since been attributed to something else entirely, but I’d have assumed CV if I wasn’t tested.