above R

[randomer]

so its above R where I live. In about 7 days or so the shops will open and more people will mix....what am I supposed to do please Boris?

Really have no words for Matt Hancock tonight.
Admitted the North West was a problem and they had everything they needed to lock down a certain area.
So what happens now , seems nothing. Protests organised for our small town tomorrow.
I worry that they actually have no idea what is needed for the local lock downs.

Well they only need to copy what the continent is doing

It's sometimes handy being a few weeks behind, to check what works

I do blame the government. Strutting around, crowing about Brexit, lie after lie after lie, Yes indeed I blame them.

Are there any statistics to confirm whether the R has risen due to a rise in care home/ hospital cases or a rise in the community?

I get they have mishandled it all. But people voted them in (and will again)
However, the beaches near me have been packed and no sign of distancing. Huge bloody queues at IKEA etc. It's mad.

Talking about lies, I live in the south west. Hancock said that the government imposed a successful local lockdown in Weston last week. The hospital closed to new cases, true, but our beaches and parks were still full. There was no local lockdown, it was a lie

SW is high I think. Nothing different happening so far. Where is Boris and his “ whack-a-mole”?

Yes he mentioned them over and over about they contained a local flare up in Weston Supermare. It seems he was on about the hospital closing due to an influx.
If that’s the finite measure of a local lockdown I’m very worried.

@backintime Unfortunately the Gov don't seem to publish those, but I can kind of see why - the small the numbers involved, the harder R is to calculate, and it will swing wildly in small samples, so it's not very helpful.

However, the SAGE minutes from May 5 do say -

"The overall epidemic can be considered as three separate but interacting epidemics: In the community; in hospitals and in care homes.

"The overall reproduction number, R, is in the range 0.5 to 0.9. If health and social care settings are excluded it is likely to be at the lower end of this range."

We got this message today from our local council in SW.

"As you may have heard, an increase in the R value or the rate of onward infections has been announced today across the country. This is to be expected as we gradually move out of lockdown and although in theSouth West, R is 1..."

The South West was due to an outbreak amongst staff in the hospital in Weston. Not in the rest of the south west though!

I live in the north west, our R is above 1 despite Hancock lying his face off in the briefing.

I wonder what the North West and South West have in common

@madasamarchhare

I think people need to take responsibility for themselves. It doesn’t matter what the government says you can do. If you aren’t happy then don’t do it! Really, idle you wash your hands frequently. Maintain social distancing when out and go out as infrequently as possible then really you should be reasonably safe. Just because the shops are open doesn’t mean you have to go.

That only works if you don’t have to work, or can work from home.

I also live in the NW. It's funny how these things are billed as absolutely critical when they're OK, the R must NOT go above 1 or we'll have to lock back down maybe even harder they said.

Now it is going above 1, it's only part of the picture and we should carry on regardless. Its really hard to know what to think!

Also depends on why the r is up is it up in community or in hospital it's never explained which , been a rise of cases in my area but a lot linked to one hospital , but there is also the possibility of cases rise etc there will be local lockdowns in these areas

@stary yes as previous poster said in Germany they have shut down certain places if a flare up as in Weston , it was the hospital that has the problem not the whole area . So we may see hospitals closed or care homes or even a shop if a cluster as well as maybe a whole area
But maybe people need to start being sensible as well crowing at beaches , protests etc with no social distancing
Fine to do these things but with caution

If they know the r is up due to a hospital or care home then that isn't in the community so prob why no total local lockdown , read previous poster in another country they are doing similar
Finally reducing numbers as the busiest beaches in south west , my more local one hasn't been too bad people have been being sensible on the whole

I live south of Preston. Usually I shop in Tescos and the social distancing measures and restrictions are excellent. Yesterday I went to Morrison's on Preston's docks and there was no cleaning of trolleys, no limits in numbers of people, no 2m lines taped to the floor and no directional arrows. In short.. there were no measures in place apart from a screen around the cashier / till. People number into me, chatted in the aisles and it was easy to think there had never been a pandemic.

@msmith501 that's my usual supermarket! I'm shielding so getting sainsburys deliveries at the minute thankfully

For those wondering how much of an effect a tiny change in R rate has.

@Astabarista - that's it all right.

I'm in the northwest and also got a sinking feeling when I saw this.

It's all very well saying 'well people are stupid for crowding on beaches' etc.

I think the government has been monumentally stupid for allowing people to travel all over. Of course people will go to the Lake District and to the beaches in the South West if you allow them to just 'Stay Alert' rather than stay at home.

I'm a nurse, and look after vulnerable patients. And yes, I'm very worried on how the second wave is going to be. If the R rate continues on this trajectory we could be seeing the second wave in the next 3 weeks.

Unless of course the Track and Trace system is fully operational and tracking every single individual with the virus.

So local lockdowns next then?

For info that's effectively how the French "unlockdown" worked/is working...the different departments ( roughly county equivalents) have been relaxing the restrictions on differing dates dependent on the various local factors such as number of cases, how saturated ICU is with cases in local hospitals etc.

According to the ZOE app. South west is still under 0.5 and the north east is under 1 everywhere Barr Manchester which is 1

Maybe the figures you are seeing are from care homes. Where are you getting your figures?

It's all well and good saying oh don't worry, the r is only above 1 because the transmission rates are higher in the hospital but not the community.

All those people who work in hospitals are coming home to the community when they leave work. You can't separate them.

Track and trace is a joke. I was in contact with someone who had it 2 weeks ago and no one has contacted me.

Also, for people coming into the country why don't they isolate them in hotels to be sure they do it? Like other countries do.

We'll never be rid of this bastard virus at this rate (literally!)