Daily new infections

[BamboozledandBefuddled]

The ONS are estimating that daily new infections are down from 8,000 to 5,600. Nice to have some good news Rather strange though, as surely the VE Day spike should be well and truly on top us by now? Maybe we'll have to wait for the 'IKEA spike' or the 'crammed-on-beaches spike' instead.

There is no VE day spike!

The numbers have been showing that for 2 weeks now, there never was going to be one despite many posters being desparate for it too happen.

I am concerned about a possible spike due to protests as there was much closer contact for longer times with face to face contact. But I will be delighted to be wrong.

Well I didn't think there was one but someone on here was doing some very complicated twisting of figures the other day, to try and convince me that it was going to happen any day now

I'm one of the weirdos that thinks April was possibly the second wave.

I'm also one of those convinced I possibly had Covid in December.

So I'm hoping if what I believe is true, then we are on the downward slope.

If April WAS the second wave, then the first wave was all mixed up with flu?

Good news!

I saw this and thought it was very encouraging.

Let’s just hope there’s no protest spike!

@Thighmageddon

I'm one of the weirdos that thinks April was possibly the second wave.

I'm also one of those convinced I possibly had Covid in December.

So I'm hoping if what I believe is true, then we are on the downward slope.

Welcome fellow weirdo I think it's 90% certain we've had the second wave. Have or instead of a pasting!

I’m also hanging on to the hope that this was the 2nd wave. More and more reports suggest that the virus has been around months longer than first thought.

Incubation is typically 5-6 days (range 2-14) and worsening of symptoms to require hospitalisation is around 6 days from onset.

so it would take 2-3 weeks for a change to show up.

It's been 4 weeks since the VE Bank Hol

@ Thighmageddon Completely agree! Downward trends all over from those ahead of us...fingers crossed.

@BolloxtoGender

If April WAS the second wave, then the first wave was all mixed up with flu?

There's numerous reports of people being admitted to hospital with a flu like virus and pneumonia but it wasn't flu.

From what I've read second waves are more deadly, this would fit with what a growing group of people think is what's happened.

Other countries are looking in to the possibility of it being here earlier, we just didn't know what we were looking for.

Interesting new article from December re elevated flu deaths

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-deaths-hospital-ill-patient-gps-vaccine-phe-a9244201.html%3famp

I'm one of the weirdos that thinks April was possibly the second wave.

I'm also one of those convinced I possibly had Covid in December.

I'm going with this as well, until I'm proved wrong. Please God I won't be...

From what I've asked on MN, waves are just feelings.
I wonder when folk will declare covid was here in 2017.

I would love you to be right about April being the second wave. I can also see several people who had "covid-19" in Dec/Jan. The only thing that stops me from believing it is that the excess deaths in early 2020 don't evidence it. So did people not die in large numbers during the first wave?

Also think this is actually the second wave, triggered by the exodus to Italy over February half term and actually looking for it rather than assuming flu.

Fucking hope so. My 6 year old is feral.

@howdidwegetheremary I would have thought that deaths in hospitals attributed to the flu would have actually been tested for flu? So unlikely to be due to coronavirus?

It is very interesting....retrospectively youve got to hope a lot of people did have it then!

@lljkk

From what I've asked on MN, waves are just feelings. I wonder when folk will declare covid was here in 2017.

Every discussion we ever had about the possibility of it being here from November last year onwards, you always appear telling us we are deluded.

Why can you not consider it was a possibility? It's a matter of weeks, I live in an area of high numbers arriving from China for tourism and universities.

@stuckindoors77 I've read several articles that believe the virus mutated after the possible 'first wave', becoming both more infectious and more likely to cause death.

Utini perhaps yes but there’s also plenty of reports of people who were tested when presenting with severe flu and did not test positive, all doctors could conclude what the illness was viral so who knows?

I think given that more and more reports are finding cases of COVID in Europe late last year make it a real possibility.

@Utini If someone with heart, lung problems, etc died with flu, I'm not sure that they would actually be tested for it as actual cause of death may have been given as heart failure. I've read that there was also a slightly higher incidence than usual if death from pneumonia, which may link with Covid earlier than we thought.

@Thighmageddon Is that in the south-west? Something I read suggested they weren't as badly affected as the rest of the country and attributed that to some immunity during a first wave?

Let's hope you're right!

I also think we have hit our second spike, and believe this virus was around earlier. I was really ill beginning of February for approx 3 weeks. Have never felt so poorly all my life - struggled breathing, temperature through the roof, couldn't do anything. Even now a few months on i still have no sense of smell or taste!

There has been no VE Day spike which is a good sign. The next 2/3 weeks will be crucial to see what happens after the crowded beaches and protests happening.