Daily new infections

[BamboozledandBefuddled]

The ONS are estimating that daily new infections are down from 8,000 to 5,600. Nice to have some good news Rather strange though, as surely the VE Day spike should be well and truly on top us by now? Maybe we'll have to wait for the 'IKEA spike' or the 'crammed-on-beaches spike' instead.

@stuckindoors77 I've read several articles that believe the virus mutated after the possible 'first wave', becoming both more infectious and more likely to cause death

Interesting, as long as it doesn't mutate in the same direction for the third wave.

I understand it's usual for the second wave to be more virulent than the first but I don't think it's as clear-cut about a third wave. There's been reports in the last couple of weeks about the virus getting weaker though, which is hopefully a good sign.

I had never heard this, regarding the second wave. Very interesting and my goodness, I hope it's right!

It was looking like we were plateauing, so does this latest news mean it's looking less likely?

I wonder this too because people in my family had v. bad pneumonia/flu in January.

And I read this
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939

Just seems more likely to me he had Covid in January than he had pneumonia in January then asymptomatic covid shortly after

@Thighmageddon, I had no idea I was so important or noticed. Not keeping a spreadsheet, are you?

I did wonder what those of you, who are convinced that you had covid in autumn 2019, think that your type of illness was being misdiagnosed as. Why was this circulating covid so easily missed. And why do 90% of those tested with influenza type symptoms still not have covid, which combination of things do you believe:

1. Covid has mutated, so it was milder in autumn 2019 but is now a severe disease or much more contagious
2. people with covid in autumn 2019 were misdiagnosed with influenza (because influenza tests are unreliable) -- or they even had both influenza and covid at same time
3. for some reason covid stayed out of nursing homes in autumn 2019 even though covid was very widely circulating in autumn 2019
4. Everyone was brilliant at social distancing in autumn 2019 even thru Chrirstmas and NYears period, which is why it didn't spread then -- but then social distance went to increasingly to crap in January 2020
5. covid19 only spreads a lot when it's rainy, so it spread a lot in very rainy autumn 2019 but disappeared in sunny April-May 2020
6. the weekly national influenza reports are hopelessly wrong and unreliable, hence they only reported moderate intensity in December 2019

Itll be next week then for us to know whether those going to beaches and parks before official announcement cause a spike

@Thighmageddon I’m with you.

There are also some encouraging reports that some people do have immunity to this due to having another cold like virus in recent years which triggers a similar immune t-cell response. This would explain why, despite being a highly infectious virus, quite often only one person in the household gets it.

I actually think more of us have had this than we realise and more are immune than we thought. This will help the virus come under control and hopefully we’ll carry on the downward trend.

I didn’t expect a VE spike or a ‘people on crowded beaches’ spike as we know now the virus is much less likely to spread outdoors. It’s 15 minutes of close contact inside. We need to learn from all this knowledge and focus on the infection reduction measures that really count!

But it the same for anything infectious, indoors is always more riskier due to less air circulating isnr that why people always say at work dont ait next to me if your feeling ill I don't want to catch your cold.

@lljkk don't flatter yourself, no I don't have a spreadsheet but when one person continuously refuses to even entertain or discuss a possibility of an idea, I tend to remember them.

Well yes so why would there be a spike after the crowded beaches then? Even in parks you don’t often get closer than 1m to a stranger so just because the parks were ‘crowded’ doesn’t mean this will lead to a spike.

We have seen endless pictures for about a month now of these ‘crowded’’ scenes yet still the trend remains downwards.

The R values have gone up over the last couple of weeks though an NW England is now averaging above 1.
London is still below one but has had a dramatic increase since a couple of weeks ago.
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/coronavirus-r-number-north-west-18370083

I'm not saying this as evidence that covid was around earlier but I think it is interesting and it might add to the discussion - I work in a care home and very few of the residents that have had covid, including those that we sadly lost, showed typical symptoms. Some showed none at all, some simply spiked a temp for day or two. Very few had similar symptoms to each other, even a husband and wife who shared a room. It didn't sweep through like noro does and everyone has the same symptoms. If we weren't looking for covid, we might have just thought "ooh we've had quite a run of illness lately". Anecdotally we do tend to get little clusters of (unrelated) deaths. Especially at times when we have a run of end of life admissions. I'm not saying no one would have thought it odd, but if lots of people get sick with different symptoms there's no reason to link those illnesses iyswim.

[quote lljkk]@Thighmageddon, I had no idea I was so important or noticed. Not keeping a spreadsheet, are you?

I did wonder what those of you, who are convinced that you had covid in autumn 2019, think that your type of illness was being misdiagnosed as. Why was this circulating covid so easily missed. And why do 90% of those tested with influenza type symptoms still not have covid, which combination of things do you believe:

1. Covid has mutated, so it was milder in autumn 2019 but is now a severe disease or much more contagious
2. people with covid in autumn 2019 were misdiagnosed with influenza (because influenza tests are unreliable) -- or they even had both influenza and covid at same time
3. for some reason covid stayed out of nursing homes in autumn 2019 even though covid was very widely circulating in autumn 2019
4. Everyone was brilliant at social distancing in autumn 2019 even thru Chrirstmas and NYears period, which is why it didn't spread then -- but then social distance went to increasingly to crap in January 2020
5. covid19 only spreads a lot when it's rainy, so it spread a lot in very rainy autumn 2019 but disappeared in sunny April-May 2020
6. the weekly national influenza reports are hopelessly wrong and unreliable, hence they only reported moderate intensity in December 2019[/quote]
7. Perfectly logical, reasonable and being backed by scientists
8. I haven't seen any references to Covid being mistaken for flu. There are several references to people being diagnosed with an unidentified virus. There also seems too be evidence of a slight increase of cases in viral pneumonia.
9. Did it? No cases of unidentified or potentially misdiagnosed viruses in nursing homes? How astonishing! Where has the suggestion come from that Covid was 'widely circulating'? I haven't seen that mentioned.
10. Now you're being silly
11. See No.4
12. Because we've been told all along 'it's not flu' and if it was present here it was unidentified and not mistaken for flu so why would it be included in flu statistics?

357 today. Seems very high again.

I think we'll be seeing a lot of yo yoing with numbers now. Those bar charts have been less predictable for a week or so.

It's another sign that things have changed. As Patrick Valllance et al have been saying, it's a slow decline, almost a plateau as R hovers around 1.

@Thighmageddon

I'm one of the weirdos that thinks April was possibly the second wave.

I'm also one of those convinced I possibly had Covid in December.

So I'm hoping if what I believe is true, then we are on the downward slope.

Another fellow weirdo here.

@SanityDecreasing

357 today. Seems very high again.

They weren't all deaths for yesterday though. One was even from the end of March apparently.

@SanityDecreasing

357 today. Seems very high again.

Those are not the previous day's numbers. Mum died March 31st, her death was included in the April 14 daily total due to how and when the numbers are collected.

The deaths are all over the place as they are adding in from over a month ago! Up then down.. It’s hard to see the true picture I think but new infections are down today.

@Delatron I think the theory of a “natural immunity” is a good one. It would explain;

Why not everyone on the cruise ships and US naval ship got it.
Why not everyone living in the same household gets it.
Why the infection rate is falling in all countries despite opening up.

I read one report today that suggests up to 80% of the population could be immune (I think that was a statistical / mathematical model rather than testing results).

There are also super spreaders and people who don’t seem to pass it on (children?) which might explain how it could have been circulating in lower numbers before March if not many super spreaders were infected?

It’s all very interesting and I wonder if that author who predicted the virus years ago and also predicted it will disappear as quickly as it appeared will be right again?

I just want to clarify that I am just musing and not trying to imply that I am speaking with any authority or qualifications!

@StarcourtMall Yes I read the article about the 80% immunity and it would explain a lot.

So many cases where only one person in the household is affected. Think Prince Charles and Camilla. And yes it would explain the cruise ship stats. I’ve known friends with this virus whereas the husband doesn’t get it and vice versa. In all cases of friends locally that have had it the kids have either been unaffected or had a headache/ mild fever for a day.

Agree, I’m no expert but it’s interesting. It’s like a jigsaw puzzle and every week we get more and more info.

Delatron in our house it was the people most likely to become very unwell that had suspected CV the least and one of us were comp,early unaffected.

My dh is 55, has heart problems, is over weight and high blood pressure yet he just had a more mild cough and no fever.

Yes @Thighmageddon my friend had a similar situation. She was quite ill for a few weeks but her husband, overweight, late 40s didn’t get a single symptom.

How could April be a second wave? There would have had to have been intervention measures to lower the first wave, in order for it be classed as a second wave, and not just one big massive wave?