who are the new cases & where did they get contract it

[mumwon]

What I wonder is who is contracting coronavirus in the UK & how did they get & what was the source?
This is particularly relevant regarding the opening of lockdown & whether & how soon & how severe the second wave is likely to be.
ie how dangerous is it?
Does anybody have any access to those kind of stats?

I don’t have access to the stats, however it’s easy to assume the majority of new cases are coming from asymptotic people. The thing with covid, is it’s a chain, from getting it you can be contagious for up to 14 days, so it’s easy to have been passed around asymptotically for the last 10 weeks, with a certain percentage showing mild symptoms, and unfortunately severe symptoms.

Hundreds of thousands of international travellers are arriving at our airports. Including from very infected countries like Sweden and Brazil. No checks or quarantine before they head to their UK destinations - often on public transport.

The majority of cases are being contracted in hospitals and care homes.

The majority of cases are being contracted in hospitals and care homes
Is that it? I have a friend who's a doctor on a covid ward, they say the same.

I've seen published that without any shutdown or social distancing the R would be about 3. Given all the people you would come into contact with on a normal day, that doesn't sound like much.

ToffeeYoghurt

Can't quite work out if you're joking with that comment. Do you really think most cases, or even a significant number, are still imported?

Hundreds of thousands of international arrivals.

Note most countries either closed their borders or implemented checks and quarantine. Proper quarantine so not like our planned (from 8 June) head from the airport on public transport and only then send isolate.

fullfact.org/immigration/coronavirus-lockdown-arrivals-infections/

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/95000-have-entered-uk-from-abroad-during-coronavirus-lockdown

For those who want left right balance, it was reported in the mail too.

KenDodd - I can't say whether it's most cases but I doubt it helps lower our infection rate.

Flights from highly infected countries like Sweden arrive at the airport. Four from Stockholm into Heathrow just yesterday. Passengers head off untested onto busy public transport. People don't think that's an infection risk?

I know of at least three people who have contracted the virus in hospital. I know nobody else who has had it other than these three people.

People don't think that's an infection risk?

I think that horse bolted in Jan/Feb. Considering we are one of the worse affected countries in the world (or is it the worse?) I think airport checks coming in are almost pointless now.

The majority of cases are being contracted in hospitals and care homes.

No they aren't. We have 8,000 new cases per day in the community (56,000 per week) and that doesn't include hospitals or care homes.

Everyone I know who has tested positive for it is either an NHS worker or carer.

Everyone I know who's tested positive weren't in hospitals or care homes or frontline workers of any kind

wheresmymojo
Do you know where they are coming from? Is it mostly passed between family members?

Hospitals and care homes are driving the infections according to Govt scientists. It’s in several papers today
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/11742455/coronavirus-r-rate-low-sage-scientists/amp/

I don't know anyone who's had it.

wheresmymojo

Where are you getting your information from?

I don't know...

A friend's sister died age 43 and quite possibly caught it from my friend (they don't know where they caught it from). She died about 5-6 weeks ago now so quite early on.

Two other friends, female and in 40s weren't hospitalised but both thought they were going to die at one point. Both ill for 8 weeks or so. Neither of them know where they caught it. Both caught it before lockdown (pretty much just as we went into lockdown).

Neighbour - 61 year old woman died last week but she'd been on a ventilator for 5 weeks so again, caught around the time of lockdown.

And I forgot that actually there is one I know who is frontline - another friends sister, 36, nurse, caught it at work as didn't have sufficient PPE. Again, very ill with it - in hospital but only for a few nights.

The estimated 8,000 a day does not include hospital in patients so NHS staff, their families and discharged patients who contracted it in hospital would be included.

From Sky News today - 8,000 per day does not include care homes or hospitals

Wheresmymojo, I can't link to other news sites but they make it clearer it is hospital (and care home) patients that are excluded, not hospital or care home acquired infections.

I know three people who have died- one in a carehome, one receiving visits from carers in their home and one was a definite hospital infection.
I also know two people who had the virus and were much younger- they were thought to have picked it up while socialising with friends.

Hundreds of thousands of international travellers are arriving at our airports.

The Guardian article says 95,000 travellers arrived between 1-26 April. Over half of whom were returning UK citizens. full fact.org says over 100,000 since lockdown (published on 21st May). Those are big numbers but not what most people would regard as “hundreds of thousands”. Throwing random figures about doesn’t make for a rational discussion.

Given that recent figures show that 50% of those WITH symptoms are not isolating I think it is fairly obvious.
And no the new arrivals to the UK are not the problem. There is such huge community transmission it is a mere drop in the ocean. And there are not exactly many countries where the incidence per 1000 is MORE than the UK so it is more likely new arrivals are diluting the numbers

Given that recent figures show that 50% of those WITH symptoms are not isolating I think it is fairly obvious.

Where did you read this? If true that's shocking that anyone could have such disregard for public safety. I'm sure Dominic Cummings hasn't helped.