How are people catching it?

[Buzzfrightyears]

Sorry if it’s a dumb question - currently off work sick with severe anxiety (which I had prior to this) please be kind to me.

If people are adhering to lockdown and only making essential journeys such as to get shopping how are so many people still catching this as ‘new cases’? Are they getting it from the supermarket? From their shopping being delivered? Or are these new cases the ones breaking lockdown?

I have developed agoraphobia and panic disorder so knowing where it’s being caught will help me a little bit.

@BKT2 I'm glad I'm not the only one who gets their scientific knowledge from supermarket workers! Xxx

As OP suffers from severe anxiety and agoraphobia, I would have said that anecdotal evidence from those of us at the coal face may be reassuring, and therefore helpful. OP didn't ask for purely Scientific knowledge, and she also needs to know that there are plenty of us out there working with no ill effects or signs of infection.

It's hospital staff in my area that make up the majority of those testing positive. As I understand it track and trace will not isolate co workers or patient contacts of those NHS staff.

The majority of cases are being caught in care homes and hospitals now
I'm. Not sure this is correct. According to the ONS survey about 8k people a day on the community (excluding care homes and hospitals) are catching it. The scientist acknowledged that is not a small number. Prof Van Tam. Was asked today who is catching it he said they didn't know. But I think it could be people who have a lot of contact with the public so it's not possible for them to socially distance.

The 8000 a day is based on sentinel surveillance assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888254/COVID19_Epidemiological_Summary_w22_Final.pdf and it works by so many people being tested and a percentage of them testing positive. There is an amount of error in there, but it does seem high. Hopefully TTI will help show clusters.

Here where I live we are getting one new case a day based on the figures coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=utlas&map=rate (you need to look daily or find local news reporting the change), BUT other areas are very different. We very much have hot spots that aren't being dealt with or discussed.

One of the reasons cases are up must be in part related to more testing. More tests, more positive results -- this is especially now that there is more testing of asymptomatic people who wouldn't have been tested before. Previously they were only testing people who it was almost certain that they it.

Not everyone is adhering strictly to lockdown (I saw a survey that said only approx 50% of the UK population claim to be sticking to it).

“Essential” work and shopping will inevitably entail virus transmission.

We can minimise it but we cannot stop it.

I bet its the households of those working in hospitals and care homes. That would be 8000 a week surely??? Many of them asymptomatic?

Inside care homes and hospitals.

From other people. Because 40% are NOT adhering to the lockdown rules. The risk is still small because the other 60% of us ARE adhering to lockdown.

During the briefing today, the deputy science officer bloke just said he doesn't know. I'm pretty sure no one on this thread knows better than he does.

In the press briefing, did the lady who asked this question also say that these cases are outside care one and hospital settings? I’m sure she did but I can’t remember for sure.

So is the 'number of cases' now based on testing and would include mild and asymptomatic cases whereas a few weeks ago would be based on people being ill enough to require medical attention?

Thanks for all the replies. I do know no one knows better than the scientists etc but it helps to have these things explained.

Now we are testing anyone that has symptoms, no matter how mild. So yes, we will be seeing more numbers because of that.

The 8000 a day is calculated by swabbing 45000 people at random (relatively) and finding people positive. That is then extrapolated to a population level.

I know someone who works in a nursing home and has taken no notice of the lockdown. They shop when they feel like it and have had family and friends round their house numerous times. I am so angry with them but they won’t listen to reason.

Strange so many people know the answer to this when the scientific officer today on the daily Coronavirus Update didn't know! Same question was asked by someone.

My neighbours have had bbqs two nights in a row, everyone and their dog has been round.

OP, I’m so sorry you’re feeling this way. I’ve had a period of crippling anxiety in my life over something and it really can be awful. Hang in there. You sound so lovely.

I also get 100% about not being able to escape this anywhere and the resulting fear fatigue and doom fatigue.

The only people I know to have caught it have done so through work, working in an office where the work couldn’t be done remotely (think a control room for traffic/airport, that sort of thing).

I’m no scientist, but thought I’d share what have read recently (Spectator and New York Times) about scientists’ emerging, though not final, views on transmission. It seems you can essentially catch it in two ways: direct hit from a lot of virus (like an infected person sneezing on you or sharing a cup with an infected person) and longer term exposure to smaller amounts of virus (eg being on public transport/indoors where people who have the virus have also been and have shed particles of it). It seems “long term” can be anything over an hour. The articles I read said socially distanced shopping is low risk because people don’t tend to spend much time there and the places are fairly well ventilated. They highlighted public transport and public loos as very risky, both because they are usually crammed with people/badly ventilated and there is a lot of scope for lots of people to shed virus and leave it on surfaces that others then touch. Where the exposure is only to shed particles, you need to be around that a while, it said. So taking a lift is low risk.

I’ve taken from all this that going in and out of places fairly quickly or for a walk and just passing someone is low risk, especially outdoors, as long as they don’t sneeze in my face!

I hope you are ok and 💐

Sorry I should have been clearer: with the public loo/public transport scenario and shed particles, the heightened risk lies in touching lots of surfaces and then your face, which is far easier to avoid say in a lift, especially if you cover your finger with your sleeve for buttons.

I’m waiting on a test result. I have been nowhere apart from infrequent tripe to shops.
If it’s not covid then I’ve managed to pick something up still.

Dd's boyfriend works in Tescos and not one person working there has caught coronavirus.

Dh has worked throughout this and neither of us know anyone who has had it (tested and confirmed).

My postman said last week that he hasn't heard of a single post office worker locally who has it. He also said he hasn't had a cold or flu in 17 years and he's handling packets and letters all the time.

All anecdotal but I hope they can be a bit of comfort. Panic disorder is absolutely awful OP you have my full sympathy x

The tests are often false negative. The odd admission gets through to a 'clean' ward. Then it spreads...

And some medical staff too.

I dont know anyone who has caught it not on hospital. (Not to say that no one has)

There are still millions of people going out to work in places like warehouses/manufacturing/food distribution/energy providers/construction etc as well as care/medical settings. Not everyone is staying at home... they can’t.

The 8000 per day estimate is based on the ONS community survey, which found that from the positive cases identified, only 30% reported symptoms. So the c2,500 positive cases per day are the symptomatic cases, and the rest of the 8000 are asymptomatic and in theory are spreading it to up to 1 other person in the community. Clearly an asymptomatic care worker or NHS worker would potentially spread to many more.

I don't understand the R rates though really, as the number of positive cases identified has dropped dramatically in the last month, more than halved along with massive increase in testing, suggesting R of far below 1, don't quite get that.

The positive symptomatic cases are all really quite geographically spread out according to ONS data, which is weird as well, no clusters as such just a steady drip in all areas.