How do you feel about SAGE advisers saying it's too early to ease lockdown restrictions?

[LittleFoxKit]

Just that really. In the past 24 hours its come to light that leading scientists in SAGE feel that the UK currently isnt prepared enough to start lifting lockdown restrictions, due to lacking working track and trace and testing not yet being adequate. This is compounded by some county's in england still having a R0 of 1+.

They have advised the government that in their collective opinion it's not yet safe as the appropriate measures which were outlined as requirements for reopening are not yet able to be implemented.

www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/05/29/scientists-say-its-too-early-to-ease-lockdown-amid-fears-over-warm-weekend/

Asked if he agreed it was too soon to ease more of the lockdown, Prof Horby told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Actually, I do.

“You know, we have still got 8,000 cases a day. We have been very successful in bringing it down, decreasing the numbers because of the social distancing.”

But he said it was vital “we don’t lose control again”.

He said one of the important issues is the NHS Test and Trace system which has been rolled out across England with the help of 25,000 contact tracers.

But the programme will not be operational at a local level until the end of next month, while an accompanying app is delayed by several weeks.

Prof Horby added: “Sage has always been very clear that that needs to be in place and fully operational before social distancing can be safely relaxed.

“We are not entirely sure what the effect of relaxing the social measures will be, and so we need to have that safety net of the test, trace and isolate system.

www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23609W

John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a member of Britain's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said the government was taking a risk.

"Track and trace was only launched the day before yesterday, so we can't be sure that that is working effectively yet and yet we're going ahead and making these changes anyway," he told Sky News. "I think that that is rather dangerous."

Edmunds' comments were echoed by two other SAGE members: Peter Horby, also the chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), and Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust.
.........
Government officials have repeatedly said they are following "the science" as they respond to the pandemic, but Edmunds said the decision to ease the lockdown from Monday was political.

"My frustration has been recently at least that they're pretending that they're not making a decision, that in fact it's us who are making the decision, and that's not really the case," he said. "They have to make the decision and clearly they have"

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/top-scientists-urge-uk-stay-22111527

But Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of Britain's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said that "COVID-19 is spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England."

"TTI (test, trace, isolate) has to be in place, fully working, capable dealing any surge immediately, locally responsive, rapid results & infection rates have to be lower. And trusted," he said on Twitter
.....
John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a member of SAGE, said on Friday that "we are taking some risk here" with an "untested" test and trace system describing it as a political decision.

"The government here in Westminster clearly made a decision that this is the sort of level of incidence that they're willing to tolerate, the level of incidence here in the UK is significantly higher than similar countries around Europe," he told the BBC.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser

Government advisers have voiced unease over the decision to lift England’s lockdown while thousands of people a day are still becoming infected with the coronavirus, warning that loosening restrictions could easily lead to a second wave.

“We cannot relax our guard by very much at all,” said John Edmunds, a professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who attends meetings of Sage, the scientific advisory group on emergencies.

There are still 8,000 new infections every day in England without counting those in hospitals and care homes, Edmunds said. “If you look at it internationally, it’s a very high level of incidence.” World Health Organization statistics suggest it is the fifth highest in the world

Edmunds’ call quickly won backing from other scientists with Jeremy Farrar, who also attends Sage and is director of the Wellcome Trust, tweeting: “Covid-19 spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England. Agree with John & clear science advice. TTI [test, trace and isolate] has to be in place, fully working, capable [of dealing with] any surge immediately.” He said results from tests would required quickly and “"infection rates have to be lower”. Farrar pointedly added that the authorities’ capabilities in these areas also had to be “trusted”.

It was for ministers to decide what to do, he said. That impact on health had to be set against the wider impact of the lockdown on society and the economy. “That’s clearly a political decision. It’s not a scientific decision,” he said.

And finally for those who state relaxing lockdown hasn't caused increases of cases elsewhere;

More than 200 schools which had reopened in South Korea on Wednesday were forced to close again today due to a new outbreak of coronavirus. The country reported 79 new cases on Thursday, the highest number in two months.

www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-one-in-seven-people-in-the-uk-have-had-visitors-at-home/#ixzz6Nvcuj4B5

I wont compare against Denmark as their numbers are completely not compatible to the UK in any way shape or form when they started to relax restrictions.

Most countries started easing lockdown at around the 400 new cases per day point. The UK has anywhere between 2000-8000 new cases a day (impossible to say due to testing methods and accessibility of testing). But that's still 4x the amount of cases then other countries who started to very slowly relax lockdown measures. And whom have seen bubbles of infection pop up in since and even their R values jump above 1.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/covid-19-clusters-emerge-as-lockdowns-ease-across-europe

It’s frightening. I have a relative that works in a care home that has completely ignored all
Social distancing. I’m so angry with her

I think they're pathologically fixated on one risk - covid - and seem not to care at all about the hundreds of other risks lockdown is creating.

Covid needs to be managed. But managing it by destroying people's lives makes no sense.

Carbuncle thing is they are not saying lockdown should continue forever. They are saying that TTI needs to be implemented and tested first before we can safely start to ease lockdown, otherwise we may end up having a second peak and potentially another lockdown as it will be impossible to accurately track and trace cases currently. From what I've read theyve suggested more time between lifting measures (rather then doing it all at once) and giving adequate time for TTI to get up and running. I'm pretty sure they haven't even filled the quota of staff needed to run it yet (but I could be wrong as that was the end of last week)

Yes it's too early, infection rates are too high because:

1. We locked down too late allowing the virus to spread unnecessarily
2. The lockdown guidelines were too lax and the government messaging was confused
3. Dominic Cummings

I'm very concerned that the government hasn't told us how many tests it carried out last week. I think they are screwing up the vital test, track and trace program, but are determined to press ahead anyway.

They are 100% correct, obviously. Lockdown restrictions should absolutely not be lifted until Test & Trace is fully up to speed. The Government’s current timescale is being driven by politics, not science.

I think it’s very reckless. The only thing worse than a lockdown is a botched and ineffective lockdown. People keep crying out for the economy to reopen, but they forget that by mid-March large sectors of the economy were shutting down of their own accord anyway. There needs to be consumer confidence for things to reopen properly, And if infection rate start rising again, and there is a loss of trust in the government’s handling of the crisis, people will be more inclined to stay at home.

TTI is a show pony, being used to roll back the scaremongering that has made so many low-risk people terrified to go about their normal lives.If you come in contact with an infect person you have to self isolate but you can't have a test unless you're symptomatic. So you have to stay indoors for 14 days, potentially for nothing. How many people are going to tolerate that happening once, never mind more than once?

Yes, why dont we know about how many were tested. I thought the government had pledged to be more transparent on this. Some hope.

The gov have planned for a second wave during the summer, hence the lifting of some restrictions.
i'm not going anywhere, it's not compulsory.
It's their "aim" according to Boris, right from the start for 66k to die from this, to arrive at herd immunity.
if you don't want to be one of the 66k, stay at home.

I believe them, and if I was them I would also speak out to make it clear that if (God forbid) the worst happens, the Government will be liable. I wish the Government would have a more honest conversation about this and admit their motives. They can't have it both ways and say they are following the science and then ignore the science. They can't set their own preconditions and then ignore those preconditions. I wish they would realise that there are better ways to govern.

Can I just state her for Devlesko that even if you are in the most vulnerable category you still have a high chance of recovering from covid, if you even catch it in the first place? I really and honestly can't believe how fucked up the thinking around this disease has become - people seem to think it means sure death.

If you ask an expert in their chosen field what they would do in a situation, they will likely give you the perfect, best practice answer.

When considering such a complex situation as this, you need multiple experts who will work together to look at the big picture.

An expert in the economy and recessions may have suggested never locking down.

It's about listening to all of the experts in the room and balancing it.

Not taking one expert's opinion out of context to make headlines.

Well SAGE have been sketchy so far but the South Korea news just sums it up to me. It’s like trying to hold a lid down on a bubbling pot.

So, even if pan-global standards matched theirs (which they clearly don’t & wont) there is clearly no eradication. So how long do we curtail international travel etc?

Can’t open & shut & reopen forever - not for a 1% fatality rate surely?

• i'm not going anywhere, it's not compulsory. It's their "aim" according to Boris, right from the start for 66k to die from this, to arrive at herd immunity. if you don't want to be one of the 66k, stay at home.*

Fear mongering bollocks. Stay in your house with your tin foil hat on then.

SAGE's remit is to look at the scientific risk from covid alone. I think most people understand that if we wanted to bring cases under total control we would need to stay locked down. But the government is looking at covid risk alongside many other risk factors - economic, social, educational etc. We (as a society) cannot go on like this. People are losing their jobs, income, and mental health. I myself am at breaking point and do not feel I could stay in lockdown much longer, plus I will lose my job if nurseries don't open soon. Many people (especially young people) are sacrificing a great deal when the risk to them is very low.

So while I understand why SAGE are saying what they are, I don't think it's the only evidence we should be thinking about.

Well said @MummyPop00.

There is a small chance that the virus will fizzle out (which would be amazing). That would mean countries like NZ will emerge as the heroes of the whole story. However, in the much more likely event that the virus doesn't fizzle out, they are potentially going to be in serious trouble, trapped in a situation where the population won't accept even low numbers of infections, unable to re open borders for months and months, no tourism, not incoming trade. It would be devastating for them, far far worse than anything the virus could do.

TheDailyCarbuncle

I do agree with you, it's madness the way some are going on.
I was shielding not out of vulnerability but because I can't do with people, especially during a pandemic
My point was for those that think everything is eased too soon, they don't have to go out.
For me it's using common sense, your own risk assessment, and unfortunately sticking with these bizarre rules.

It would take half a million to gain herd immunity. We are almost at 66k already (approx 60k excess deaths so far).

Ah I see @Devlesko I picked you up wrong.

I agree that if people don't want lockdown to end, they can stay at home. Requiring others to stay at home is beyond controlling. I will go and see my sister if I want to, thanks.

Am I alone in really not understanding how this can be the case:

"There are still 8,000 new infections every day in England without counting those in hospitals and care homes"

If we are locked down, who is this happening to? They've said it's outside hospitals and care homes so that leaves: Delivery drivers, shop assistants, teachers of key worker children, posties, those in food production and other key industries? Then their families? People visiting a supermarket (we've been told 2m etc makes the risk v v low so that can't account for many).

Or is it people not following the rules? They've not said they, in fact the opposite- that compliance has been high throughout all this (well, until Dom).

It's a high DAILY number and I genuinely don't get it ... if lockdown is actually "working"?!

I don't think they have much choice really. Lockdown isn't sustainable for much longer, for a variety of reasons.
It's still being lifted in gradual stages so hopefully there won't be any sudden surges.

Opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one.

I relieved to hear that there a multiplicity of voices in SAGE and think that a good amount of disagreement might mean they are quicker to react if the situation becomes dire again.

But i dont think the leading experts are saying we can't leave lockdown, they are saying we can't open so much so quickly without any form of track and trace available.

dancingshoes The second to last article in the OP included a poll on how many people are following distancing measures. In my own experience I've known too many people who have scoffed and gone "can you say you've really followed distancing guidelines", thus suggesting they probably havent been :(

I think we need to be cautious when considering Covid to not just look at it as those who recover and those who die, and assume those who recover are fine and healthy afterwards. Increasing evidence has shown that many of those who recover are left with long term complications both physically and cognitively. And although younger people are less at risk of death, they dont seem to be less at risk of long term damage and complications. It has actually been likened to Polio in its long term affects post infection.

www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/coronavirus-long-term-effects-symptoms

www.topdoctors.co.uk/medical-articles/post-covid-19-physical-mental-complications-during-recovery

www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200513/complications-on-the-road-to-recovery-after-covid

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/covid-19-s-health-effects-can-last-long-after-virus-is-gone

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/survivors-severe-covid-19-beating-virus-just-beginning

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/lingering-and-painful-long-and-unclear-road-to-coronavirus-recovery-long-lasting-symptoms