How do you feel about SAGE advisers saying it's too early to ease lockdown restrictions?

[LittleFoxKit]

Just that really. In the past 24 hours its come to light that leading scientists in SAGE feel that the UK currently isnt prepared enough to start lifting lockdown restrictions, due to lacking working track and trace and testing not yet being adequate. This is compounded by some county's in england still having a R0 of 1+.

They have advised the government that in their collective opinion it's not yet safe as the appropriate measures which were outlined as requirements for reopening are not yet able to be implemented.

www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/05/29/scientists-say-its-too-early-to-ease-lockdown-amid-fears-over-warm-weekend/

Asked if he agreed it was too soon to ease more of the lockdown, Prof Horby told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Actually, I do.

“You know, we have still got 8,000 cases a day. We have been very successful in bringing it down, decreasing the numbers because of the social distancing.”

But he said it was vital “we don’t lose control again”.

He said one of the important issues is the NHS Test and Trace system which has been rolled out across England with the help of 25,000 contact tracers.

But the programme will not be operational at a local level until the end of next month, while an accompanying app is delayed by several weeks.

Prof Horby added: “Sage has always been very clear that that needs to be in place and fully operational before social distancing can be safely relaxed.

“We are not entirely sure what the effect of relaxing the social measures will be, and so we need to have that safety net of the test, trace and isolate system.

www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23609W

John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a member of Britain's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said the government was taking a risk.

"Track and trace was only launched the day before yesterday, so we can't be sure that that is working effectively yet and yet we're going ahead and making these changes anyway," he told Sky News. "I think that that is rather dangerous."

Edmunds' comments were echoed by two other SAGE members: Peter Horby, also the chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), and Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust.
.........
Government officials have repeatedly said they are following "the science" as they respond to the pandemic, but Edmunds said the decision to ease the lockdown from Monday was political.

"My frustration has been recently at least that they're pretending that they're not making a decision, that in fact it's us who are making the decision, and that's not really the case," he said. "They have to make the decision and clearly they have"

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/top-scientists-urge-uk-stay-22111527

But Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of Britain's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said that "COVID-19 is spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England."

"TTI (test, trace, isolate) has to be in place, fully working, capable dealing any surge immediately, locally responsive, rapid results & infection rates have to be lower. And trusted," he said on Twitter
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John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a member of SAGE, said on Friday that "we are taking some risk here" with an "untested" test and trace system describing it as a political decision.

"The government here in Westminster clearly made a decision that this is the sort of level of incidence that they're willing to tolerate, the level of incidence here in the UK is significantly higher than similar countries around Europe," he told the BBC.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser

Government advisers have voiced unease over the decision to lift England’s lockdown while thousands of people a day are still becoming infected with the coronavirus, warning that loosening restrictions could easily lead to a second wave.

“We cannot relax our guard by very much at all,” said John Edmunds, a professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who attends meetings of Sage, the scientific advisory group on emergencies.

There are still 8,000 new infections every day in England without counting those in hospitals and care homes, Edmunds said. “If you look at it internationally, it’s a very high level of incidence.” World Health Organization statistics suggest it is the fifth highest in the world

Edmunds’ call quickly won backing from other scientists with Jeremy Farrar, who also attends Sage and is director of the Wellcome Trust, tweeting: “Covid-19 spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England. Agree with John & clear science advice. TTI [test, trace and isolate] has to be in place, fully working, capable [of dealing with] any surge immediately.” He said results from tests would required quickly and “"infection rates have to be lower”. Farrar pointedly added that the authorities’ capabilities in these areas also had to be “trusted”.

It was for ministers to decide what to do, he said. That impact on health had to be set against the wider impact of the lockdown on society and the economy. “That’s clearly a political decision. It’s not a scientific decision,” he said.

And finally for those who state relaxing lockdown hasn't caused increases of cases elsewhere;

More than 200 schools which had reopened in South Korea on Wednesday were forced to close again today due to a new outbreak of coronavirus. The country reported 79 new cases on Thursday, the highest number in two months.

www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-one-in-seven-people-in-the-uk-have-had-visitors-at-home/#ixzz6Nvcuj4B5

I wont compare against Denmark as their numbers are completely not compatible to the UK in any way shape or form when they started to relax restrictions.

Most countries started easing lockdown at around the 400 new cases per day point. The UK has anywhere between 2000-8000 new cases a day (impossible to say due to testing methods and accessibility of testing). But that's still 4x the amount of cases then other countries who started to very slowly relax lockdown measures. And whom have seen bubbles of infection pop up in since and even their R values jump above 1.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/covid-19-clusters-emerge-as-lockdowns-ease-across-europe

Why do we need s second wave?
I can see why we don't need a second wave
The second wave even if it's twice a big as this one won't get you anywhere close to herd immunity
It will kill people and damage the economy through additional restrictions and fear though

We don't need a second wave, but I think the government are willing to accept a level of transmission above what will make it fizzle out (under 1) in order for us to go about our lives in some sort of normality.

Right now I think they are trying to get everything to work at the same time, which is tricky. We will see bumps and waves from now until we are at a level that no more restrictions will be lifted. We might see something closing / being stopped again, but I think they hope the massive testing capacity above what we had pre-lockdown and hospital capacity will mean that is ok.

To the vast majority of people covid is not a deadly disease.

@HesterShaw1

TTI is a show pony, being used to roll back the scaremongering that has made so many low-risk people terrified to go about their normal lives.If you come in contact with an infect person you have to self isolate but you can't have a test unless you're symptomatic. So you have to stay indoors for 14 days, potentially for nothing. How many people are going to tolerate that happening once, never mind more than once?

I'm afraid I agree with this. The idea of people being told they have to isolate for 14 days without knowing if they actually need to or not is completely ludicrous. If people have come into contact with a person who has tested positive, they should be tested also.

Can you imaging someone coming back to work for a fortnight, going off for another fortnight, coming back, having to isolate for 14 more days after a week back at work....all without knowing whether or not it is even necessary?

Or have I misunderstood the plan completely?

No you haven't misunderstood. The TTI setup is a total farce but something has to be done to convince the doom mongers that they're 'being protected.'

A real track and trace system needs
A very very low number of infections, within a relatively small area
A very quick testing system that catches new infections before a lot of contact occurs
A top notch tracing system that locates all contacts quickly, informs them and tests them

A system with tracers who have minimal training, who will tell people days or weeks after contact, during which they may have already spread the illness extensively, which then refuses to test anyone until they're symptomatic (remember that many people who have covid have no symptoms or symptoms so mild they don't notice them) and expects people to stay at home, on no pay or pathetically low sick pay, for two weeks every time there's a contact is so utterly pointless I can't believe anyone actually thinks it'll work. It is a nonsense.

Any test and trace policy that works on the assumption that contacts can immediately be tested and let back out if the test is negative is useless. The virus simply doesn't show up on tests until after the incubation period so getting a negative test shortly after contact proves nothing.

However lots on MN believe economy trumps humans

@Chloemol the economy IS humans

Parents earning money
Food on tables
Taxes pay for NHS
Jobs for young people
People and companies supporting charities

The whole of SAGE hasn't walked out... have they?
I had impression that when the 16 scientists at any specific SAGE meeting there will be at least 16 opinions in the room. Some will be scared, others willing to see how it goes. Apparently some of the politicians were surprised to find 16 opinions in the room, and so are MNers.

Heck if you put 16 MNers in the room you'd find at least 32 opinions quite possibly.

@StatisticalSense

Any test and trace policy that works on the assumption that contacts can immediately be tested and let back out if the test is negative is useless. The virus simply doesn't show up on tests until after the incubation period so getting a negative test shortly after contact proves nothing.

I agree. But a system that expects a person with no symptoms to sit at home for two weeks every time they come in contact with an infected person (which for some professions will be a lot) is bonkers.

I agree with them.
I'm keeping my head down for some time yet.

Clearly they'll have to be exceptions for some professions to the 14 days self isolation in certain contexts, but the vast majority of such professions aren't yet back at work and therefore these don't need to be in place at the current time for the system to work. If any adult manages to be contacted twice while the current restrictions remain in place without breaking them they'd have to be very unlucky, as the only people you should be within 2 meters of for more than a few seconds is your household (which would have already required isolation), medical professionals and if absolutely necessary (such as for heavy lifting) one colleague. The chances will be slightly higher for children back at school and childcare professionals but even within the same 15 contacts they'd have to be extremely unlucky to come into contact with 2 separate cases.

They are rolling out a bedside test that will get immediate results, that will help once it is more widely available. Certainly for people presenting to hospital.

That will help in identifying whose contacts to trace but it will do nothing to reduce the need for those contacts to isolate. Unfortunately it isn't going to be possible to develop a test that can determine whether someone is infected in the early stages of the virus.

The government take a consensus of scientific evidence and opinion. Not everyone will agree, but the majority seem ok with reduction of lockdown.

However lots on MN believe economy trumps humans.

No I just don't think covid-19 trumps everything else. There are lots of situations that are resulting in a risk of harm, we can't just stop all the wheels for the sake of CV. That thinking is dangerous and far too black and white.

I don't know what I think to it all, but judging by what I've seen going on outside. A hell of a lot of people have taken themselves out of lockdown.

People I know who were extremely careful at the start are now getting extremely restless.

I've taken the view that it's a marathon not a sprint, I'll make my own mind up what I will and won't do.

Just because the government is opening up doesn't mean we HAVE to do any of those things.

If we are locked down, who is this happening to?

A good proportion of the population aren't locked down and aren't supposed to be. And yes. some people will catch it in shops, childcare and petrol forecourts etc etc. And then their families may catch it too. So it can still spread around, just a lot more slowly

We can't just listen to epidemiologists who are solely interested in the number of deaths from the virus. We also need to listen to experts in other fields such as mental health and suicide prevention, economists, cancer specialists, behavioural scientists, and the business community

The countries that have handled this the best, have followed epidemiologists only.
If we have been listening to other experts, then all that has happened is we have prolonged our agony.

Looking at current numbers, I feel the same as these SAGE scientists. The decrease in cases and deaths has been subtly slowing down over the last few weeks (almost plateauing, even). And it seems a significant amount of people have decided lockdown was over. I expect a rebound within, say, about 1 month? (due to the lag between infection, first symptoms, then hospital admission and death)

I'm not planning on doing anything differently , in the face of this potential relaxation. However, I appreciate that it's easy for me, since I have been working full time from home, with very little adaptation require, cost and time saving for no commuting and no caring responsibilities.

If I had no income, if I had children to look after while working, if I didn't have a garden and lovely walks, things would seem very very different.

Until we can get serious track and trace in place, though, we are all just working in the dark so the safest thing is to stay at home. If that is a luxury you cannot afford, then you are being subtly encouraged to get on with it.

The joker in the pack are people who don't show any symptoms but are marry spreading the virus. That's why we all had to lock down in the first place. Where are the tests?

Can the government really just be so incompetent ? I'd honestly rather believe they have some nefarious master plan than that they just can't get a grip.

Psychiatric inpatients have been among the worst affected by covid19 in South Korea.

Lockdown triggered a lot of MH issues in NZ, too.
i guess it depends what currency you prioritise. Deaths now vs. morbidity now and later plus other premature deaths?