Has the virus become less infectious over time?

[reeceormeese]

We never did get the VE Day spike. And lots of countries that were really badly hit loosened restrictions weeks ago and apart from slight increases, it hasn’t started growing again exponentially and even after these slight increases the cases then went down again.

Has the virus possibly mutated and become less virulent?

I am not convinced it has but would it not be great if it had

Could be the warmer weather has helped it die down temporarily?

VE day wasn’t that long ago. It takes a while to become infected (up to seven days at least) before then needing to be admitted to hospital (usually from day 10 onwards) and die (can be several weeks later). In total, you are looking five to six weeks ahead for this, possibly longer with the reporting lags.

Maybe.

Although it’s far more likely it’s down to the 2 month+ heavy restrictions on movement and gatherings.

I think (and indeed have seen credible articles that support this) that the virus spreads much more easily in offices, workplaces, family homes and pubs etc. Outdoors is far less of an ideal environment for it to spread. VE day was dreadful to witness in some areas but I still think that the risk of it spreading was minuscule compared to enclosed spaces.

Maybe ... the only person I know who’s had it , had it a couple of weeks ago , tested positive (nhs) , husband tested negative (also nhs) . No one else got ill in the household.

Looks like the infection rate is going up to me

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

I agree it's plausible but who knows🤷‍♀️

Looks like the infection rate is going up to me

Is that not because we are testing more

How many did actually break the rules on VE day though?

No. I'm no scientist but it's only been around a very short time in the scheme of things and that couldn't happen.

[quote BagpussAteMyHomework]Looks like the infection rate is going up to me

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/quote]
Does it? None of those graphs seem to indicate that.

I've just been looking at the graph for hospital admissions for 20-27 May.

Admissions are coming down between 20-23 May, 24-26 May is a plateau, and then it rises on the 27 May.
20 May - 713 People in hospital with Covid
21 May - 675
22 May - 685
23 May - 595
24 May - 471
25 May - 472
26 May - 475
27 May - 552

I can't work out if the plateau is because of the way data was collected over the Spring Bank Holiday weekend and rise was making up for that OR we are witnessing a spike as the 27 May is just over two and a half weeks on from V.E. Day, which would fit in with what SunbathingDragon says.

Hospital admissions for the 28 May should be in today's briefing. Will be interesting to see how they look.

Link to the graphs

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

Deaths seem to have been climbing (very slightly) for the past week, according to the NHS data.

The thing with the VE Day is people had at the time been mostly observing lockdown for weeks so transmission was fairly low. It's more after weeks and weeks of people socialising and partying where a spike is more likely, rather than from that one day.

As people have said, outdoor socialising is not a huge issue. It will be the return to work places and school environments that will make the difference. Coupled of course with family seeing each other, nipping to the loo, getting drinks out and slowly eroding the 2m distance...

There is otoh positive evidence that the virus is weakened in direct sunlight....

Deelish - is that total number of people in hospital with covid? That looks really low compared to the deaths. I guess most deaths are now in care homes, which have a totally different situation.

There is otoh positive evidence that the virus is weakened in direct sunlight....

Does that evidence include data from Mediterranean countries (Eg Italy and Spain) that enjoy hours of unbroken sunshine through the year?

Eyewhisker

It's the "estimated new daily admissions with Covid - 19"

Warm weather has nothing to do with it. Its 44c where I live and coronavirus is still here and spreading. Just to get this misconception out of the way.

I doubt it’s mutated but even a 20% antibody / immunity rate would slow it down. Plus lockdown measures.

Wasn't the weather correlation more to do with humidity than temperature?

As more people get it the transmission will naturally slow down because immune people will not pass it on as easily.

To be honest, I think a second spike, if it is inevitable, is best to happen whilst we are in the summer months and the NHS is not already under pressure from other winter illnesses etc.

@Curious200

Warm weather has nothing to do with it. Its 44c where I live and coronavirus is still here and spreading. Just to get this misconception out of the way.

Not my words, but that of a Sage advisor, Professor Alan Penn;

“The science suggests that being outside in sunlight, with good ventilation, are both highly protective against transmission of the virus,” he told MPs.

It’s entirely possible that heat and humidity can lower the effective transmission rate without lowering it so much that it drops below 1. It might be spreading even more were it not for your conditions, who lnowd.