Has the virus become less infectious over time?

[reeceormeese]

We never did get the VE Day spike. And lots of countries that were really badly hit loosened restrictions weeks ago and apart from slight increases, it hasn’t started growing again exponentially and even after these slight increases the cases then went down again.

Has the virus possibly mutated and become less virulent?

@KittenVsBox that's right, you can only get a test if symptomatic.
It's a crude graph so it wont be spot on but it can be an indication. It's basically the positive tests in relation to the tests carried out.
Like I said, not perfect but indicative.

[quote LivinLaVidaLoki]@KittenVsBox that's right, you can only get a test if symptomatic.
It's a crude graph so it wont be spot on but it can be an indication. It's basically the positive tests in relation to the tests carried out.
Like I said, not perfect but indicative.[/quote]
Anecdotally you can get one by reporting any kind of change on the Zoe app - a headache or sore throat- too

When this started non of us were social distancing, why would a small number of covidiots ignoring the rules put us in a worse situation

Quite. I went to a wedding as late as 15th March and didn't (to my knowledge) catch it - at the beginning everyone was banging elbows and keeping some distance apart - by the time we left when everyone had been drinking they were hugging and kissing each other! So I doubt I will catch it from eg going for a run outside with up to 5 friends after 1 June or from going to the supermarket with a face covering on when it's quiet.

No. Take a look at Brazil. Lots of lovely weather. Virus is spreading exponentially.

I’m in the North West and anecdotally it’s in the up a lot. I know of 4 people who have tested positive ( from different spheres of my life) this week, when I hadn’t heard anything for several weeks. Data is very behind as it takes weeks to be
hospitalised etc. Driving through my town today, it was busier than a normal eeekend in the park. Very worrying.

Everyone is saying that VE Day gatherings and general loosening of lockdown hasn’t had an effect but the number of deaths have not slowed much so may have been lower if we had stayed in strict lockdown.

I’m not sure it’s become less virulent but that does happen to many viruses apparently. Heat may also have something to do with it dying out, Africa was predicted to be disastrous and it’s not been.

I think it was simply never as virulent as it was first thought. Let’s face it, common logic tells us we aren’t catching it in the supermarket or from our shopping. If we were it would have ripped though our population. It hasn’t.

Many countries Have loosened lock down and no one has yet seen a second peak. Long may that last.

We don’t want it to Hit at the same time as flu season, so everyone getting out and about now will help us all in the long run. If there is going to be a second peak you need it to be now when we have the capacity to deal with it.

But it seems to be not happening. Potentially because those who are shielded or vulnerable now know the risks, so they are self protecting, meaning for nearly everyone else, It will be very mild to no symptoms if they get it.

The shielded and vulnerable self protecting means their lives will be saved and the death toll and hospital admissions will continue to drop. Because predominantly those are the people who require hospitalisation, I think approx 90 percent of those who need hospitalisation are in those groups and those people know they are.

had an effect but the number of deaths have not slowed much

They have, you need to look at actual deaths not the reported, because it can take about a month for the deaths to appear in the daily numbers.

The stats are published on actual deaths and for England hospitals it’s now down to approx twenty people a day.

Africa was predicted to be disastrous and it's not been

Long may it stay that way. Its pretty disastrous in
Central and South America though, and there are plenty of hot countries there.

I’m in the North West and anecdotally it’s in the up a lot
Anecdotal evidence is not evidence.

Those 4 people you know could be the only people in the north west to test positive, for all you know.

I'm not sure about it becoming less infectious, but it would seem that innate immunity/T cell production is more effective as a defence than was thought initially, certainly for younger people.
It does help to explain why infection rates slow down noticeably once 15-20% of the population have antibodies. It might be possible for the virus to burn out in highly populated areas that had high peaks.

Under the bus- really? I had no idea about the meaning of anecdotal . I’ll make sure I only refer to gold standard RCT’s in the future.