Why do some of you believe this will be over sooner than we think?

[Frume]

I keep seeing posters saying that they believe that this will be over sooner than we think and we will get back to normal quicker than we're expecting.

To those who think this, why do you believe this?

Genuine question as obviously that would be great!

Because on this site they are all armchair experts, who know so much more than anyone else. And whoa if anybody dares to challenge them...

I'm so shocked that with the MN knowledge of Covid , that most aren't on the podium at the 5pm daily updates.....😂

It does seem that a lot of people know a 'top doctor' somewhere...

I've said this. Just a gut feeling, absolutely no valid reason why. Just a combination of wistful thinking and natural optimism. I've never claimed to be an expert. I'm just a Karol Sikora type

The truth is, none of us really know what is going to happen. Even experts don't.

I agree with Waxon. Nobody really knows, so those of us who are natural optimists incline towards the positive.

Also, things like the pattern of reducing deaths in the UK, and the lack of a second wave in China since easing the lockdown there are quite encouraging.

It's quite possible that the virus will mutate to a milder version and will become just one of several respiratory illnesses we coexist with. Countries that have released lockdown haven't - yet - seen any great rise in cases. The pandemic could burn itself out.

Or not. We could be in lockdown again next winter. Nobody knows, incl the experts. But doom and gloom scenarios aren't neccessarily more 'realistic' than cautiously optimistic ones.

Well at 17% it could be over quite soon in london. In that there could easily be another wave triggered by schools going back geting 5-10% more people.

But if the rest of the uk is only 5% that is a long way to go for everyone else.

Who is “we”?

That's a totally unanswerable question, there's no one right way of thinking. Why do you think it will last longer than someone else does?

No one one knows, no one's guess is inherently any righter then anyone else's, that's the nature of guessing or wondering or hoping etc.

I like this way of thinking. I am cautious though, well aware that Whitty said this is the long haul and we’ve still got a way to go.

We'll be happy if furlough continues until at least Christmas. Summer is approaching and there will bars and pubs to visit.

We'll be happy if furlough continues until at least Christmas. Summer is approaching and there will bars and pubs to visit.

No chance of furlough continuing until Christmas. The country would be broke. I'm not sure where people think the money is coming from.

Besides, bars and pubs would be among the last to open so if you can visit them you can very likely go back to work too.

Replying to:
"HelenaPeach Sat 23-May-20 09:50:53
We'll be happy if furlough continues until at least Christmas. Summer is approaching and there will bars and pubs to visit."

You might be happy if furlough continues until Christmas but will the economy cope?

Why would you be happy for furlough to continue until Christmas unless you are in a job that will be unlikely to return until Christmas - why is Christmas magical for furlough ended? Or you are worried for your job and at least furlough means you are getting paid? I imagine when fulough ends there will be a laying off of a number of people since once the taxpayer no longer pays salaries some companies will not be able to continue...

We'll be happy if furlough continues until at least Christmas. Summer is approaching and there will bars and pubs to visit

That's exactly the selfish misinformed attitude that will ruin the world's economy but as long as I'm alright helena can enjoy a summer break on the taxpayers dime all's fine

Or have I fallen for a joke post, hard to credit that anyone would be so crass.

I'm quite the opposite. At least on the surface.

Early on I felt "this doesn't bode well" when seeing how China was building extra hospitals and starting to lock down (didn't add up with claims at the time that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission, or that the illness was generally mild: you don't shut down an entire country for "just the flu")

And I had a "oh fuck, game over D:" moment when I first heard asymptomatic contagion was very much possible (as in "how can you avoid THAT turning into a pandemic?")

Lockdown still came as a shock, but also a relief (since the whole herd immunity approach seemed bonkers, as soon as you did the maths on projected numbers of deaths, but also, more crucially, projected numbers of healthy productive adults suddenly bed-bound for weeks all at the same time)

Now, for the future... I'm not sure. Earlier models suggest we will have on/off lockdowns for a year or two. I think that's a real possibility, and the worst case scenario I'm preparing for.
But knowledge on the disease is constantly involving, so I try to keep an open mind (maybe it will just vanish, become milder, maybe we've actually already all had it, etc.). Also we might find effective treatments much earlier than thought, and maybe a vaccine is really just around the corner...

So even though my risk-adverse, rational mind tells me "look at the data, and prepare for the absolute worst: we're in this for the long haul, and should act accordingly" (I'm an engineer who designs safety equipment, so it's literally my job to look at things that way)
... I guess the emotional part is actually quite optimistic still. I do wish my fears were proven completely wrong (so far, they haven't. And I've got a pretty damn good track record at making accurate "doom and gloom" predictions).
But above all, my optimism tells me: even in that worst case scenario, it will (undoubtedly) be shit, for quite a while, and people will (sadly) suffer, but people will also (for the most part) manage, because we're (generally) a lot more resilient than we realise
(... then I think about the significant minority of people who will NOT manage, and I cry, because there really is no perfect solution to the crisis we are all facing, but not facing with the same resources)

In a situation where nobody knows how long it's going to last, it's pretty obvious that the naturally optimistic will think shorter and the pessimistic will think longer. And both will cite whichever studies or articles that confirm their pov. That's just human nature.

Because nobody knows how it'll pan out. The 'it'll burn itself out' brigade are just as valid as the 'lockdown4ever/life will never be the same again/I'm staying locked up till 2077' brigade.

Whatever happens tomorrow who knows?

However, furlough cannot remain indefinitely. Those that have managed to hold onto a job will quit. And then what?

As others said, eventually it will be another seasonal thing hopefully just like previous viruses this is linked to.

Current coronaviruses immunity only lasts 6-12 months.

This doesn't mean C19 will be the same but it's probably a good indication.

Because the government is full of untrustworthy liars and so people fall back on 'common sense'.

Is there any proof that this is seasonal, if that’s the case why have most countries have been infected including New Zealand, who have opposite seasons?

Or it becomes like the Influenza virus and its yearly.
At this stage, it cannot be proved either way.

All anyone can do is listen to qualified and experienced scientists. They've been providing and sharing lots of valuable information from January as they continue to research.

Is there any proof that this is seasonal, if that’s the case why have most countries have been infected including New Zealand, who have opposite seasons?

New Zealand and Australia have very low infection rates. Brazil is a better example. 347k cases and 22k deaths. Not entirely seasonal I would say.

It's probably seasonal in the respect that people are better able to protect themselves in the summer, by increasing their vitamin D levels in sunlight, and by spending more time outdoors, where transmission is lower. In any case, it's not just temperature that's relevant, it's also the degree of humidity, so hot humid weather is what the virus doesn't 'like'.
Personally, I find it quite encouraging that infection rates seem to drop off quite dramatically once 15-20% of the population carries antibodies (New York and London).
There's also some indications that innate immunity has quite an important part to play in fighting off this virus. Most of us can take steps to maintain or improve our immune systems.

All the people who said we'd have a spike in deaths and positive cases after VE Day.

Where is that spike?

No one knows, so it’s just another theory at the moment because this virus is new. Sorry for the mail link but some modelling is also suggesting it, I really hope it happens like this.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8351237/Coronavirus-completely-wiped-Britain-September-30.html

All the people who said we'd have a spike in deaths and positive cases after VE Day.

All them people will be still hoping for a spike. In fact I bet they feel disappointed that there wasn't one. They are doom gloom.