Do you think we’ll see an upswing in cases/deaths this weekend?

[ImInAStateOfMind]

This weekend marks two weeks after VE Day. I was delighted to see the death numbers fall yesterday but I’m wondering if we will see an increase due to all the VE Day festivities.

If so, I’m also wondering if this would then affect the proposed opening of schools on June 1st?

No. Highly unlikely.

No - the vast majority of cases now are from transmission in care homes/hospitals. I wish people would stop rubbing their hands with glee when contemplating further restrictions/death and suffering

I don’t think so because the rise of the cases didn’t happened, thankfully, at least in my area

No

No i think if there is an uplift again it will be in 3-4 weeks.

Who is rubbing their hands with glee @Pleasedontdothat? I think maybe you meant to post that on another thread?

No, I don't think there will be any kind of uplift.

It usually takes about 13 weeks from infection to death so it wouldn't be this weekend...although we would see an increase in admissions.

I certainly hope not.

No

If there is a rise in deaths it will be in another 2-3 weeks from the weekend

No, I don't. I think new infections would have already started showing up by now with the increase in testing. It's been 10 days already.
Thers's no real reason why it would, if people stayed outdoors and maintained social distancing, which it seems people did for the most part.

3 weeks not 13 days sorry

13 weeks @Friendsofmine? Blimey. I didn’t know that.

No of course not.

Oh! Three weeks sounds more likely.

No. The rise in new cases is decreasing. There is very little community transmission, the virus is spreading in hotspots like hospitals and care homes.

No

As incubation period is up to 14 days it’s still quite possible there’ll be an upswing in cases over the next week or so. Having said that I think it’s generally accepted that community transmission is pretty low - hopefully VE Day will prove it. Also I can only speak for my own experience but our VE Day celebrations were fun but socially distanced, the only exception being one friend having a bad time who I hugged but as we work together anyway I am not going to feel too bad about that!

That’s interesting @feelingverylazytoday. Certainly from what I was seeing in the media, on here, and reports from friends/family across the country, parties and gatherings started out with the best intentions for social distancing but then all that was forgotten about as the evening went on and more alcohol was drunk.

There’s a snippet in the bbc’s Morning update that suggests one doctor noted an increase which he puts down to VE day meets: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52714814. Scroll down to section 4, and then there’s a link to a more in-depth article. Just one report though - you can’t conclude much from that I suppose!

If we have another spike it won't be from VE Day

It will be in late summer/autumn as the use of public transport increases and workplaces forced to reopen without adequate provision in place

As above it's normally 3 weeks from infection that you may be starting to see a hospital admission. Even then for some it is normally 10 days from when you started with symptoms. So you may see a increases of cases but not hospital admissions or deaths yet.

However every weekend and Monday the deaths are very low come midweek we are on 600 again

Certainly from what I was seeing in the media, on here, and reports from friends/family acrosdps the country
Well I can't speak for your friends and family but I certainly wouldn't rely on the media or mumsnet for a reliable version of events.

Good point about the differences in the rate of community/ care home/ hospital transmissions.

I'm not sure putting bunting up in your front garden means you'll be dead with in a fortnight.

So, no.

People were more lax about social distancing but it mostly happened outside so it will be interesting to see what effect it has.