Do you think we’ll see an upswing in cases/deaths this weekend?

[ImInAStateOfMind]

This weekend marks two weeks after VE Day. I was delighted to see the death numbers fall yesterday but I’m wondering if we will see an increase due to all the VE Day festivities.

If so, I’m also wondering if this would then affect the proposed opening of schools on June 1st?

No. Numbers will continue to decline.

No. For all the bleating about VE Day I didn't see any breaches of the lockdown.

Be interesting to see where we are 3-4 weeks from now though. It's purely anecdata, but over the last week DH and I have noticed a significant increase in traffic when he's bringing me to and from work.

There ought to be some increase in cases from the weekend onwards, not just because of VE Day but because people were encouraged to go back to work from the Sunday.

The tubes were crowded and construction reopened (if it wasn't already).

The release in lockdown hasn't been started because it is "safe" and the virus has gone away - but because the NHS can cope with an increase of cases.

If you are healthy and under 60 then you are unlikely to get severely sick.

So the healthy begin getting back to normal, while the sick and elderly continue to shield.

Social distancing as much as possibly will keep transmission rates low, so less people get sick in one go and overwhelm the NHS.

If we don't see an increase in cases as the lockdown lifts, then it casts doubt on the validity of the lockdown, as clearly it wasn't necessary to reduce spread.

It would be a small increase, if even that.

I think we will see clusters/peaks of infection in the community, I cannot see how it would have completely disappeared, when people have always been going out, going to work, going shopping etc during the lockdown. How well those are managed, to prevent further spread and larger outbreaks, remains to be seen.

I’ve been wondering that too. Very sad if there is.

Someone quoted a rudyard Kipling poem on MN before about loved ones meeting and cuddling etc and a disease carrier not knowing that they had it were inadvertently smitting the ones they lived with death in every embrace. Can’t remember the name of it. Anyone?

In reality a very small percentage of the population got together for a very small amount of time (mainly outdoors) on one day. So, no I’m not expecting an increase in covid numbers this weekend

No I think it's fizzling out now and won't return to previous levels of new cases and subsequent deaths. Well I hope so anyway.

I’m not sure VE Day will cause a spike.
People getting back to normal and using public transport probably will though.

30% of those in intensive care are men under 60. It doesn’t just affect the elderly.

No, if a few idiots getting drunk can cause a noticeable spike in cases we're pretty screwed. Most of the people who flouted social distancing on that day probably had been throughout?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52715571

Interesting report.

Most of the people who flouted social distancing on that day probably had been throughout?

Hmm yes that's a very good point. Only four in five adults are following the guidelines.

maybe a few people will get it from VE day. Whether or not it will be statistically significant enough to prove... And those whe are daft enough to get together, were probably doing so already.

Also there is the return to work, which is much more likely to cause an increase if there is one. separating the two in the stats would be too difficult, unless they traced everyone. Would be interesting if someone could do a study, and maybe help with research into transmimssion, but there is not enough staff to do so.

Numbers tend to be higher on Tuesdays due to reporting lags over the weekend, I have noticed.

Found this OP, which does seem to indicate a cluster www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52715571
It does seem very quick for admission to hospital (unless that hospital is admitting very early), but I'm not going to disagree with a doctor on the frontline.

I think there will be in certain areas.

I know lots of 'pro lockdown' people who didn't social distance that day. Nit helped by councils sharing the 'VE day itinerary', leading some people to think it was an offcially mandated event and then had to much to drink.

On exh Street, police attended 3 times.

I dont think the Sunday Boris announcement actually made that much difference.

Most people heading back to work that Monday, had already planned to. Very few companies called their employees sunday night and made them come back Monday morning.

But with even more going out, I would suspect in the next 2-4 weeks there will be a slight rise.