Will we have to socially distance until there’s a vaccination?

[sunshineanddaffodils]

This horrible thought suddenly occurred to me last night. What do you think?

Probably

I would think so. Quite a number of people are getting the virus yet not producing antibodies ( me) so that would indicate we do.

Yes. Many world leaders have said this is the plan.

Yes, I think so, maybe a mixture of social distancing and lock downs if numbers go up. Unless they find an effective treatment.

Casino - I'm curious - did you have a "sick" test and an antibody test?

Deaths are 95% those with underlying health conditions. In all the deaths in New York 0.7% of deaths were those without an underlying health condition. In a sane world the healthy would return to normal life and the vulnerable would be shielded pending a vaccine.

Sorry, first figure was meant to say 99% not 95%

Even with effective treatment we would have to keep the R

Would this mean social distancing from family too?

Yes, why wouldn’t it??

Except the US States which went back to normal three weeks ago and are yet to show an increase in R rate. It will be interesting to see what happens in Italy and Spain as they open up further. I am always surprised that people assert they know what will happen (“the R rate will rise” or “the risks are massive exaggerated”). We really don’t know. It’s sensible to be cautious as we find out more but it’s silly to talk in certainties.

Not if track and trace works effectively. We may still ban large gatherings, but if the rate is low, and outbreaks are contained it may be possible to get back to near normal.

In fairness, ireland had 4 deaths yesterday. 4! Grant it, they didnt go much above 45 daily, but they implemented a huge amount of test, track, and trace. It seems to have worked wonders. I can see them eradicating the virus before a vaccine comes out but of course when air travel starts getting going again that may change. It is possible for a country to bring the death rate down to very very small levels that would mean social distancing isnt needed, but with such international movement thats probable not sustainable long term.

@user1471447924 sorry, I just can’t get my head around the fact we may not be able to see family properly until a vaccine

I think they will have to allow contact between 2 nominated households or people will just disregard it wholesale.

I'm quite happy to social distance from friends and I don't have any family beyond the childen I live with but inwould like to be 'allowed' to see my boyfriend.

People who are sensible will apply their own risk assessments and follow that. People who aren't, well they wont have been social distancing anyway.

I think nominating another household - be it family member or partner would be fine.

@Thewheelsonthebus23 I imagine they will say we can see immediate family, maybe a household or two, but not many people outside of that. I feel your pain. Mg family live abroad. I am 16 weeks pregnant. I told them all over skype and they will probably not see me for the duration of this pregnancy. My extended family (outside parents and my one sibling) wont see me til next year at the earliest. Its rough.

@PicnicHamper I agree. Can’t understand why vulnerable/shielded people stay safe and isolate whilst the rest of us get back to normal.

What if there is never a vaccine though, do we just live like this forever?

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/superspreader-events-may-responsible-80-percent-coronavirus/

This was interesting, so maybe we can have a degree of normality if we can identify the most dangerous areas and ensure in the front line ones vaccines are priority and put in strict controls or lockdown the others.

I’m hoping that they can get the testing down to within half an hour and we get to the point where if you need a test you can go to a mobile testing tent outside Tesco so we can really control the isolation.

If you look at how far we’ve come since February when no one had even really heard of it, in the space of 4 months we’ve got reliable tests, human trials on a vaccine, they think half the population could have the vaccine available in 6 months from now. There is hope, curing the fear will take a while too but for now the fear is necessary.

@sunshineanddaffodils I felt we should have done this from the start (to mitigate the economic consequences which will also cause deaths and suffering). Problem is, it's quite a lot of people, especially if you include (by necessity) all those they live with.

Have they even found out yet if there's more than one strain of it?

Nope, the world is not set up for social distancing. People will start to just take their chances with the virus in exchange for a life, as opposed to an existence.

@YappityYapYap I think DH read the other day there are 12 strains including at least one that has only been found in the uk 😥

Yes, certainly for vulnerable categories.

People will start to just take their chances with the virus in exchange for a life, as opposed to an existence.

Completely agree.