Will we have to socially distance until there’s a vaccination?

[sunshineanddaffodils]

This horrible thought suddenly occurred to me last night. What do you think?

And why do you think that is happening spill?

There are to my knowledge no other vaccines for the old corona viruses that we have around.

I see this being said a lot and I think it betrays a fundamental lack of knowledge about vaccines, medical history and basic virology.

As someone has pointed out, there are coronaviruses already - for some of the coronaviruses that affect animals. Vaccines for SARS and MERS were being developed but research stalled when the epidemics from those viruses died down. Vaccines are very expensive to develop and there’s no point spending a lot of money working on one that’s not needed any more. As for the coronaviruses that cause the common cold - well, there’s just of them, among over a hundred other viruses that cause colds. What’s the post of spending a lot of research money on developing a vaccine to one or two viruses out of over a hundred that all cause similar very mild illnesses?

No. They said last week there might never be a vaccine, or it might take years.

If social distancing remained until there was a vaccine (if they find one that works), no one would have relationships (unless already living with your partner), the birth rate would drop until a vaccine was found, schools would close as there would be far less children. And so on.

Mental health would be even more terrible. Suicides would increase.

I’ve seen many pictures of people in Spain hugging their grandchildren for the first time in months. If they can do that, then why can’t we? It seems every other country are relaxing their lockdown rules, and a lot are letting you see family etc in your home. So why wouldn’t we be able to do that?

cats
You sound about five. It's not about keeping up with the Jones or getting your fair share. Every country has its own risk profile and will live with the consequences of it's choices. Don't envy Spain until you see how the second wave goes. Our country can't and shouldn't come out of lockdown until it can be done without triggering a second wave.

Please read above for Tulips post on vaccines. More information is coming through all the time about the trials which are promising, especially in America. Throwing your hands up and saying there will never be a vaccine might feel good in the short term because there's then no point living carefully until it arrives..but it will be kick, much better for everyone if we did avoid a second wave and the vaccine currently being trialled successfully goes on to become available. That would keep children and grandparents together in a much more significant way. What you're suggesting will remove many grandparents permanently. Which would be a shame to put it mildly if there does happen to be better treatment (highly likely)/a vaccine (likely) in sight.

much

Not going to happen.

When I was a teenager we were all going to die of HIV/AIDS (37.9 million people are living with HIV and it has resulted in 770,000 deaths).

I remember adverts with large black slabs - did not stop teenagers having unprotected sex at all.

I don’t think those figures are right for HIV. Does it not still kill about half a million people a year?

Deaths are 95% those with underlying health conditions. In all the deaths in New York 0.7% of deaths were those without an underlying health condition. In a sane world the healthy would return to normal life and the vulnerable would be shielded pending a vaccine

I totally disagree. This would push the R rate up, many people would still die, many would get sick, many for a long time, masses would be off work, vital services would collapse with so many people off sick, schools would barely cope and herd immunity is not a viable plan. This may all kick off again. Hot spots would still occur in care homes, prisons, meat factories, hospitals. In the meantime, people like my mum and those with say cystic fibrosis or cancer would be locked indoors unable to even go for a walk for a year or more.

How on earth is that any kind of solution? And how inhumane to not change at all?

Why do you think no country has done this?

I can remember adverts with large black slabs - did not stop teenagers having unprotected sex at all. of course it changes behaviour. Plenty of evidence that gay men took this on board and thousands of lives saved. There’s always some that won’t...

There is really good examples of how we can learn:

• which social distancing measures are most important. E.g. reduce indoor mass close gatherings = no; spaced out restaurants and outdoor sports = yes. Seeing our families = yes. Open plan offices = no. We probably don’t have to be strict forever. We can do many things, most businesses can go back, many aspects of ordinary life can go back.

• test and contact tracing, regional level responses, targeted prevention as hot spots re-emerge, will all mean we can have far less severe social distancing and still keep the risk low.

There is plenty of hope folks without throwing everything out and going hugging crazy and locking our old folk up forever!

HIV definitely did stop teenagers having unprotected sex... why would you think it didn't? I grew up in the 90s and it loomed large in our minds. Of course but everyone did, but I'm sure a huge number more than had we been 70s teenagers.

Re hiv and unprotected sex, I think lots of young people now are not anywhere near as aware of that virus are they? After all the 90s was a long time ago. It's seen as a thing of the past, like diphtheria and polio is to my generation (60s baby)

I hope the scientific researchers are spending as much money and energy on finding treatments for the cv as they are the vaccine.

They never found a hiv vaccine did they? And the flu vaccine is not a fail safe guarantee either as there are always various other strains of flu you can catch that are not part of this vaccine.

I’m hoping treatments similar to those that have helped people with hiv and also similar to tamiflu are developed.

But yes I do think some elements of social distancing with continue.

Less crowding in venues. More restrictions on the number of tables in cafes and restaurants and head counts and then lock outs in pubs to restrict numbers. Spacing in queues. More virtual meetings and conferences and wfh.

I think I will be quite some time before weddings and other similar large mingling events will be allowed.

We keep being warned that the ‘second wave’ is coming after there barely being a frost wave. I feel that some of the politicians are really enjoying the power trip

Are you in SA? That's exactly how I feel about our health minister and her premier given emergency powers. We barely saw a ripple as a first wave. Now she coming across as scaremongering and being too slow to open up.

Glad our premier caved and has let pubs open too. 10 inside, 10 outside.

I think that was me Sqeekums. Yes, I’m in SA. No problem with the initial restrictions and it’s fantastic that we have no cases but we need to not be too cautious. Out and about this morning people seem very keen to get back to as ‘normal’ as possible.

My idea is that we keep the borders to Vic and NSW closed but start opening up to places like WA, NT and maybe even New Zealand. Very little risk and lots of upside.

I bloody hope not. They have said a vaccine may never be found.

I think it's very likely there will be a vaccine within the year. There has never been so much money and research thrown at a virus before, this is unprecedented. Vaccines do exist for coronavirus in animals (I think cats and horses?), so it's not impossible.

@whatswithtodaytoday the ones I read about were chicken and cow vaccines (made sense due to the money involved in livestock) and I’m sure someone mentioned their puppy receiving a corona virus family vaccine.

It’s definitely possible.

@posterwhatswithtodaytoday

Seeing as the UK had the 3rd highest rate of teenage pregnancy during those years in western countries the figures do not agree with you.

“I think there will be a quiet revolution as more and more people decide to live their life and risk getting the virus“

Possibly. Though historic revolutions generally came about because people demanded a better life.
Not quite sure how unfettered access to a deathly virus fulfills that need.

Life without mass gatherings and mixing with friends, family and new people just isn't life. I say that as an introvert who lives alone. I've been fine for weeks and weeks, but I'm done. The shambolic mixed messages from the government give me no confidence they are creating a way forward and I'm losing interest in their bullshit.

I wonder, theoretically, if a woman who didn’t live with her partner or had a new boyfriend got pregnant, would a midwife “shop them in” for meeting up and having sex when we keep being told you can’t touch anyone outside your household?

🤔

there will not be a lifelong vaccine

the tests are incredibly inaccurate

we have to learn to live with it