'Coronavirus could be wiped out in London in weeks'?

[StrawberryRaven]

apple.news/AQChr2oq-SKqjEdQMD53_xQ

According to this sky news article London are only seeing 24 new cases a day, whilst the NE are seeing 4000.

Given that nationwide we all locked down at the same time, and if anything it should (in theory) be harder to slow the spread in a densely populated city like London... doesn't this suggest that the virus might have simply run out of people to infect in London?

Could there be an element of herd immunity going on here? What other reason could there be that I'm missing? 🧐

Absolutely no chance will it be wiped out in London in a few weeks. I'll bookmark this thread and return then...

I feel the 4000 figure is total rubbish - why is everyone taking it as gospel because it was in a newspaper. PHE may have questionable efficiency but they would have accurate figures surely. Big differance between 93 and 4000.

It sounds like great news but I'm afraid I don't believe it.

That's it London is off limits to anyone outside London, dont bring the virus back into London, us local Londoners dont want you flooding in to escape your area. Stay away

Haha! My thoughts exactly cycling mad! We don’t want any rural or coastal germs here!

I did wonder if the problem will come back once all the people who live outside the M25 but commute in to London daily start coming back in. Many banks are still telling their staff to work from home until end of June.

What's goign on in the NE though? Did people think it was super bad in London/south East so they didn't really need to lockdown?

This is great to have local information to help assess risks.

@StrawberryRaven our testing isn't piss poor as the media would lead you to believe... see attached. Also, isn't London 2 weeks ahead of the rest of England?

@cyclingmad I'm guessing you're kidding? it's us folk out in the sticks whom are worried about it being transported from inner cities to the countryside for UK hols later on in the year!! Did you miss all of the articles about Londoners travelling to second homes, caravan sites, etc. and to Wales during beginning of lockdown? I can't imagine anyone with a brain wanting to visit London if it's non-essential right now or in the near future.

@cathyandclare

Thank you for teaching me a new word!

Tricoteuse.

Also, isn't London 2 weeks ahead of the rest of England?

But if we are saying that lockdown is the reason why cases have reduced then being 2 weeks ahead would surely be a disadvantage rather than an advantage because in theory lockdown should nip a low-level epidemic in the bud far more quickly than a more established one? Unless of course there is an element of herd immunity at play.

I will concede that we are getting much better at testing but but still a long way from the numbers being massively useful in gauging the real situation. They are useful comparing figures like this though (assuming comparative numbers per population number in each area are being tested and so on).

@VenusTiger we know you out in the sticks are worried about dirty Londoners bringing the virus, it's been on very single thread ! It's quite funny that those 2nd home owners who have ridden this out in London might be at more risk from the neighbours from their 2nd home than their 1st home if they go there at the summer....

We'll have a new MN complaint, those terrible 2nd home owners going to their country houses then bringing it back to the Capital in September...

(Neither a londoner nor a country dweller here, commuter town dweller - we were worried about a second spike once all the London workers started going back in, but round here most aren't going in for a few more weeks, that would be great if we can encourage companies to wait just until June to really lower the risk)

@VenusTiger

It was a dig all those nonsensical posts from others about people going to the coast and all the crap us Londoners are having thrown at us.

Well well tables turned now, maybe people should just stop saying stupid things like dont come here we don't want you..when they dont own anything other than by the house they pay for.

London hit their peak before the north east.

What's goign on in the NE though? Did people think it was super bad in London/south East so they didn't really need to lockdown?

I just don't think it's this. I live in the NE and I know a fair few people socially and through work and they are all being very cautious. I don't see much obvious rule breaking going on around me. My daughter's nursery said hardly any parents are sending children back on 1st of June. I'm not saying no one's breaking the rules, but I really don't feel it can be any worse than anywhere else - certainly not enough to explain the differences.

It would be fantastic if that were true. However, we need to be massively cautious as one thing the pandemic has taught me is that scientific reports need to be treated sceptically, whether positive or negative. I’ve copied this from the BBC website as it’s useful context:

However, claims there are now just 24 cases a day in the capital and that it could soon be free of the virus have been criticised.
There were in fact 49 people admitted to London hospitals with Covid-19 yesterday and probably hundreds of cases that did not need hospital treatment.
"I am extremely worried about the media message that London could be coronavirus free in days," said Prof Matt Keeling, from the University of Warwick. He added: "If people think London is coronavirus-free that could be dangerous, and could lead to complacency, undermining all the struggles and sacrifices that everyone has made so far. A relaxation of vigilance could easily see R increasing above 1, and a second epidemic wave."

I really don't feel it can be any worse than anywhere else - certainly not enough to explain the differences

This is why we need testing and contact tracing up and running. Our lockdown hadn’t been particularly strict so there’s still opportunity for community infections to happen.

It may be due to transport of goods or someone from abroad whose travelled directly into the community. It could be that we’ve underestimated the incubation period (I have seen unverifiable comments on it being up to 28 days not 14 on occasion). That’s what happens with exponential growth, it doesn’t take much to set off a chain reaction even with limited opportunities like in lockdown.

Time to build a wall around the M25. Send everyone else to Coventry to join Professor Matt Keeling

Oh my God. This is delusional. I'm worried about you all.

Interesting article

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/15/regional-differences-in-covid-19-transmission-rate-emerge-in-england

However, claims there are now just 24 cases a day in the capital and that it could soon be free of the virus have been criticised.
There were in fact 49 people admitted to London hospitals with Covid-19 yesterday

Of course both those statements could be true as the 49 people admitted are not new cases - it normally takes 10 days or so before being admitted. I do think 24 cases seems unrealistically low though.

That's it London is off limits to anyone outside London, dont bring the virus back into London, us local Londoners dont want you flooding in to escape your area. Stay away

That's it London is off limits to anyone outside London, dont bring the virus back into London, us local Londoners dont want you flooding in to escape your area. Stay away

This definitely! I’m sure the media can coin a nice term about the M25 being a ring of steel or such like!

All second home escapees can bloody stay put. It’s been lovely and quiet, plenty of loo roll and home delivery slots!

The difference in rates at the moment between London and elsewhere is quite bizarre.

In my inner London ward, vaccination rates are 57.6% with two doses. Case rate to 20th Oct is just 102.8 per 100,000.

I have family in Bedfordshire. Where they are, 76.8% have two doses. Yet the rate is 676.1 per 100,000!

How bizarre!

This thread is from May last year!