'Coronavirus could be wiped out in London in weeks'?

[StrawberryRaven]

apple.news/AQChr2oq-SKqjEdQMD53_xQ

According to this sky news article London are only seeing 24 new cases a day, whilst the NE are seeing 4000.

Given that nationwide we all locked down at the same time, and if anything it should (in theory) be harder to slow the spread in a densely populated city like London... doesn't this suggest that the virus might have simply run out of people to infect in London?

Could there be an element of herd immunity going on here? What other reason could there be that I'm missing? 🧐

That is such a big discrepancy. It warrants more analysis.

Be good to see the antibody results, will be a while though.

We created the peak by isolating!

If it's an artificial peak created by lockdown- which I assumed it was- why are the areas that had low levels of infections at lockdown now reporting higher rates of infection? They should have had low peaks at the same time, shouldn't they?

The confirmed cases are a better indication than deaths. The death figures are a total farce. Have either read of a case today and also ones with family friends where older people have died, and with having no symptoms of Covid and no test either are having "presumed Covid" put on their death certificates which has come as utter shock to their family...means the system avoids doing PM or other evidencing to certify death. Even people dying of heart attacks, if they had symptoms of Covid it can be signed off as Covid!!

This country is a joke frankly.

If it's an artificial peak created by lockdown- which I assumed it was- why are the areas that had low levels of infections at lockdown now reporting higher rates of infection? They should have had low peaks at the same time, shouldn't they?

I wonder this too @cathyandclare. It doesn't make sense. I don't believe that the NE have been widely breaking lockdown rules. Like others have said, there will be pockets of rule breaking but it's the same everywhere.

This country is a joke frankly

I’ll be sure to look for your name next time I’m at the polling booth then.

I’m no fan of this government (complete opposite) but this is a pandemic so time isn’t exactly a luxury available to us right now and covid has been shown to cause cardiac complications along with clotting issues inducing strokes. Countries not including suspected covid deaths are being widely condemned for fudging their figures. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

There’s no time machine available but it will be clear in a year or so whether or not there were extra deaths likely attributable to covid or not by making yearly comparisons.

There’s a lot this government can and should be criticised for but this isn’t one of them.

The news previous to this was that the SE rate of infection was half that of the north right now
So this doesn’t surprise me

I also had a call a few weeks ago from the royal free rebooking me in for my surgery that had been postponed, when I said to them I was surprised they told me the peak had happened and things were a lot better than they had imagined

I’m boggling at the idea that London somehow locked down more tightly than other parts of the country - so the figures are ‘artificial’.

Someone else posted about this this morning and loads of people had a go at them. Funny how threads vary.

Yes Bess I saw that in AIBU, the OP was savaged. There's definitely a tricoteuse element on MN.

I’m just reading that thread now! It’s as if most of them don’t realise how infections work and spread.

London is a major hub even in lockdown flights were coming and going. It’s likely they were the worst hit to begin with so this is not surprising that it will start to calm down

It’s also was the researchers of the COVID-19 symptoms app has been showing for the last few weeks

It's good news, I think. Our neighbours are doctors, and they've both said similar - their (London/Surrey) hospitals now beginning to open up for non-Covid stuff etc.

But - and I think it's a massive but - let's wait and see what happens in the next fortnight, after lockdown has been eased. I suspect London is a bit different from other cities, in that so many people use very crowded public transport to get to work. Pictures since lockdown was eased has shown just how crowded tube trains are again. A hotbed for new infections.

I'm glad I no longer have to use public transport!

Hopefully a lot of the jobs done in London are the sort that can be done from home.

If you release too early you get a second higher peak.
Are the NE particularly overweight? Is it in more care homes there?
Vit d deficient?
Bristol seems to still be getting a few deaths a day.
They think London may be as high as 10%. But if it has infected all
care homes/keyworkers etc it would slow dow.
Im sure people in london will have been more carefully than in other areas.
It grows so quickly it probably only takes a load of people in b&q etc to create a hotspot.

Some of you are really rubbber neck car crash watchers aren't you. Positive news and it's all "no, not true. We are all going to die so choose your coffin now!"
I fucking despair and think some of you need help.

Keepdistance those factors (Weight etc) would effect deaths but not case discrepancy.

It is only below 1 because we have had lock-down.

Not in London.

London deaths plateaued on April 4 which means R0 started falling 3 weeks prior to that, i.e. during the week starting March 16. The official lockdown became effective on March 24.

London trend has always puzzled me. Early peak indicates that either (i) soft social distancing measures were already working and the stringent lockdown / stay at home campaign might have had little marginal benefit (at least, for London) or (ii) London population had developed sufficient acquired immunity that started driving R0 down.

Antibody testing will help with (ii) but it might not give a full picture. Some people may be naturally immune to C19. Others might have had milder versions of the disease and fought with T-cells without developing antibodies. I am wondering if there are ethical ways to test population level resistance in addition to antibody testing.

I doubt those figures. We have had only 10 deaths the last two days in ireland but 426 cases. And our testing nowhere near thorough enough to have a clear picture.
I suspect the second wave will be end September to mid nov, with restrictions applied again.

This is not going away. It isnt less infectious than it was. We arent immune. As soon as restrictions are lifted, cases will rocket.
We have to accept it

@Coronabored that is your mindset, denial. Im ok because of acceptance.

No there are charts showing transport worldwide dropped leading up to lockdowns it was down hugely. Everyone was wfh already and keepimg kids off in the last 2w plus of course anyone SI due to illness.
Shielding had already been told they would soon have to stay in.

According to Worldometer there were 3400 odd new cases yesterday so how are the North East getting 4000 new cases a day? I’m confused

London was a few weeks ahead, it makes sense that there's a disparity between there and other places if you're looking at data from the same day. Its great news, and no, London has been quieter but certainly not empty; especially public transport as Khan had the wonderful idea to cut it (beyond staff absence).

As soon as restrictions are lifted, cases will rocket.
We have to accept it

@myhappinessproject that depends on your definition of rocket.

I’m under no illusions we’re in this for the long haul but social distancing and hygiene methods (my personal cause to champion is face masks) have been backed up by the numbers in other countries. Of course there will still be transmissions and the potential for cracks to cause larger outbreaks but these have been proved to be controllable with the right tools.

There’s a middle ground between it’s all fine and bodies piling up in the morgue.

Half of cases in uk are key workers
Otherwise cases are just people sick enough for hospitalisation ie the underlying condition people mainly.
So areas of poor heath would have higher hospitalision.
If millions of 0-20 had CV now we would know less about that until they infect older people. Likewise of millions of elderly we will have lots of deaths.
In areas where lots of young healthy people they are probably getting just as infected it's just hidden

Some of you are really rubbber neck car crash watchers aren't you. Positive news and it's all "no, not true. We are all going to die so choose your coffin now!"

Not at all. But being high risk of dying if I get this, and leaving my children without a mother at this stage in their lives terrifies me. For that reason alone I think it's more then reasonable to treat any news with caution. I do the same with 'worst case scenario news too, fwiw.

I fucking despair and think some of you need help.

Anyone that needs to add something like this to a comment in a discussion, simply because not everyone holds the same view is the person needing help imo. What's wrong with simply making your point and not resorting to that