Should Patrick Vallance have resigned over the ‘herd immunity’ comments?

[Redolent]

The misleading term ‘herd immunity’ is now firmly imbedded into the UK citizenry’s consciousness, despite the government’s repeated insistence that they never intended to pursue it. (Eg Hancock this week) Not only is the concept itself flawed and unlikely to ‘work’, as WHO has repeatedly warned, but Vallance’s use of the term threatens to undermine all current and future attempts to continue the virus. ‘Oh well, we’re pursuing herd immunity anyway...’ as people increasingly defy the rules. On BBC Health Check this morning, Dr Xand told the audience his impression that the UK strategy is still broadly one of herd immunity...

Of course Vallance reflects the government’s flawed thinking, but I’m very surprised that they haven’t chosen him as a fall guy, and as a way of banishing this term for good.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

I suspect it is because they are still hoping for it, but can't risk officially stating this so they are avoid blame when it all backfires.

Isn't herd immunity our only hope? Once enough members of the herd have antibodies then the R value drops dramatically. Without it we'll be hiding under our dining-room tables until domesday.

Herd immunity isn't a misleading term. It's a scientific term relating to indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.

Whether we can achieve herd immunity against Covid-19 without the death of half a million Britons is another question. We need more data and research to understand that. It may be that a proportion of the population fight the virus using their innate immune response, rather than antibodies.

Well there are three ways out of this arent there:

• hopefulky a vaccine happens this year
• heard immunity, hopefully done fairly slowly
• total lockdown to eradicate and then permanent isolation

@GoatyGoatyMingeMinge

Not according to the latest research. From yesterday’s Daily Telegraph;

France and Spain say coronavirus data and tests show no herd immunity across population

‘No more than five per cent of the population of France and Spain - two of the countries hardest-hit by the coronavirus - have contracted the disease, say two new studies in a major blow to hopes of “herd immunity.”

@cathyandclare

Thanks. I know it’s not misleading in and of itself, but it’s use - at such an early stage of our understanding of this disease - certainly was.

Alternatively from the University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium:
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/14/uk-coronavirus-live-antibody-test-approved-for-use-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ebd1c018f08a55ecde59c6d#block-5ebd1c018f08a55ecde59c6d
More than 25% of Britons may have already had coronavirus

Absolutely not. It is the only alternative besides a vaccine which may never happen. Ridiculous to even assume otherwise, the lack of basic scientific knowledge in this country is astounding.

Isn't herd immunity our only hope?

AARRRRGGGGHHHH!!!!

I think I need to step away from the Covid threads before my head explodes.

I am not sure that immunity has yet been totally proven, or how long someone is immune for. I would imagine that for this to work it would be through a vaccine.

- hopefulky a vaccine happens this year
- heard immunity, hopefully done fairly slowly

Vaccine is a subset of herd immunity. In words a vaccination programme is one way to achieve herd immunity.

Well they need someone to say herd immunity - because, well we’re just letting it spread but slowly sounds worse...

Is there any data from Sweden yet - the one European country in which higher levels of exposure might be expected because they didn't lock down? Its hardly surprising there's not much in France and Spain.

What good would Patrick Vallance resigning do?

@Bigfishylittlefishy

So what do you think of the ‘test, trace, isolate’ strategy successfully used by the likes of South Korea, and being urgently advocated by experts like ex-WHO chief Anthony Costello?

The R rate is lower now in London and the Midlands- both early CV hotspots. That could indicate some level of herd protection ( or better adherence to lockdown because of fear)

Herd immunity really needs to not be the plan. It is crazy if they are still planning for this. Sars is a similar virus and it has 2 years immunity. If we just let it spread to create
Immunity we will be in an endless cycle of peaks forever

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-who-uk-matt-hancock-a9510231.html

I wish I knew what the government were planning I wish they would explain. Because lifting lockdown now does look like they are hoping for herd immunity at some point because it will just spread again. But surely they can’t really be doing that? It is a flawed concept

@Redolent I think that’s a pipe dream in the UK. Unfortunately. It will be a shambles, half arse attempt. My mum and sister are both nurses and have applied for one of those 18000 posts, so far the recruitment process has been a shambles.

No faith in it whatsoever.

@cathyandclare I live in London and lockdown has been very lax - it’s impossible not to pass people closely and I’ve seen people openly ignoring the rules throughout.

Carrie Symons’ friends haven’t even been following the rules!

Thanks Itsawedding one -I hope there is a degree of protection even with a relatively small proportion infected. The R was reported today as 0.4 in London, which is good when lockdown is a little lax!

What good would Patrick Vallance resigning do?

"Burn the witch, cleanse the community" presumably.
It's the madness of crowds.

"Burn the witch, cleanse the community"

There are definitely increasing similarities to The Crucible.

Quite.
Poor Matt Hancock Tituba.