Should Patrick Vallance have resigned over the ‘herd immunity’ comments?

[Redolent]

The misleading term ‘herd immunity’ is now firmly imbedded into the UK citizenry’s consciousness, despite the government’s repeated insistence that they never intended to pursue it. (Eg Hancock this week) Not only is the concept itself flawed and unlikely to ‘work’, as WHO has repeatedly warned, but Vallance’s use of the term threatens to undermine all current and future attempts to continue the virus. ‘Oh well, we’re pursuing herd immunity anyway...’ as people increasingly defy the rules. On BBC Health Check this morning, Dr Xand told the audience his impression that the UK strategy is still broadly one of herd immunity...

Of course Vallance reflects the government’s flawed thinking, but I’m very surprised that they haven’t chosen him as a fall guy, and as a way of banishing this term for good.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

Burn the witch, cleanse the community presumably.
It's the madness of crowds.

It's threads like this that make me agree with those who say MN has gone batshit crazy lately.

What a completely ridiculous suggestion OP.

To achieve herd immunity naturally would be totally irresponsible and result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

The only way that this could be achieved would be by vaccine.

The problem is I think a lot of people do think herd immunity by natural infection is our way out now. You see people on here say don’t people realise they can’t avoid it forever, we are all going to have to get it in the end. And this mentality doesn’t help the lock down and getting everyone to stick to the rules

If the govt policy wasn't still herd immunity, they'd be locking down hard until cases were low enough to track and trace. Instead they have done half assed lockdowns, eased it when figures are still high and constantly talk about 'peaks' at the right times instead of about avoiding peaks through proper management and control. We are still getting the virus but in a maneagable way. I truly think that's their longterm (over the next few years) plan and if a vaccine is successful in the meanwhile brilliant.

Sv sadly I think you are right otherwise lifting the lockdown now doesn’t make sense. They just haven’t fully admitted. It makes me sad that vulnerable and shielding people will have restrict their life’s now. If it is in the community they will have to live in fear of it

@Blueberryham what you suggest the situation with covid19 should be in 1 or 2 years then? I don't have a blase attitude about my health or those around me but without a vaccine or effective treatments we can only go for:

• everyone slowly getting it so as not to overwhelm the NHS. Vunerable stay locked down for a very long time.
• very strict lockdown to eradicate it then no international travel

You missed an option

We could do a sturdy test track and trace approach to keep the levels in society so low that the risk even to be shielded is negligible, which is a common approach in other countries

I just think a longer lockdown now. Maybe another month would be enough time to get it low enough and to get track and trace in place and working. I feel it is too early now to release restrictions. And another month would give us more leeway. This is our chance now. Would 12 week lockdown really be so much worse than an 8 week lockdown?

This is our chance now! We won’t persuade British people to do a hard lockdown again in a few months. But I think we could be convinced now to keep going a few more weeks. And track test and trace from then on. This is our best shot at it

For some reason, I don't think the goverment see track and trace as a long term solution. I don't know why. If they'd locked down as hard as other countries numbers would be approaching low enough for track and trace. I'm not sure they even know if they're committed to track and trace or herd immunity, but as a whole I think their approach is leaning towards herd immunity. How bad (or good) an idea this is depends on factors we just don't know yet like how long any immunity lasts and how long a vaccine might take, assuming one even becomes available.

@Blueberryham they've lost momentum for the lockdown now unfortunately. Reintroducing a harder lockdown as an 'emergency' measure might work, but unless they really get people's attention i don't think most will care at this point.

I don’t think herd immunity by natural infection really works for many other virus. I think it is scientifically not really possible? It’s a concept that only works with vaccine. I am confused if they have scientists telling them it’s a good idea

I think if they explained the reasoning to the public they may get them on board though? A lot of people just don’t really understand this approach and are getting impatient. But the government are a bit cloak and dagger about it all and not really explaining what their “plan” is

I am just feeling sad as I don’t want Britain to miss another opportunity to get it under control

On what grounds should he resign, in your opinion?

Using a term that you don’t like, even though he is, you know, the chief scientific adviser?

Not only is the concept itself flawed and unlikely to ‘work’, as WHO has repeatedly warned, but Vallance’s use of the term threatens to undermine all current and future attempts to continue the virus

How do you know that the concept is flawed?

Also, maybe this is a typo and you meant ‘contain the virus’, but who is making ‘current and future attempts to continue the virus’?

Long may Vallance continue in post.

Herd immunity isn't a misleading term. It's a scientific term relating to indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.

This ^

The government never had a plan called 'herd immunity'. It was part of the modelling used by scientists. Whether their models were correct or not remains to be seen. You can argue that the government did not act quickly or decisively enough. I certainly think it was a huge mistake to give up testing people outside of hospitals.

Every dimbo I know has complained bitterly that the government wants them to adopt a ‘herd mentality’. Insert your own punchline.

Vaccines are often used to achieve herd immunity (as numerous PP have pointed out).

Not everyone has to have a given vaccine for there to be herd immunity. Just a majority.

Although it works in reverse too. Take the BCG, I had it in secondary school in 1992 and TB was all be eradicated, to the point the BCG for 12yo was taken off the vaccine schedule. By the time I had children (2012) there had been a huge resurgence in TB and BCG's are provided (in some areas, namely big cities) when a child is 3 weeks. My youngest was in Neonatal so had it when she was 11 days.

Sorry not relevant to the covid vaccine but more vaccines in general.

@Blueberryham That’s my understanding, that’s herd immunity is something you pursue with a vaccine.

Some quotes from Boris's Bumper Book Of Staying Alert:

In the medium-term, allowing the virus to spread in an uncontrolled manner until natural population-level immunity is achieved would put the NHS under enormous pressure. At no point has this been part of the Government’s strategy .

As with many other respiratory infections, it is impossible to guarantee that nobody will be infected with this virus in the future, or that none of those infections will lead to tragic deaths. However, it is important to be clear that there is no part of this plan that assumes an ‘acceptable’ level of infection or mortality .

www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy

Yes I think Vallance should resign. I think he has done far more damage than Neil Ferguson.

AARRRRGGGGHHHH!!!!

Also what flingaling said!

There was a meeting on gmtv with Boris at the beginning where he did seem to be saying there was a train of thought that you could take a big hit with the first peak of the virus and allow some immunity to build. Or that seemed to be the jist of it. So I think they were thinking this at some point.

No Vallance shouldn’t resign.

With Track & Trace, if there is no vaccine/effective treatment and also no global uniformity in testing capability (assuming the advantages of Track & Trace are that we get to live ‘normally’ incl. international travel) then you eventually end up with the same result - most people will catch it. It’ll just take longer.

So I think (slower paced, protect NHS capacity) herd immunity is still very much on the table.

There's a lot of conflicting data re. herd immunity. Also this was Sweden's whole plan and I don't see people critiquing them in the same way for thinking it.

So no. Unless you're an epidemiologist with credentials and a view you'd like to share to be critiqued YABVU.