Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

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Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Agree HawkinsLab. It is extremely distasteful. But then they know that already.

Hi all,

Just a quick note to say it's not in the spirit to post images of those who have died and speculate about whether or not the person in question was overweight. We've deleted some posts now but any further ones will likely result in a suspension. Thanks.

I think Tewkesbury hospital is the designated Covid hospital in the Cheltenham area - but I might be wrong.

Bromsgrove isn't very diverse, I used to live there and visit frequently.

I only mentioned Bromsgove in the context of it being very close to Birmingham - people working, shopping, studying there etc - Bromsgrove wasn't on my other list. White British people work, shop and study as well.

Plenty of people in Solihull probably do work at Birmingham Airport and the NEC as they are both in Solihull not Birmingham.

I didn't know that! I see that Solihull is only 7.5 miles from Birmingham.

I wonder what percentage of Birmingham universities' students come from Solihull and live at home and how many of them are Chinese? I think you might be stretching it a bit.

Obviously not - I don't know why you thought I meant that. British students living at home with their parents and studying at one of the Birmingham universities - mixing with Chinese students - one of whom may have brought the virus here directly from China (multiple other possible entry routes of course) - we do know the virus originated in China.

From the university site there are 1337 Chinese students at Birmingham university

I think you were looking at a different website;

"The University of Birmingham is one of the most popular universities in the UK for Chinese students we now welcome around 1000 students from China every year."

www.birmingham.ac.uk/International/global-engagement/china-institute/advice-funding/students-alumni/studying-uob/index.aspx

Birmingham City University has an exchange programme with Wuhan Textile University - a British student or member of staff may have brought the virus back from Wuhan;

www.bcu.ac.uk/international/bifca/our-partnership/wuhan-textile-university

"The University of Birmingham has nearly 3000 Chinese students and the University of Warwick about 2,300.The number of Chinese students is likely to exceed 10,000 when all the Universities in the West Midlands are put together."

I think Tewkesbury hospital is the designated Covid hospital in the Cheltenham area - but I might be wrong.

That would only affect hospital transmissions - the figures are by place of residence, not death location

17% tested positive for antibodies in London apparently, 5% or more across the rest of the population. Results according to the national sampling carried out so far with more tests to come. Announced in today’s daily briefing.

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves It is completely absolutely certain with no possible doubt whatsoever that age is a risk factor on its own. This cannot possibly be denied." Can you give a reference for that? Thanks

LilyMumsnet

I do want to point out that my deleted posts were very sensitively worded in my opinion - 'unfortunately', 'sadly'. I didn't post 'images' - I linked to ITV news.

Solihull is an affluent area. Lot of skiing and half term foreign trips taken. Bromsgrove School is a very big international boarding school with day pupils aswell. I think they have satellite schools around the Far East and certainly welcome boarders from this area. Pupils returning after Christmas break could well have brought the virus into the area.

@Clavinova I only mentioned Bromsgove in the context of it being very close to Birmingham - people working, shopping, studying there etc - Bromsgrove wasn't on my other list. White British people work, shop and study as well. This made me laugh, admittedly there are many Brummies in Bromsgrove but when I lived in there local people considered Worcester "their" city and generally regarded Birmingham as the evil empire. Lots of the Brummies who moved there worked at Longbridge but now the car factory has gone I suspect it isn't as popular with Brummies.

I didn't know that! I see that Solihull is only 7.5 miles from Birmingham. They changed the border some years ago. Obviously you would assume Birmingham Airport was in Birmingham, when it was in Birmingham it was called Elmdon Airport just to confuse the issue. You wouldn't notice where the border is between Solihull and Birmingham, there is no gap.

I think Warwick students tend to live in Coventry or Leamington or maybe Kenilworth.

Can you give a reference for that? Thanks

It's in the link I provided. They adjust for other factors. Age is delinked from other factors and is much bigger than any other factors

ONS - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot: England, 21 May 2020

Note:
although the ONS found age made no significant difference in the likelihood of catching COVID,
age makes a massive difference as to how severe the illness is - and the risk of death

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england21may2020#toc

There is no evidence suggesting sex or age have an impact on the likelihood of an individual having COVID-19

There is no evidence of differences in the proportions of men and women testing positive for COVID-19

Thanks for that link shoots sorry I haven't had a chance to return since I asked. Very hot day at work today and came home, showered, ate dinner and rang my mum after her chemo.
No life in lockdown beach trips for me and it's 7 minutes drive!

Interesting data from the ons study. Seems London really was our epicentre and has a act higher modelled population with antibodies compared to the rest of uk.

I would expect the UK - and most other European countries - to have a significantly lower level of antibodies than Sweden,

So even though the % in Sweden must have risen over the last 3 weeks, this low rate is bad news

Possibly a lot of people got COVID without producing antibodies ?
So are those people immune ?
We don't even know yet if antibodies means COVID immunity, or for how long

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus

Just 7.3% of Stockholm’s inhabitants had developed Covid-19 antibodies by the end of April, according to a study,

There a tense interview with Sadiq and OM on GMB this morning. Mayor said he had asked for independent enquirey into the tfl worker deaths. He said it has become clear there are some really high risk factors that were just not known about and they would be looking at socio economics and housing and lifestyles etc.

On my Linkedin, the Auditor and Comptroller General is already planning a series of reports into this whole situation

I admit I'd MUCH rather that
(because it will be fast, thorough, apolitical)
than any sort of public inquiry.

The use of death statistics in this day and age needs reviewing
BUT
as was pointed out in the Economist the other week
in countries like Tanzania, only a small percentage of births are registered but most deaths are
and some countries have not had a reliable census since 2001
so percentages are not even comparable across the world

Does anyone know where figures can be found with confirmed cases by age please??

1forsorrow
That is interesting about Bromsgrove and Solihull.

I think Warwick students tend to live in Coventry or Leamington or maybe Kenilworth.

Yes, I visited Warwick University with DS1 last summer - nice university but having to travel in from Coventry/Leamington Spa after the first year meant it didn't quite make his shortlist.

woodpigeons If you just want confirmed cases not deaths, by age, then scroll down

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

It's more disgusting when it's an essential worker because they put their lives at risk for those who have the choice to stay in and stay safe. Wouldnt need to explain that to anyone with an ounce of compassion.

And using "sadly" and linking to tv news are disgusting excuses.

That's just England, of course

Very inconvenient in the country that is the UK, we don't have a proper dashboard showing all 4 nations and combined
I think we have to hunt data for the 3 smaller nations separately

Daily briefing shows a slight rise in admissions for England. I had expected to see discussion of that. London still falling,

The ONS covers all the UK, but it is older data

They said in tonight's briefing that they believed that 17% of London infected. And 5% possibly more elsewhere.