Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

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Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Article in Times today saying BAME not at greater risk. More linked to social deprivation

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-19-being-black-does-not-put-you-at-greater-risk-researchers-say-vdf05prr6?shareToken=ab5a706e851c0ef023c6de405b87f199

I think that's the uncomfortable story about the BAME rate, that they are disproportionately disadvantaged and working in jobs that are currently high risk, in care, the NHS, transport.

Thanks for the share token, whatsnext2.

It doesn't exactly say they are not more at risk.

They have been at much greater risk of becoming infected. That is inevitable and inarguable just from geography.

But over and above that, as wonderstuff says, they are at greater risk because of the jobs they do .

However once infected, then comparing people with the same characteristics, they have no greater risk. I.e. a morbidly obese black person who catches covid-19 is at greater risk than a morbidly obese white person.

It's interesting that they note that obesity is essentially only a risk factor in the young. This is very important in that deaths are overwhelmingly old people, so if you don't separate the old from the young, your pool of data will be swamped by the tens of thousands of elderly deaths

So it seems to be

Young, healthy people at low risk
Young, obviously unhealthy people at significantly higher risk than them

And then old people are sort of inherently unhealthy just by age, so weight isn't so important

"50,000 deaths as a result of a (supposedly) high ethnic minority population"

I think we were only discussing possible reasons why ethnic minority groups might be disproportionately affected by coronavirus, not that they accounted for the majority of the excess deaths in the UK - although religious practices and social customs might have aided the spread of the disease to other communities, just as attending the Cheltenham Festival is often mentioned.

Just glancing at the list above without checking - Harrow, Brent, Croydon, Ealing, Walsall, Enfield, Barnet, Solihull and Watford all have sizeable ethnic minority communities even if they don't resemble inner London.

Solihull is close to Birmingham airport and the NEC - Birmingham University has a significant number of Chinese students and Birmingham City University has an exchange programme with one of the universities in Wuhan.

"The Board of Deputies of British Jews has been reporting on disproportionate deaths among Jews for weeks, but it doesn't seem to be a particular interest more widely."

This has been mentioned in the London press - several areas in the top 20 list above have Jewish communities including Epping Forest.

The Times article also states;

"The documents also show that among younger people obesity raises the death rate fourfold, and for those in their fifties it more than doubles it."

Solihull is close to Birmingham airport and the NEC - Birmingham University has a significant number of Chinese students and Birmingham City University has an exchange programme with one of the universities in Wuhan. I don't think many Birmingham University or Birmingham City University students live in Solihull

Just glancing at the list above without checking - Harrow, Brent, Croydon, Ealing, Walsall, Enfield, Barnet, Solihull and Watford all have sizeable ethnic minority communities even if they don't resemble inner London.

Walsall and Solihull are whiter than England as a whole.

The others you list are all London boroughs (ok Watford is technically not London, but it's a long way inside the M25, and it's on the Underground)

In general ethnic minority populations will bring the raw death rate down, because they are very much younger than the white population. Being in London is the biggest risk factor for having died so far.

Reported death rate of nearly 1 in 500 among British Jews

• do we have an age breakdown there and how many cases etc ?

That community seems to have been very hard hit indeed and I hope that there are scientists beavering away on a study

Roundup from Jewish communities around the world, but few hard stats

www.timesofisrael.com/update-how-covid-19-is-hitting-jewish-communities-around-the-world/

In Britain, at least 366 Jews have died, representing about 1.7% of all deaths in a country where Jews comprise just 0.3% of the population.

There are several theories for why the Jewish death rate is nearly six times higher than that of the general population,
including their disproportionate representation in the hot spot of London,
their relatively advanced age
and failure early on to practice social distancing in some ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods.
...
New York
According to city Health Department statistics, the Zip codes with the highest coronavirus infection rates track closely with the city’s Hasidic neighborhoods:
Borough Park, Williamsburg and Crown Heights, all in Brooklyn.

I don't think many Birmingham University or Birmingham City University students live in Solihull

Unless they live with their parents of course. Many Solihull residents (and Bromsgrove residents - also on your list) will probably work at Birmingham universities, Birmingham Airport and the NEC or simply travel from Birmingham Airport and visit shopping centres in Birmingham.

They also celebrated Purim (a Jewish religious holiday) in early March. There may have been quite large community/religious gatherings before lockdown? Churches and mosques have certainly been traced to outbreaks elsewhere.

Just to add, the false story on Newham above was also falsely reported on the the TV News.

Huw Edwards reads 'Newham has recorded the worst mortality rate in E&W according to official figures'

They continue, lying barefaced, 'covid-19 has preyed on Newham like nowhere else, a mixture of deprivation and ethnicity, allowing the disease to exploit the area's mainly black and Asian population'

They say 'the same community that has lived through this crisis is now charged with rebuilding Newham'. Isn't that a little melodramatic? 0.08% of the population have died. It's not exactly warzone conditions, is it?

I mean it would probably make sense to look at the number of people who have died of working age in each area, and try and compare things that way, on the basis that there might be some argument for saying that 50 deaths of working-age people should count more than 200 deaths of 90 year olds, but as far as I know no such statistics have been published.

And then old people are sort of inherently unhealthy just by age, so weight isn't so important There's a lot of confounding between "underlying health problems" and age. I've seen a lot of comments arguing "but a lot of these conditions are more frequently than the elderly" (with the implication it's all about age) and precious little evidence for that statement rather than the alternative "a lot of the elderly have these conditions, which is what is driving the death rate among the elderly". Is it being old that's the problem, or having an accumulation of health issues?

In Britain, at least 366 Jews have died, representing about 1.7% of all deaths in a country where Jews comprise just 0.3% of the population.

They are saying 458 now.

jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/coronavirus-related-death-toll-jumps-to-458-among-uk-jews/

Walsall and Solihull are whiter than England as a whole.

Partly based on the 2011 census (which is obviously out of date now) and 2017 school population -

"Walsall is a culturally diverse town where people of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi background form the largest minority ethnic groups." ... "In terms of children and young people aged 0-17, the proportion of pupils from minority ethnic groups has increased to 37.4% of all pupils living in the area from 36.7% in 2016 and 24% of Primary pupils have English as an additional language. (School Census, January 2017)."

www.walsallintelligence.org.uk/home/demographics/diversity/

Discussed on previous thread I think? V large ultra orthodox Jewish community in Gateshead.

www.haaretz.com/jewish/features/.premium-europe-s-last-great-yeshiva-town-finds-itself-at-a-crossroads-1.8660358

Its 8,000 Jewish residents – almost all ultra-Orthodox (or Haredi) – are concentrated in about a dozen streets in the Bensham neighborhood, huddled around Gateshead Talmudical College, aka Gateshead Yeshiva. The college is among the most prestigious in the Orthodox world, and the largest in Europe.

Solihull is not as diverse as Walsall, however;

"Age group analysis suggests that in 2019 BAME residents account for 15% of the Solihull population"...

"The Solihull school population is different to the resident population, as 23% of Solihull school pupils live outside the borough.This has an impact on the ethnic profile of pupils, with a quarter from a BAME background. Over the last 10 years an increasing proportion of Solihull children enrolling in a Reception class from a BAME background, providing an illustration of the borough’s increasing ethnic diversity."

I remember reading about when Covid first began to hit in Israel. The ultra Orthodox communities had higher infection and death rates because they were harder to reach with health info, less likely to social distance etc.

Even considering the parents & possibly GPs of school children,
there is typically still a v low % of BAME in the elderly population - which is where nearly 90% of the deaths are occurring

With age being such a dominant factor and so few under 45s dying,
the % of immigrants in schools won't be such a significant factor in the death stats

I know people like to whine about the Daily Mail, but their reporting on the paper about obesity, ethnicity, etc. is much better than The Times

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8341219/SAGE-file-claims-BAME-Britons-risk-coronavirus-higher-diabetes-rates.html

In particular they include an actual fucking link to the study

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886433/s0238-co-cin-report-ethnicity-outcomes-250420-sage29.pdf

more precise figures, actual sample sizes, etc.

I'm mildly amused to see 'sex at birth' as opposed to 'gender' in the study

It's noted that BAME people were overrepresented in hospitalisations, with 99.9%+ certainty with diabetes.

They were 99.9%+ certain less likely to have

chronic cardiac disease
chronic pulmonary disease
chronic kidney disease (except blacks)
chronic neurological disorder
cancer
Rheumatologic disorder
dementia

There was no difference with asthma.

So basically they were on the whole less likely to have any given illness, with the sole exception of diabetes.

When other risks were adjusted for, there was no link between deprivation and the chance of a hospitalised patient going to ICU. i.e. deprived people are in worse health, nor was there a statistically significant link between ethnicity and ICU admissions

Unfortunately they don't break out obesity into groups, as they find an 84% extra risk of ICU for obese patients, but this is not broken down between simple obesity and morbid obesity, as other studies have done. It is likely that the 84% is hiding a very large risk for morbid obesity, and a much smaller risk for say BMI 30-35

For death, obesity is much less important, at only 29% extra risk, and 11% for diabetes.

To answer @MereDintofPandiculation they find an adjusted risk of 4x for age 50-69, 9x 70-79, and 12x for 80+

It is completely absolutely certain with no possible doubt whatsoever that age is a risk factor on its own. This cannot possibly be denied.

It is THE most important risk factor. Nothing else comes even close.

"It is completely absolutely certain with no possible doubt whatsoever that age is a risk factor on its own. This cannot possibly be denied."

Absolutely

We need to keep reminding people on all threads that age is vastly more important than comorbities, ethnicity, even jobs

especially those MNers who seem terrified because they or their child has asthma, obesity, diabetes etc - the young are still at v v low risk.
There are comparatively few people who actually need to keep their kids off school, as distinct from want to.

Partly based on the 2011 census (which is obviously out of date now) and 2017 school population -

Hmm, it seems Wikipedia had the 2001 numbers for Walsall. So Walsall was 78.8% white vs. 85.5% for England. Solihull was 89.1%

Still, the school population and new immigrants since 2011 would have no impact on the covid-19 deaths, as they will be too young to be at risk

What is important is not the occasional death of a morbidly obese younger person,
but the total number of say under 45s dying

Even looking at the deaths in the under 60s,

even a higher proportion of BAME deaths could not significantly distort the total deaths in the Uk or its regions