Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

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Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

That was the Oxford abstract, not the ONS.

@1forsorrow as mentioned we don't really know for sure that black people are at greater risk because they are black, although it does seem likely at this point.

If your children are not adults, then the fact that they are children is going to make them of very very low risk regardless of any other factor.

The ONS classifies mixed as

'White and Black Caribbean; White and Asian; White and Black African; Other Mixed'

which doesn't make a lot of sense as you wouldn't necessarily expect a white/Thai mix to have the same risk as white/African mix, in that we don't have very strong evidence for extra inherent risk except for black people.

Some people have been theorizing that it's about vitamin D with darker skin producing less, but I don't know if that is accurate, but certainly there seems to be a specific risk for 'black' as opposed to brown as in the average 'Asian' (in UK classification, most likely from certain racial backgrounds within the Indian subcontinent, and not even necessarily darker skinned toned subcontinentals on average ). If that's true then you'd expect mixed-black & white to be doing better than black.

The ONS suggests NO extra risk from being mixed race as opposed to being white, once you take into consideration the location of mixed race people, etc. (i.e. less likely to be in rural areas, more likely to be in cities)

www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc815/hazards/all-factors/index.html

You'd really need to break that down by group of 'mixed', in particular you'd likely look to separate 'white/black' mixes from all other mixed, since the initial hypothesis is that black people have an inherently greater risk. However the total number of 'mixed' deaths is quite small, so you might find it hard to draw many conclusions.

Also as in your case, 'mixed' is difficult as in for example it might be that part-black mixed people are more likely to have a smaller non-white % than certain other groups, yet still identify or be identified as 'mixed', while perhaps other people who are in fact mixed race (everyone is to some extent) may identify as white. You wouldn't expect if there is extra risk from being say 1/2 black African, for that same risk to apply if you are 1/4 black African....

Clavinova there are few UK papers that print news, as distinct from scandal, dross or what suits their proprietors' business interests & politial bias.

The Guardian is one of the few that has some chunks of actual news, alongside opinion pieces.
Hence mentions of it, the FT, the Economist

All of the above sources have commented on the high excess deaths that the UK has

The ONS confirmed that there were more than 50,000 excess deaths in the UK, compared to previous years, for the COVID period up to the week ending 1 May

If you doubt veracity of papers, then total deaths are comparatively easy to just go to the source and check their data

e.g. ONS raw data in the UK, the German stats bureau ... every country in Europe will have one

"without commenting on the number of medical workers infected with COVID-19 in Germany."

I've explained the obvious:
that would be due to the intensive testing of medical staff in Germany

If there were genuinely a high % of cases, then there would be more than 18 deaths

• which is lower than in the average population, for that age group So PPE does not seem a problem wrt infections

Probably most cases are found,
whereas in the general population - in every country - only a small % are.

iforsorrow As Shoots said, if your children are not adults, then their risk is v v tiny.
Even under 30 age group has v few deaths for any ethnicity.

Age is absolutely dominant as a risk factor

Has anyone got a source for finding the daily death rate other than the dept of health and social care who seem to announce it later than everyone else?

Some people have been theorizing that it's about vitamin D with darker skin producing less

There is certainly a casual relationship between obesity and low levels of vitamin D. Unfortunately many of the younger healthcare workers who died were noticeably overweight/obese. Ethnic minority groups might also be over represented in night shift work - healthcare, night security etc. - receiving less exposure to sunlight during the day.

journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001383

www.gosh.nhs.uk/news/latest-press-releases/2013-press-release-archive/obesity-leads-vitamin-d-deficiency

The authors of that Oxford working paper have produced anothe

It looks a specifically English problem - the other 3 Uk nations are more as the European norm-
but even those 3 should be lower, more like other small European countries with low population density

Measuring excess mortality: England is the European outlier in the Covid-19 pandemic

https://voxeu.org/article/excess-mortality-england-european-outlier-covid-19-pandemic

"According to EuroMOMO, which tracks excess mortality for 24 European states, England had the highest peak weekly excess mortality in total, for the over-65s, and, most strikingly, for the 15-64 age group. "
....
England eclipses all 24 countries covered by EuroMOMO in excess mortality scores.
....
The ONS records 21,182 registered deaths for the comparable week compared to a normal number of 9787 (averaging the previous five years).6
.....
This gives excess registered deaths of 11,395, and a P-score of 1.164.

For the same week, the ONS registered 8335 deaths as Covid-19-related, accounting for 73% of excess deaths.
Data on actual deaths, reported by The Economist, give a peak P-score of 1.134.

England’s peak rate of excess deaths for the most vulnerable age group, the over-65s, is also the highest ....
.....
Italy initially dominated the headlines for Covid-19-related deaths but ranked fourth for peak excess mortality figures for the over-65s, below Spain and Belgium.
In contrast, Germany, throughout the nine weeks in Figure 1 showed excess mortality well within the -2, +2 normal range.7

As a spot-check, P-scores were calculated from actual deaths and normal deaths, reported by The Economist.
Peak P and Z scores are compared in Table 3.
Within Europe, the rankings almost coincide.8

It's not a matter of political finger-pointing:

The COVID crisis looks like continuing for a couple of years
the Uk authorities need to quickly analyse what went wrong - and what can be fixed asap

BigChocFrenzy
All of the above sources have commented on the high excess deaths that the UK has.The ONS confirmed that there were more than 50,000 excess deaths in the UK, compared to previous years, for the COVID period up to the week ending 1 May.

You haven't really answered my original query regarding comparisons with other countries - particularly France. For thread number 8 of daily numbers, graphs and analysis I assumed there would be a passing interest on here but we are going round in circles.

We can only compare via the available standards
or go into the raw data for the UK and France total deaths, then do some plots

I'm not sure what else you want

According to EuroMOMO, which tracks excess mortality for 24 European states, England had the highest peak weekly excess mortality in total, for the over-65s, and, most strikingly, for the 15-64 age group.^

Not sure 'peak week excess mortality by week of registration' is the best measure. Nor do I find it striking that if 65+s have the highest peak, that every other group would also be peak

The relevant measure should be excess mortality to a certain date, perhaps considering the start date for excess deaths

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves thanks for that. They are adults, one a nurse one a teacher. It is all very complicated isn't it, one of them looks much more obviously mixed race than the other with darker skin. I have suggested taking vitamin D just in case that is a factor.

More of a worry with DH really as he is quite dark, is over 70, is overweight and has diabetes. He thinks it was specially designed to get him.

What excess deaths are ons showing by age group in uk?
As looking at below we lost a lot more younger people than other countries?

Given that any vulnerability to Covid will be some sort immune system factor, it would be simplistic to assume all ‘black’ or whatever group have homogeneous makeup. Mixed race just takes the random mix a step further.

Well 'black' may be just as homogenous as a risk factor as 'being 60'. It doesn't mean everyone has the same risk, but it implies some extra risk for the population as a whole.

% age groups infected

Modelling very different things, but age differences in infection rate or not ?

Modelling by PHE and Uni^ Cambridge's MRC Biostatistics Unit^
calculated there are considerable differences in total % infected of different ages:

8% for age

Of course, someone who plans ahead may choose not to inform their doctor of symptoms and hence avoid ever having any test
but no system is 100% and this does at least reduce the number of known infected roaming around.

Unfortunately I’d fear those who intended to break the rules, or even worried about having to adhere to them, would do exactly that, and not get tested and spread it accordingly.

In the FT graphs the excess deaths are represented by the are under the peak. The country with the highest increase in excess deaths is Belgium, followed by UK. Belgium has 66% increase. Italy is not far behind. Looking at peaks is not indicative of the actual total figures. Again a media device to sensationalise, although I suppose the average FT subscriber is likely to understand statistical data.

*area not are

Are there any stats that breakdown deaths by specific age rather than age group! I see a lot with age ranges but then can’t seem to break those down. For example of the 50-65 bracket; how many of those were 50 or 51 for example?

The CDC has now confirmed link between Covid 19 & the new multi-inflammatory syndrome in children.

Looking at the height and breadth of the peaks - i.e. area - in the FT charts gives a good idea of the excess deaths
"look at the peaks" is obvious shorthand for this

The EUROMOMO tables have been going for years before COVID and are another international measure that enables comparisons

The ONS have stated there were over 50,000 excess deaths compared to normal
They have posted on Twitter about several record weeks for total deaths, about COVID being the #1 cause of death in those weeks

None of these are sensationalising
The UK has done very badly compared to most other developed countries, but is not the absolute worst in the world.

The most irresponsible media reports were the tabloid headlines about that Manchester study claiming a ridiculously high % of Brits had been infected
That may have made some people either very frightened, or believe that herd immunity is imminent.

see99 Nothing for specific age, but there were some tables - ONS ? - for 5 year intervals

Attached are charts of risk for different ages, male & female IFF you actually catch it

v v tiny risk for kids - the widespread anxiety about sending them back to school is baffling
From age 45+ it about doubles your risk of death within a year - that's a low risk at 45, much higher at 90.

However, with a low infection rate, most people - except maybe in care homes - have a low risk of catching it, despite the doomsayers

So you multiply the 2 risks together, to get a really small risk of death for most people, except the v elderly

Thanks for all your posts. I've been following these threads from the start

Can I ask a question. What is happening with the ONS? interactive postcode map (the one with the green circles). Why hasn't it ever been updated?

I think that's going to be weekly?