Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Bigchoc your graph at 2.30pm shows why others areas of the uk have decided to extend lockdown. Their reductions are much lower and Wales seems to have gone up and down a few times.

Neuro if I read the table you've posted it appears chronic neurological condition seems to have a much lower risk than say kidney disease? My ds has HSP and it's a rare condition as it is but it means I treat him as clinically vulnerable because it's neuromuscular.

I don't know if this is relevant liking but there's a huge Ultra Orthodox Jew community of around 8000 in Gateshead. When I was double checking the numbers this article popped up actually describing the festival this year with photos. Not sure if it's relevant again but Gateshead are currently top of the table for cases per 100k.

Sorry to hear that Its, yes that's how I read it; obviously asthma is a surprise too. However I do wonder if the illness can still be potentially very challenging for those groups? eg pregnancy where your immune system is a bit different anyway, and asthma etc, even if not as much a risk of death. I certainly fear all resp viruses as even though I don't ever end up in hospital, they're v challenging from an asthmatic pov.

The thing about diabetes is it covers both types; obviously obesity can be an additional factor especially in type 2. Badly controlled diabetes does leave you vulnerable to many issues too. In the article a pp posted about this data it mentioned they're trying to unravel the diff went data within that group.

I'm sorry I can't keep up with the links and attachments. Is asthma a surprise because it's more or less than previously expected?

Well if my ds catches an illness he tends to drop his temperature to little above 35°! He actually had 3 days of being wiped with temp of 35° not long before a had proper covid symptoms and temp of 38.5. His is not respiratory in nature. It's a degenerative condition of the axons of the spine causing increasing paraplegia. He's probably less at risk in the fact he currently is still ambulant and being in wheelchair (especially wheelchair dependent) does increase risk of neurological respiratory distress. (Which you prob are familiar with like me working in special ed!)

it'sgettingweird Wales had almost 50% positives from tests for a while
So they were testing v little and / or had a high rate of infection

Yes, Shoots It's difficult to find a single chart that sums up even 1 aspect;
We should always consider all the data

There has been a fixation on number of tests - partly because of Hancock's over-ambitious promises - and I was struck by NZ's ratio & general performance in this crisis

Ideally, we'd have a bar chart of # tests, say total per week, with colour red superimposed on each test bar to represent the number of positives

Oh bless him its, I'm so sorry to hear that. most of our pupils are autistic so I'm not as familiar with physical conditions; we have had a couple of pupils who react badly if the temp changes in the past though . I imagine they must include all conditions that can be affected by viruses, apart from anything you never know if a particular virus tips the balance badly in that individual so to speak.

Asthma can suddenly deteriorate in people who have otherwise mild issues and I know they've reported on lung damage in healthy people. Maggie I don't know how diabetes normally compares on resp conditions but I think the high risk rate is the surprise at 26 % compared to 7% for asthma.

So he had COVID its? that must have been stressful for you all.

Had this been posted? Accidentally stumbled on it via another website, not what link suppose to be but thought it was interesting for this thread!

www.gov.uk/government/news/weekly-covid-19-surveillance-report-published

Latest update
The latest Public Health England COVID-19 epidemiology surveillance summary published today, Thursday 14 May 2020.
The report includes data from a variety of different sources: community, primary care, secondary care, virology and mortality surveillance data. Combined these sources show a wider community picture including a breakdown by age, gender, ethnicity and geography which will help plan the national response to the pandemic and assist regional stakeholders in local planning.
The surveillance summaryy is available here and each week’s report is accompanied by an infographicc.
You can see a fuller explanation of some of the data sources and how and why we carry out this surveillance in our blogg_.

@NeurotrashWarrior, yes I wondered this about Gateshead too. It's so unfortunate that this Festival occurred before lockdown. There would have been a good couple of weeks communal preparation at the end of February. By the weekend following the festival there was a real change of mood. I attended a Jewish Funeral and although not limited in numbers, the Rabbi would only ok if we complied with social distancing.

The festival is a great sight to see; I stumbled across it once when living nearby and hadn't known about it before.

That's useful, Neurotrash

The age charts reminds us again how rarely the under-20 age group catch COVID - or to be exact how rarely they have symptoms that warrant a test

The 20-29 age group increases noticeably in cases, even though there prognosis remains v good

Females until age 60 seem to have a slightly higher rate of testing positive

• maybe not just because of their predominance in the caring professions, because this is also the case for teens (although with the small numbers for teens, this may not be statistically significant)

The info graphic is fabulous! Is it this funky colour because of my phone settings?! Are they envisaging late night perusal?!

missing the key point

Sorry, v distracted by the bright colours...

or to be exact how rarely they have symptoms that warrant a test

that's what I'm mainly wondering about Big. And that's quite important from an infection rate POV.

Returning to that study by the Spanish health ministry upthread, that found only 5% of the population had antibodies:

5% is about 2.3 million
27,000 official dead ==> that's a death rate of nearly 1.2%

(and the total "excess deaths" would be much higher than 27k)

Neuro my ds is also autistic! My dad calls him his mini Sheldon

Neuro no idea. He was very tired with low temp for few days which I sign of virus in him. Didn't really think about it even when I developed symptoms after that typical of Covid until a few weeks later. I hadn't thought he could have been a carrier and asymtomatic until a few weeks after I recovered and I discovered the area his school is in had some of the first reported and confirmed by test cases in my area. Not local catchment school as he had an EHCP.
This is the problem with no tests. There is no way of knowing and he always gets like that with any virus.
Although it wasn't as bad as the time his temp dropped to 33.2°

Aw is he a mini sheldon? We have a few. I love chatting about random sciencey stuff; esp when they know more than me!

It's encouraging that he may have had it less badly than you (?) but yes, the lack of testing has been the biggest issue from the start.

BMJ article about children and school

@123bananas

The only problem with that article (well, not the only problem, but the one I am focused on right now...) is that current community testing in the UK has indicated that the same proportion of children are infected as adults - so their contention that children don't catch it doesn't appear to be true according - it appears instead that they are "silent carriers".

Have you seen this in the Mirror? From an institute in University of Washington. Predicts that the first day the UK will see no deaths from CV19 will be July 30th. I'm surprised it's so soon.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/study-predicts-exact-day-uk-22027077

I'm cautious about the IHME models for the summer period, because right from the start they have predicted zero cases in summer - for all countries.

I gather IHME - like Imperial - are using models based on flu epidemics, which is very seasonal.
We've no evidence COVID is

So I wonder if they've tweaked the model sufficiently to be a Coronavirues one, rather than a super-flu model

This graph is for active cases, i.e. not dead, not recovered.

Active still increasing: UK, US, Russia, India, Brazil.

Concerning: Iran has growth in active cases after earlier decline.

So, headline suggesting over 25% in U.K. have had it? Something about a University of Manchester study? How does this stand up against scrutiny? Particularly in light of 5% in both Spain and France? Can it be right?

Has anyone got any data on the diabetes figures separated for type 1 and type 2? I have a Type 1 child who is also asthmatic. I am assuming the majority of deaths with diabetes refer to type 2 in older people? Or is there now evidence of a Type 1 deaths being a concern?