Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

If the r(t) is half the rest of the country, I doubt it is all explained by Londoners being more compliant.

I do think it is a combination of acquired immunity and care home transmissions. The latter may be a very significant differentiating factor between regions and will inflate R0 outside of London.

As per my post of Tuesday: if 10 % showing antibodies before lockdown then those 10% were infectious 2 weeks before lockdown on average ( or more depending on how long to produce antibodies) which means they would have been passing it on for a week or so, as would the people they infected, for two weeks after lockdown, so basically another 4 weeks of transmission before the rate slowed due to lockdown. Gives a much higher figure than the cumulative 10% basing it on exponential growth.

Also (again as per Tuesday) although herd immunity is given at approx 70% for Sars-corona, this is for vaccinations to work when evenly spread throughout a population. Research indicates (on the MCRIVs website) that disease mediated herd immunity needs a lower percentage as it works on the exposed pockets or lower hanging fruits as you have just called them.

I can't read it Larry but I'm in the NE and there's an issue currently south of the Tyne. It's certainly showing up on maps as a hot spot at the mo.

Dh's opinion is a mix of very close deprived communities and a laissez faire attitude, which I think I do agree with knowing the area well.

Certainly youths spitting on people in Newcastle city centre was a big issue just before lock down and a rise is racial incidents against the Chinese community.

It wanted me to subscribe larrygrylls but I could see it on the Apple news link.

So the vast majority of the country is over 0.7!

NE were also behind the initial numbers and we were told right at the start of lockdown at a hospital visit that they'd expected the peak in the NE to be later, around now actually.

It does feel odd that we are considering opening schools when we have far more hospital cases than Scotland

Neurotrash- that's interesting because if the decrease is because of lockdown then we'd expect everyone to peak at around the same time. There must be some herd effect because the R is lower in the early hotspots.

They've lumped Yorkshire and the NE together, but friends in Leeds hospitals and ITUs report a big drop in admissions and empty beds. But again cases rose in the urban areas of West Yorks before in East/North Yorkshire and the NE

Yes, it would be interesting to see separate graphs for different areas Cathy.

Yes this was said to us month ago and it occurred to me later that we'd all "peak" together - though I think it's clear it spread very quickly in London earlier and they had a bigger peak. Lockdown had a big impact there. Yes "herd immunity" is a possible factor? I suppose we won't know till mass antibody testing. Certainly London friends all think they've had it.

Very clunky data analysis (and it surely must exist somewhere!) but comparing Gateshead and Sunderland with Newcastle central is interesting today:

Middlesbrough is 31% death rate

This is the first time I've clicked onto one of these threads, hasn't realised they were started by the delightful Barracker

What have I missed?!
I tried to keep up with death numbers etc initially but found it too frustrating to try and mentally account for what they did/ didn't show. Anything to give numbers in context is welcome!

Randomly comparing other areas in the Ne and Y, and Sunderland and Middlesbrough are a much higher rate of infection to the rest.

Quarantino, youve missed some spectacular volcano graphs! 🌋

Im sure there will be a new one soon

Is that hotspot of Middlesbrough the same Middlesbrough with the highest level of lockdown none compliance in the country?

I think there's only one Middlesbrough?! Yes I know compliance has been an issue and in Sunderland.

Middlesbrough showed that 25 per cent of people with symptoms have left the house. Around 18 per cent of people in Hertfordshire and Burnley have done the same

Yes, interesting comparing historical data on compliance with current infection data

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-lockdown-heat-map-evergreen-health-a4407621.html

Though a week later they'd clearly got a bit worried

Middlesbrough, which last weekend was the area on the app where people were most likely to flout the stay at home rules, saw the number of respondents who admitted they were not complying drop from 25% to 13%.

www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/04/12/people-sticking-more-closely-to-social-distancing-rules-app-suggests/

That wiley article is yet another estimation, using the death rate etc

We need to see studies using blood samples taken by professionals

• and those samples need to be a representative sample of the population in a town, or prefereably across the country

"it occurred to me later that we'd all "peak" together"

I'm not surprised if different regions have different curves

A "national" epidemic is the combination of all the local epidemics in the country
They might have earlier / later starting points, steeper early gradients if higher international links etc hence peaks could be at different times

London with its international connections is where one would expect an early epidemic to take off, then maybe come down earlier

There are so many differences between populations:
cities / rural, age demographics, state of health, degree of compliance etc

representative sample of the population in a town

World at 1 on R4 said that Norwich are hoping to do this.

We saw this from the FT graphs on hospital admissions & numbers around the country

• they had different timing e.g. at end April:

I'm looking for the Spanish paper ...

John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted zeynep tufekci @zeynep

Today both France and Spain (two badly hit countries) have come out with seroprevalence numbers.
(France is a model, paper linked below. Spain was representative sample/survey of 60K;I don't have the paper yet).

Both are ~5 percent. If that holds up, that is very very bad news.

Henrik Salje@hsalje

Despite 20,000+ COVID19 deaths, we find only ~5% of France infected.

The lockdown, eased on Monday, reduced transmission by 80%, however R still close to 1 (~0.7) with 3-6k daily infections,
leaving little room for post-lockdown increases

ScienceMagazine https://bit.ly/2zzLKJX

Abstract

France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17 March 2020.
Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity.

We find 3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.7% die,
ranging from 0.001% in those 80ya.
.....
The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction)

By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7) people,
or 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the population, will have been infected.

Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.