Remember November 2018?

[LilacTree1]

No, neither do I.

Well, I remember the story but I think I only heard it once because dad was still alive and working for the NHS.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html

Bump

Someone must remember this?

Yes I remember it. I have flu vaccine every year, occupational and health reasons. There was a massive shortage and had to wait for ages until stocks came in.

Oh yes, now you’ve said it, I remember the vaccine being late too.

But we didn’t have daily briefings and it didn’t become illegal to go out for most reasons.

If you look at this ears flu figures they are very low. Mild winter and effective vaccine. Unless you follow ONS (I’m a healthcare stats geek and frequently wander off topic on ONS sight) you may be unaware of the variation from year to year.
Another interesting area is birth stats. There was a massive peak of births in the five years after WW2 ended which also coincided with the advent of the NHS. This group of people are all in there mid 70s having enjoyed the benefits of a free healthcare system for their whole lives.
Considering that when they were born average life expectancy for them was around 60 they are the evidence of how successful the NHS experiment has been!
A decade later (1967 to be precise) contraceptive pill was made available to all women not just married women. The birth rate plummeted and has remained fairly constant since.

So your reasoning is that coronavirus is no more contagious than the flu? Despite the fact that we may well reach 50,000 deaths EVEN WITH A LOCKDOWN OF SEVERAL WEEKS? So if we hadn’t had a lockdown how many deaths do you think we would have had? The same number?

And my capitals were deliberate because although I don’t tend to have too many strong opinions about things, I can’t deal with people not having a logical argument.

Yes, I’m considered to be high risk so in theory I should be interested in the year on year.

A mild winter is always such a help.

I didn’t think of the peak of births coinciding with the creation of the NHS, that’s very interesting.

MrsFezzi,

No, I’m wondering why one illness with a high death rate in that year, didn’t cause daily press conferences etc. Lots of have the flu vaccine because of our underlying health issues and it wasn’t really considered an issue that our risk was so high.

Also, MrsFezzi, London is considered to have passed peak pre lockdown.

@MrsFezziwig I can’t deal with people not having a logical argument. If they don't agree with you or say something you don't like, is their argument always illogical? I think a big issue is that a lot of people don't think generally about the daily deaths that happen. Therefore seeing 'death lists' can be eye-opening.

The LSHTM have this report

www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2020/peak-covid-19-deaths-occurring-english-hospitals-passed-8-april

Obviously those interested in data will know that the Lancet and BMJ have made covid information accessible to all.

The LSHTM are using NHS data which is obviously a lot different than the figures we get at the press briefings.

The media are only interested in sensationalising the current situation. I have had to stop watching BBC breakfast when Naga is on, can’t stand her at the best of times ( she’s on the wrong side of the IQ bell curve) but recently she has had a manic wide eyed look permanently.
It has amazed me how out of touch mnetters are when it comes to death rates and causes.
I agree nobody seemed to care much when excess deaths were just flu. However they are now up in arms when the experts are saying that for most people Covid will be like flu.
This pandemic has confirmed to me that mumsnet really is full of worried well (top level hypochondriacs or as they prefer it to be known health anxiety) and the armchair scientists. Oh and the chronic anecdotalists.

50,000 extra deaths in 2018! I had not realised it was that high. How does that compare to this year with covid I wonder in terms of deaths.

Just shows how deadly flu can be doesn't it. Especially to the young...my Dc had pneumonia from it very badly and was on oxygen and i was taken with how many young children had that and bronchiolitis in the children's wards in general in the winter, quite an eye opener.

I have read that this years mild winter and mild flu season spared many older people who have then go on to die from covid instead, sadly.

I don’t watch TV, just the press briefings to get an idea of what the government are thinking.

I like to look at stats from medical organisations or it all becomes a nonsense really.

Orange “ 50,000 extra deaths in 2018! I had not realised it was that high. ”

I mentioned it on the main covid thread a couple of weeks ago and got told I was lying!

More here, says children were pretty badly affected www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jan/25/three-times-more-people-dying-from-flu-in-uk-than-last-winter

The flu jab is not very accurate some years is it.

Yes, sadly it's not a lie. Sorry to hear you were told that.

Fortunately I also use more scientific forums where much of the data is readily available and the contributors are not anonymous so credentials are obvious.
I have been following the LSHTM site and it is interesting how the data is developing.
I firmly believe that a reliable antibody test will be the short term answer, particularly for HCP who are unable to work currently due to aerosol generating procedure restrictions.
Unfortunately we will have to get used to an elevated excess death rate over the coming months. Hopefully the press can see a way to sensible, accurate reporting of advice to vulnerable individuals who can decide for themselves what risks they are willing to take until a vaccine is produced.
Lockdown is not the solution. It merely puts a temporary plaster on it.

I wonder why (some) people get so defensive over discussing the flu and covid. OK it is not the same but it does both cause high mortality in vulnerable groups and is similar in how it is passed on (droplets coughs and sneezes) is it because 'flu' sounds like a common less scary illness perhaps It's not in many cases. Maybe we need more awareness of how severe influenza can be.

We have been vaccinating against flu since the late 1950s so flu hasn’t killed large swathes of the population for many years. Without the vaccine many of the Covid-19 victims would not have been around to die of Covid. Perhaps worth thinking about.
In developing countries where rates of mortality are much higher and average age is much lower the Covid mortality rates are much lower.
It is like flu it is a killer of the old and vulnerable. The difference is that we artificially suppress flu mortality rates.

Oral, no, but it clearly killed a huge number in 2018.

The other thing that has come as a surprise to me on here - posters dismissing my experience of ICU with pneumonia as it can’t be as terrible as Covid. Then I get “covid damages your lungs forever” as if my lungs aren’t damaged forever.

This has made me realise how little people know about diseases.

I’ve always been very careful with handwashing and hygiene but some appear to have just discovered it. I hope they don’t drop it when there’s a vaccine. We could really reduce things like noro and even just the common cold - which can affect people like me very badly - if people keep up handwashing and don’t just agree to meet up when they’re streaming with cold.

Oral “ The difference is that we artificially suppress flu mortality rates.”

Oh dear - how do they do that?

@TitianaTitsling, no, of course I don’t think mine is the only logical argument (and I’m sure LilacTree1 can speak for themselves). I just feel that a comparison between numbers of deaths from flu (no lockdown) and numbers of deaths from CV (with lockdown) is an illogical comparison (unless you happen to be one of those people who think lockdown has had no effect on numbers of deaths at all, in which case it’s perfectly logical).

Lilac was the peak not reached on 8th April? In which case the peak of contracting the disease would coincide (very approximately) with the pre-lockdown social distancing measures (including schools closure about 20th March) followed by the lockdown? So if none of those measures had been put in place then would the number of cases/deaths not have continued to rise exponentially?

The flu vaccine only covers some strains and every year it misses some. So it is not as simple as saying we vaccinate against it every year. Very year they make a best guess at which strains might be prevalent. So it's not that simple...