Remember November 2018?

[LilacTree1]

No, neither do I.

Well, I remember the story but I think I only heard it once because dad was still alive and working for the NHS.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html

If you look at the table on the right here it shows around 20-60% in the US in recent years, it varies quite a bit en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine

Much less affective in the elderly as well

"The group most vulnerable to non-pandemic flu, the elderly, benefits least from the vaccine. There are multiple reasons behind this steep decline in vaccine efficacy, the most common of which are the declining immunological function and frailty associated with advanced age.[54] In a non-pandemic year, a person in the United States aged 50–64 is nearly ten times more likely to die an influenza-associated death than a younger person, and a person over age 65 is over ten times more likely to die an influenza-associated death than the 50–64 age group.[55]"

MrsF, I will answer you but I’m on 4% battery....bear with....!

No worries - not like we’ve not got the time!....

“Oh yes, now you’ve said it, I remember the vaccine being late too.

But we didn’t have daily briefings and it didn’t become illegal to go out for most reasons.”

And you don’t see that you answered your own question? One has a vaccine that’s widely available, and that year there was a shortage/delay. The other has no vaccine.

Why are you being deliberately goady? Do you think you’re stirring up a discussion or just trying to stir up shit?

"Each year, three strains are chosen for selection in that year's flu vaccination by the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.[153] The chosen strains are the H1N1, H3N2, and Type-B strains thought most likely to cause significant human suffering in the coming season. Starting with the 2012–2013 Northern Hemisphere influenza season (coincident with the approval of quadrivalent influenza vaccines), the WHO has also recommended a 2nd B-strain for use in quadrivalent vaccines. The World Health Organization (WHO) coordinates the contents of the vaccine each year to contain the most likely strains of the virus to attack the next year.

"The WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network was established in 1952 [renamed "Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System" in 2011].[154] The network comprises four WHO Collaborating Centres (WHO CCs) and 112 institutions in 83 countries, which are recognized by WHO as WHO National Influenza Centres (NICs). These NICs collect specimens in their country, perform primary virus isolation and preliminary antigenic characterization. They ship newly isolated strains to WHO CCs for high level antigenic and genetic analysis, the result of which forms the basis for WHO recommendations on the composition of influenza vaccine for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere each year."[155]
The Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System's selection of viruses for the vaccine manufacturing process is based on its best estimate of which strains will predominate the next year, amounting in the end to well-informed but fallible guesswork.[156]"

So saying we have vaccinated for years and it has not killed lots of the population recently is basically wrong, sorry.

Why are you being deliberately goady? Do you think you’re stirring up a discussion or just trying to stir up shit?

Or trying to have a rational discussion. Doesn't seem possible on here though most of the time.

There is an amazing website with only a few but succinct graphs. The graphs on excess deaths from 24 participating European countries clearly show spikes every winter as it is flu season. It is updated every week. Highly recommended for any data geeks www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

But we didn’t have daily briefings and it didn’t become illegal to go out for most reasons

Probably because the flu isn't covid 19, and covid 19 isn't the flu. Or are you seriously spouting the bullshit that covid 19 isn't as bad as the flu?

So this report in November 2018 is saying that the vaccine from the previous winter didn't cover all flu strains and there were additional deaths.

I vaguely recall the bit about the vaccine not covering all flu strains.

The number of deaths each winter from flu is something I have only learned this year seeing deaths compared to CV and it has completely shocked me how many people die from flu each year.

OP is just trying to start a reasonable nuanced debate, I see no harm in that.

Thank you Mrs Nettle. Perhaps the OP should have a look at that link?

But in case she doesn’t have time... slight difference between 2018 winter and now?

Germany seems to publish its stats very late - no estimate for the 2018/2019 flu season, but 25,000 flu-related deaths estimated for the winter of 2017/2018 - which is interesting compared to their coronavirus statistics so far;

"30 Sept 2019 Report on the Epidemiology of Influenza in Germany 2018/2019"

"For the 2018/19 season, no estimate of excess-mortality could be made, as the necessary data of the Federal Statistical Office are published with a time delay. However, the estimate for the 2017/18 season (still lacking in the last annual report) has been supplemented: approximately 25,000 influenza-related deaths exemplify–together with other parameters–the extraordinary severity of the flu epidemic 2017/18."

www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html

@Orangeblossom78 I agree that it’s not possible to have a rational discussion with posters like OP, who post deliberately goady opinions like the one I quoted. What exactly did you find to be so rational about her statement attempting to compare a delay in vaccine availability in 2018 and the need for the current lockdown?

It is blindingly obvious that the main issue with Covid-19 is that we don’t have a vaccine for any strain (unlike flu) and that the final death toll has not been counted yet.

And flu has never been artificially suppressed by keeping people at home.

Perhaps wait for all the stats before brandishing any single set of data as ‘evidence’ that lockdown isn’t the right thing to do.

Hello from 20% battery!

MrsF - of course lockdown has an impact. Keep people away from each other, they will spread much less disease. It’s logical.

What I’m questioning is, when we are surrounded by infectious disease all the time, when the “vulnerable” like me get laughed at for cleaning door handles at work because I don’t fancy another stay in ICU, why has Covid suddenly got the public backing the most extraordinary - and damaging - measures? The flu vaccine doesn’t always work, nobody cares. If every death is a tragedy, why did no one give a shit before?

I admit freely, I think lockdown is wrong. I think quality of life is important, I think the economy pays for us to have an NHS, I’m high risk of losing my home, I’m high risk for suicide.

But I’m also highly anxious, inclined to panic attacks - and I see an infectious disease with a higher rate of infection than the ones I’ve been worried about since I was a child.

I really hope people learn from this pandemic. Basic hygiene and handwashing, better cleaning on public transport- note in the herd immunity phase the Mayor kept saying the Tube was getting extra cleans with better agents. We need to do this all the time if we really want to “Protect the vulnerable”.

And public service announcement- please, when there are empty seats on the bus, don’t go sit next to someone! Don’t take your snotty child to the cinema. Don’t act like there’s never been a serious virus around before. It’s ridiculous. The vulnerable walk around all the time, we’ve got to earn a living and have a life.

Common sense would have really helped - including closing the borders weeks ago. But that’s an argument I have with government, not MN.

Btw I’m hearing Spain don’t report care home deaths? And Germany, unlike us, require a positive test for the death to be declared as Covid.

I know someone will ask, so here’s the Patrick Vallance clip re declaring deaths as covid without a test.

twitter.com/TheRealRuncey/status/1259186379797532678

I was referring to vaccination as artificially suppressing the natural course of flu and any other disease for that matter. We forget that that there are many other diseases that have been all but eliminated by modern medicine. However as a result of extending life we are now seeing an increase in age related diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and dementia. Death is inevitable whichever way you look at it. And above all else statistics can be used to prove any opinion.
Lockdown is a decelerator. It’s likely that the same people will die regardless of medical intervention. There is no known cure at the moment. You can give oxygen and other drugs to assist recovery but essentially each patients recovery is reliant on their own immune response.

Oral “ Lockdown is a decelerator. ”

Yes, I’m still concerned at the obsession with the R rate. Of course infections will rise when people are able to mix more.

Prof Michael Levitt is working on a model that says it’s not an exponential, but I’ve learned to be terrified by the words “I’m a scientist and I’m working on a model”.

Lots of vulnerable folk get through life knowing life is a risk.

There’s a few situations in mum’s street where an older vulnerable person is the carer for an older vulnerable person.

As everyone’s been locked in, I’m now at lower risk than I was the day before lockdown - but not allowed any company. I will be allowed when everyone’s returned to work. If you like virus maths, I’ll be at much higher risk of catching it then.

@Clavinova You are STILL getting it wrong , you pillock:

Germany, the UK and USA uses a mathematical algorithm to estimate flu deaths from the excess deaths recorded that year

The actual flu deaths recorded for each country are very small, because flu is hidden

For England:
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment]]data/file/839350/SurveillanceeofinfluenzaaandotherrrespiratoryvirusessintheeUK20188to_2019-FINAL.pdf

Page 24 lists flu deaths as a few hundred annually over the last few years
and then

Page 51 lists estimated deaths for those samyears as up to nearly 30,000 via the FLUMOMO algorithm

and @Clavinova all countries are recording their COVID deaths, not estimating them by an algorithm

No you fool, you haven't discovered some dark German secret that the British government haven't noticed.

COVID deaths are recorded after a positive COVID test, no estimations required

BigChoc “ COVID deaths are recorded after a positive COVID test, no estimations required”

But as you can hear from Sir Patrick in my earlier post, the UK are recording deaths as Covid 19 without a positive test.

But not on the official daily stats, LilacTree. They have to have a positive test. On death certificates, yes, but their data is delayed by weeks and isn’t included on the official stats.

BigChocFrenzy
Clavinova You are STILL getting it wrong , you pillock

The actual flu deaths recorded for each country are very small, because flu is hidden

Yes, I know.

Germany, the UK and USA uses a mathematical algorithm to estimate flu deaths from the excess deaths recorded that year

It quite clearly says the word estimate 3 times in my link.

It quite clearly says the word estimate 3 times in my link.

And estimated as well.