Won’t there just be a second peak?

[Lockdowner13]

Have any countries experienced a second rise due to relaxing lockdown yet?

Surely it’s inevitable?

I’m only not getting it because apart from a weekly trip to Tesco by my husband and a few walks round the block, we barely leave the house or see anyone. When school, nursery, work, social interaction starts up, it will only be a matter of time before people get sick in larger numbers. This week I’ve had close contact with 4 people. Normally we have hundreds of contacts a week... school and nursery, work contacts, other family etc.

I can’t help but think this whole thing started a few months ago with just one person. We are at 1000s now. Restarting the upward trend is gonna be much easier!

Am I missing something? Isn’t it inevitable?

Very probably.
At this point it is just about trying to spread it out a bit so the NHS can cope.

It's definitely inevitable until we have 'herd immunity' or a vaccine.

Yes, it’s inevitable that cases will rise again.
It’s a question of balancing that rise against the huge damage being done by the lockdown.
The idea of lockdown was never to prevent further cases happening, it was to make sure they happened slowly enough that everyone who needed treatment could get it.

What else can we do? Can't all stay locked up until a vaccine it just wouldn't work

It's worth remembering that for most people, it will be a mild illness and not life threatening. Statistically if you're not in the vulnerable group or shielding, you are far more likely to come a cropper from your drive to the supermarket etc.

This lockdown has given the NHS the chance to increase capacity massively, whilst businesses and places people will need to be have had time to consider how they can reopen with social distancing measures in place.

A second wave is totally inevitable as at the moment community transmission is very low (as you would expect from us being locked down). But the scale of the second wave is not guaranteed to be as bad as the one we have just had, so I don't think it should be feared in the way many seem to be.

That is not to be flippant towards those who are more at risk. When the first wave hit we were massively on the back foot, this time the world is braced and knows a lot more about what we are dealing with

I agree with save Halloween. We know much more now.

The overall death rate is likely to be 0.05 percent. Viral load has a lot to do with how ill you get, so if you only come into contact with a small amount you’ll either be having no symptoms or think you’ve a mild cold. If you get a lot, you will be likely very ill.

So social distancing works. Because if you can keep close contact low you’ll not get much viral load, even if you are in contact with someone who has it. They think it even has to be as much as twenty mins on average to even catch it.

And even them it’s a fifty fifty, many people don’t get it. Hence why Charles did and Camilla didn’t.

So the places you get it, and will likely be very ill is close social contact for a prolonged period, cramped work spaces, social events etc.

This excludes the medically vulnerable, Ie those who have significant underlying health issues.

If we look at rhe stats, less that a hundred people under 65 have died who didn’t have underlying conditions. Three thousand in total below 65. Nearly all with underlying conditions. It’s a very small number. And those healthy people who became very ill and died had a high viral load. Ie they got a lot of the virus over several hours or more. It was too much for their bodies.

So this means, if you keep social distancing you will likely be fine even if you do get it, if you’re healthy. Because the viral load will be low.

If you need to be in close contact with someone for a prolonged period, then ppe will help, both you spreading it if you’re infected, or how much you catch if you’re not. If you spend hours being physically close with someone who has it, even if they don’t show symptoms, you could become very ill.

People really need to look at rhe stats, the age range impacted and understand what’s occurring.

Is a second peak inevitable. Likely yes, because people aren’t as smart as they should be sadly. They will not follow guidance and that will be the issue.

But we can’t lock down forever because of thick people

Lockdown is a once only deal, we need to learn to live with this from here on in. But remember second peaks will be sporadic, if we track and trace. In my area, positive tests are very low, so I would estimate our chances of catching it (if we adhere to hand washing, social distancing, avoid large gatherings) as pretty minimal.

Yes.
Do remember that testing is also becoming more accessible (at least it is here) to those who are going out into the workplace, so you are going to see numbers climb because of that as well. There are probably a lot of asymptomatic carriers out there.

And I think rather than "waves", we'll be seeing and using the words "hot spots" and "flare-ups", particularly in more densely populated parts of the country.

"If you need to be in close contact with someone for a prolonged period, then ppe will help, both you spreading it if you’re infected, or how much you catch if you’re not. If you spend hours being physically close with someone who has it, even if they don’t show symptoms, you could become very ill."

This is why we have to be very careful about when and how schools will take in more students than they are at present

Lockdown is a once only deal

I didn’t think this is the case. If cases rise too sharply, I think we will lockdown again.

This is why we have to be very careful about when and how schools will take in more students than they are at present

Not necessarily, it is starting to look more like children don’t spread it and the science is correct. Also if the adults who parent or live with those children practice social distancing from other adults it would be fine, they won’t spread it even if they do get it from their child, which is a low probability

In addition. Parents of school age children tend to be below 65. Where remember less than a hundred healthy people have died.

People with underlying health conditions are where the concern lies, and extremely so in older folks. People under sixty five have a very low fatality rate. And as said, scientists are now thinking children don’t spread it, as is being witnessed in countries whose schools are open. It’s the adults who do.

Unless a teacher or a parent has an underlying health condition they have little to nothing to fear.

Not necessarily, it is starting to look more like children don’t spread it and the science is correct.

Except for the other studies that say the opposite.

So many scientific and medical advisers on here that appear to think that they know so much better than the government...

Wondering why they're not the ones on the podiums at the Coronavirus updates each day....

Parents of school age children tend to be below 65. Where remember less than a hundred healthy people have died.

Don’t think this is an accurate figure? ONS says 12.7% of COVID deaths in March were in under 65s so would it not be likely to be at least 10% of the tens of thousands of deaths in the U.K. so far? So in low thousands.

That's why restrictions have to be eased very gradually and carefully. If the rate goes up the restrictions will have to come back. I think there will be some type of restriction until a vaccine or treatment is available

children don’t spread it and the science is correct.
If so why did the scientific advisor say yesterday that children do spread the virus and it would be dangerous for grandparents to hug them. Most (but not all) children get mild symptons if they have it but there is no evidence that proves they can't carry or spread it.

Some of the latest studies out of Germany are thinking that children do spread it.

Yes

Think back to the start of this horror

They wanted to “take bites out of the curve” so a level of cases the NHS can manage.

Lumene, you missed the part on healthy folks. It’s not all Covid deaths. We are saying rh same thing though.

But yes, total deaths for under 65s is about 3000 and less than a hundred of them had no significant underlying health conditions.

The data is there. You just need to take the time to read it. Ninety percent of deaths, or ok 88 percent of deaths, if you wish to be specific, were in over 65s.

And of those nearly all had significant underlying health conditions. Less than a hundred were healthy.

And as per your own stats, nearly 90 percent of deaths are in the over 65s.

The only bit you missed is how many of those under 65s had significant health issues.

You also to be fair missed the viral load point. Which is the healthy under 65s who sadly died had a high viral load, which means they were close to someone with the disease for a pro longed period. They didn’t just catch it from being on the tube, or In the supermarket. They were in close physical proximity for several hours at least.

Viral load is critical.

I don't understand how anyone can accurately state that children do not spread it.

We took children out of circulation by closing schools and putting in place social distancing.

Schools that are open are running at vastly reduced numbers with children separated as much as possible.

We also don't test children unless they present at hospital. We've only started increasing testing in the last 2 weeks and it's still not wide spread by any means. I will post the official list of who can be tested at the end of my comment but many children are ruled out, my child couldn't be tested as I am not a key worker and am able to work from home.

So we have no idea how many children have been infected or how many they have infected.

Who can be tested
Our priority is testing patients to inform their clinical diagnosis.
We are also testing:
• all essential workers including NHS and social care workers with symptoms (see the full list of essential workers)
• anyone over 65 with symptoms
• anyone with symptoms whose work cannot be done from home (for example, construction workers, shop workers, emergency plumbers and delivery drivers)
• anyone who has symptoms of coronavirus and lives with any of those identified above
Additionally, we are testing:
• social care workers and residents in care homes (with or without symptoms) both to investigate outbreaks and, following successful pilots, as part of a rolling programme to test all care homes
• NHS workers and patients without symptoms, in line with NHS England guidance
This means anyone in one of these groups can find out whether they have the virus. Testing is most effective within 3 days of symptoms developing.
Please note that these lists apply to England only. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own lists and criteria. See more information on:

No, a second wave is not inevitable and I am dismayed at the number of people who have just accepted that it is.

I am dismayed at the number of people who are prepared to accept this level of death when so much of it is preventable. I'm dismayed at the number of people who have rationalised to themselves that all these deaths are not so important because it's mostly old people or those with 'underlying conditions'.

I don't understand why everyone has decided lockdown is our only tool.

Lockdown is like a tournique for a severed leg artery. You can't leave it there for too long or the leg will go black and die. You can't just take it off, however slowly, and expect the bleeding to have just stopped on its own. You have to actually mend the leg.

We're just buying time.

We need to find, test and isolate everyone with symptoms. We need to trace all their contacts and quarantine them. This is the only strategy that has worked anywhere in the world so far, regardless of any lockdown measures.

We need to provide good, basic medical care to all who need it, not just those who need intensive care. We need to support everyone who needs to isolate or quarantine so they can do so in the most effective way, with their human rights and livelihood intact.

If we put these things in place we can start easing out of lockdown without an inevitable second wave.

We're not a low income country. We have the resources to do this. Is the will still there or has everyone just given up?

I'm dismayed at the number of people who have rationalised to themselves that all these deaths are not so important because it's mostly old people or those with 'underlying conditions'.

To be clear I am not just dismayed by these people I am disgusted by them and I think they are utter fucking scum.

I know this isn’t the point, but I LOVE the tourniquet analogy, I haven’t heard that before.

It's worth remembering that for most people, it will be a mild illness and not life threatening. Statistically if you're not in the vulnerable group or shielding, you are far more likely to come a cropper from your drive to the supermarket etc.

That’s what I used to say (and think) - until I looked at motor fatalities in the UK - which are a fraction of covid-19 deaths