Won’t there just be a second peak?

[Lockdowner13]

Have any countries experienced a second rise due to relaxing lockdown yet?

Surely it’s inevitable?

I’m only not getting it because apart from a weekly trip to Tesco by my husband and a few walks round the block, we barely leave the house or see anyone. When school, nursery, work, social interaction starts up, it will only be a matter of time before people get sick in larger numbers. This week I’ve had close contact with 4 people. Normally we have hundreds of contacts a week... school and nursery, work contacts, other family etc.

I can’t help but think this whole thing started a few months ago with just one person. We are at 1000s now. Restarting the upward trend is gonna be much easier!

Am I missing something? Isn’t it inevitable?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-r-number-rate-deaths-cases-nhs-a9504496.html?fbclid=IwAR2Qe9lonLxUCdAW9phvSMTGzPJuQbZ6mb_63MD4qoEybuoQMkcLWoPG0f8

Some evidence that R value is already increasing.

Says it all.

As a PP has stated, the idea was not to eradicate the virus... But to slow it down while we increase capacity in the NHS to deal with more cases... No one is really silly enough to think they built 6 new hospitals when they knew the peek was only a couple of weeks away... We will slowly be released to go back to normal and back to the herd imunuty theory.

To those who think herd immunity is crazy... Its either that or lockdown until a vacinne... If it was the latter many many more would die of other reasons...

Yes that’s the plan. Herd immunity is (unfortunately) the only game in town until a vaccine is available. We’ll peak and trough for the next year. Life must go on. Sensible social distancing (no football games, big parties, festivals etc), good hygiene and continued social isolation for the vulnerable is the only way. Those healthy enough must be allowed to crack on. Children need an education, are at minimal risk and are not in fact “superspreaders”. We’ve ridden the first peak, the NHS coped admirably, we have capacity - let’s get on with it.

To those who think herd immunity is crazy... Its either that or lockdown until a vacinne...

No.

Herd immunity is (unfortunately) the only game in town until a vaccine is available.

No.

To repeat my post from page 1:

I don't understand why everyone has decided lockdown is our only tool.

Lockdown is like a tourniquet for a severed leg artery. You can't leave it there for too long or the leg will go black and die. You can't just take it off, however slowly, and expect the bleeding to have just stopped on its own. You have to actually mend the leg.

We're just buying time.

We need to find, test and isolate everyone with symptoms. We need to trace all their contacts and quarantine them. This is the only strategy that has worked anywhere in the world so far, regardless of any lockdown measures.

We need to provide good, basic medical care to all who need it, not just those who need intensive care. We need to support everyone who needs to isolate or quarantine so they can do so in the most effective way, with their human rights and livelihood intact.

If we put these things in place we can start easing out of lockdown without an inevitable second wave.

We're not a low income country. We have the resources to do this. Is the will still there or has everyone just given up?

Did Spain not ease lockdown then had to declare a national emergency as it peaked again?
Or did I miss read?

There may be a second wave but I honestly don’t think they will lockdown again like the first time e.g. businesses closing again, staff being furloughed again as the government can’t afford it and businesses won’t survive the uncertainty. I think an approach similar to Germany should be the aim

@LangClegsInSpace
This is such a sensible post. I totally agree with you

Yes agree with Lang. I feel the country is just not prepared to start easing up lockdown. As a minimum we need full access to testing for anyone who needs it. And for a track test trace system to be in place. There is no sense to what they are doing at all other than they can’t be bothered locking down any longer. They had 8 weeks to get these systems in place and they haven’t done it

I think Lang is right re: testing and isolating.

The problems with herd immunity are:

1). Nobody actually knows if catching the virus confers any kind of immunity, or if it does how long that immunity would last

2. Nobody knows how many people would have to catch the virus in order for herd immunity to develop, but it's estimated that it might be 60-80%, which risks not just a lot of death, but also lots of people dealing with the long term consequences of the virus.