Have we lost faith in the Oxford vaccine trials?

[stuckindoors77]

Just wondering what's gone wrong with the trials in the Oxford vaccine (if anything) a week ago they were spread across the papers as the next best thing, now suddenly they've gone quiet. Matt Hancock is saying we may never find a vaccine at all whilst Today's papers are reporting that Italian scientists have found the first possible vaccine (it works in mice apparently!) so what aren't they telling us do you think?

No 'we' haven't lost faith. I believe there's also a potential in USA that's about at the same stage of trials.

You're not a scientist, are you, OP?

These things can take years. This one is being expadited.

They need to make sure
It works
With no immediate unacceptable side effects
It stays working
With no longer term side effects
The results can be replicated with larger scale production
They can produce it in sufficient quantity.

Obviously, there are other steps but there is much watching and waiting involved as well as meeting ethical standards, complying with legislation etc etc.

And much of this is too boring for the media to give a running commentary on.

lots of viruses don’t have vaccines (hiv, SARS, Mers)

The former is a retrovirus which makes production of a vaccine extremely difficult. However, excellent treatment options have been developed. The latter two mostly burnt themselves out so the search for a vaccine was called off.

oh I see @PaperbackRitur

You're not a scientist, are you, OP?

Well spotted, I'm not although I do understand that vaccines take a long time to develop and I don't expect a blow by blow account (since I'm not a scientist I wouldn't understand anyway!)

I simply wondered why the headlines were "first vaccine developed in Italy" and "we may never get a vaccine" when last week's were "first vaccine is being trialled in Oxford"

I promise faithfully to keep my idle musing much more scientifically based in future though

No 'we' haven't lost faith. I believe there's also a potential in USA that's about at the same stage of trials.

Happy days, I'm not choosy about where the vaccine comes from

I simply wondered why the headlines were "first vaccine developed in Italy" and "we may never get a vaccine" when last week's were "first vaccine is being trialled in Oxford"

Because "vaccine currently being trialled but way too early in the process to have any results either way but hopefully will do sometime soon" isn't any kind of reportable story.

Lost faith?

Bloody hell. I know I have posted a few times about the instantaneous expectations that internet and social media seem to induce but that has to be about the daftest version yet.

Less than a fortnight into a long medical research study and 'we' have apparently lost faith. In what I am not sure.

Lost faith that they really are working on it?

Lost faith that there is going to be any headway?

Lost faith in keeping faith?

Or just lost faith...

I suppose it could be down the back of the sofa, with lost change, a single sock and an oofer doofer you thought the dog ate!

I was in a web con yesterday looking at the virus, potential targets on the virus particle to direct an immune response that would be useful to block it, and correlating that with studies on patients who have dealt positively with SARS-CoV-2 and what antibodies they have made against it. All indications seem very positive that a vaccine will be helpful/protective.
Just depends on which projects are moved forward - there are a number, which are using different methods of design/delivery. There is a huge will across the board to prioritise getting a vaccine available as soon as possible. Be positive x

Oh, and I don't have specific knowledge about the Oxford project, although am aware of their approach (and did a stint in that department a number of years ago).

@CuriousaboutSamphire did you read my post? Or just the title? Suspect the latter but thanks for replying

For goodness sake. I got the nuance of your question. What a lot of unnecessary frothing from some.

I did read your OP and your follow up posts. The overriding context is that you think scientific research into this specific virus should happen more quickly and/or that once it stops being a headline it has been consigned to the bin.

Neither of which are true.

Both of which, no matter how much you say later, were your first words on the subject. It is the title of your post. Get it changed if you don't think it best reflects what you mean now. But it is what you started with... and it is bloody daft!

What nuance? The first li e is what went wrong and the second suggests that the failure is being hidden or ignored.

All that has happened is that a new vaccine has been begun and is now going through all the usual stages of research to see if it is valid, effective and safe.

The 'failure/hiding' is just a small amount of time has passed!

It's SM though. It is a bit daft. It's not peer reviewed. It's just people trying to make sense of a bizarre situation, and it is scary and uncertain, & media reporting has been/is pretty appalling.

On Panorama earlier this week they sounded very confident - I’m sure they said if it works they can scale up to a billion next year.

That would be true of any vaccine, wherever developed, I suspect. The only problem is how it will be shared... along commercial or philanthropical lines?

The 'failure/hiding' is just a small amount of time has passed!

You really missed the nuance.

@CuriousaboutSamphire right, we sort of seem to be on different threads.

Once more for luck.

I got up this morning and read in quick succession several articles about Italy being the first to discover a vaccine and then an article saying that we may never discover a vaccine. This seemed surprising to me after the headlines of last week saying that oxford university were starting human trials and feeling confident.

So I wondered if somehow they had fallen out of favour and were being quietly shelved or sidelined by the media.

It was something I was interested in and so asked a simple question.

Just re posted some of the parts where I explain that I wasn't expecting instant results.

I do think we should still be allowed to ask questions and wonder about things on Mumsnet even if they're a bit daft.

To clarify, I don't expect results in a week

just musing that's all.

Thanks, just to clarify, I wasn't expecting news any time soon and I haven't flown into a panic because they haven't declared it an instant success in a week... not that

Well spotted, I'm not although I do understand that vaccines take a long time to develop and I don't expect a blow by blow account

Well, the truth is it takes a lot longer to produce a vaccine than the media tried to spin, as some of us on here have been saying. But we were shouted down as naysayers and negative Nellie's.

We sing must be patient and wait for a vaccine. If will take time.

The mis-match between the two articles may be 1) a group in Italy are at a good stage to state they have developed a vaccine which will elicit antibodies against SARS-CoV-2
and 2) there is uncertainty over whether eliciting antibodies to the virus will be enough to give protection against infection/serious disease

Does that make sense?

I understood that! All of it.

Vaccine trials take a lot of time

Nothing has changed in a week

Nothing is being hidden.

Ah! Is this it, the bit you think I missed? And no, there is no backtracking, from "ooh a vaccine" to "we may never have one". BOTH are equally possible outcomes. We don't know yet.

But yes, it is entirely possible that a vaccine will never be found. Best case scenario they'll have one in a couple of years. That's why, whilst trials continue and various governments pay inordinate amounts of money into that research, they also have to plan as though there never will be one.

That's the much talked about R.

I understand the Oxford volunteers have all been vaccinated or had the placebo vaccination.

We now wait and we hope.

I haven't had the nerve to look for anything on the human trials the papers went to town on.

Whatever they find this early will be a disappointment!

Same reason the media flip flop on messaging and focus every day - to sell more, either papers or click bait.

It would seem talking about having the highest death rate, Neil Ferguson flouts his own guidance and speculation of a lockdown lift on Sunday is deemed more newsworthy this week.

It does, thanks @DoubleTweenQueen I guess we'll just wait and see how things pan out.