Is Matt Hancock being premature in saying we are at the peak?

[SansaSnark]

Matt Hancock said today quite clearly "we are at the peak". You can see a video here: news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-we-are-at-the-peak-of-covid-19-outbreak-matt-hancock-tells-mps-11977088

I can't see what he's basing this on, though.

If you look at the numbers of new cases here: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

They have gone down for the last two days, but this has happened before, and then cases have gone back up again. I know we are doing more testing than before, so might expect to find more cases, but there are still lots of people who can't access a test as well. 2-3 days of data doesn't seem to be enough to make this claim, and I think we could easily see a surge in cases soon, following Easter weekend.

The number of deaths has also gone down quite sharply for two days, but then gone back up- again this has happened before.

I think we really need more data to say "we are at the peak"- I think we will only really be able to see it in retrospect. Biological data is rarely truly linear or exponential- it's normal to have some variability day on day!

He did say that lockdown restrictions will need to continue- but he didn't really make it clear than when we relax lockdown, it's very likely we could have a second peak as well.

I'd love to hear what other people think.

He won't be basing it on 2-3 days of data. It will be on a rolling 7 day average, which will have been going down for much longer.

The consistent fall in hospital admissions will also give them the confidence to say this.

Also, the date recorded is not the same as the date the death happened, and when you look at charts showing the actual death date the April 8th peak is clear.

We hit the peak on 8/4, because that is when the biggest number of deaths was recorded. We're on a plateau now, with a slight downward trend.

If you join us on the data and stats threads the consensus is that we have peaked for now. Hospital admissions have flattened.

Remember that as the pillar 2 testing of NHS staff and key workers rolls out the number of cases identified will go up but that doesn’t have an impact on the number of serious cases requiring hospitalisation.
So we will probably see cases go up and hospitalisations go down simultaneously.

April 8th is pretty much now fact as the peak day of deaths reported, with delayed death reporting now having caught up. Lots and lots of graphs for you to peruse on BBC, Financial Times, John Hopkins or indeed all in one place:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3887149-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-6

Worldometers is not the best for factual representations.

Does the 8/4 peak include deaths in the community attributed to C19?

People on the daily numbers threads have been adding in the ONS weekly death figures as well and it all suggests the peak has happened.

Another government advisor said we had peaked days ago and thr evidence for hospital admissions has gone down and community deaths are catching up. So no hes not premature in saying that. We really have reached the peak.

We certainly appear to have plateau’d 🤷🏼‍♀️

The peak should be measured in terms of cases though, not deaths- according to WHO definitions, the peak is a phase, not an individual day. To say there was the highest number of deaths on an individual day so that's the peak is overly simplistic, and not necessarily helpful in terms of controlling the wider spread.

Death rates will vary due to all sorts of factors, and so aren't necessarily representative of the number of cases in the community. I accept that due to lack of testing, they are the only reliable data we have right now, but I think it's important to be wary of extrapolating widely from the number of deaths/serious cases as we know these vary widely due to demographic.

If what he means by "peak" is "day with the highest number of deaths" then fair enough, but to me that's an overly simplistic way of defining the peak, and not actually necessarily a useful measure.

The last 2 days figures were down as registration doesnt hapoen at the weekend

Do we know how many died in the last 24 hours in hospital ?

At the beginning of lock down a good outcome was considered the death toll stopping at 20k
That's not going to happen now , it'll be way over

I think we do seem to be at the peak now - however it's going to be a long and very drawn out one I think... same as Italy

In terms of the UK as a whole, he may be right. In terms of individual areas, I'm not so sure. Seems to me some places are just getting going.

I agree we've definitely plateaued, which is a good thing.

I think we're all using different definitions of peak, which doesn't help!
I agree we've probably seen the highest individual numbers on a particular day, assuming there isn't a second peak when we lift lockdown.

However, to me, saying we are past the peak implies we are in the "post-peak" phase. WHO defines this as "pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave."

I don't think we have enough data/surveillance to really confirm a sustained drop, and that numbers won't go up again towards the end of this week. I accept that others disagree, though.

@Porcupineinwaiting I definitely agree with that. I think London is cycling through this at a faster pace than the rest of the country, and some parts of the country definitely haven't peaked yet. However, if they all happen at different times, we could see the numbers going up and down for quite a long time yet!

Number of cases isn’t a good measure if the number of people being tested changes.

The sirens aren't stopping here, we are in a town in the NW and are seeing more cases everyday. We are a hot spot atm, hope it doesn't last long.
I know London is a lot better than it was with fewer cases, but they were always about 2 weeks in front of the north.

I agree that the data we have on number of cases at the moment is terrible, but that's what we need to know to designate something a peak.

@devlesko

I'm hearing ambulances daily too - it is all so sad.
I don't really understand the peak as such. I know about the lag and that the deaths will remain high, so I'm assuming the peak is after admissions have flattened for a while. But then, the care home situation is dire, and the data is really slow coming from them, so I just don't understand how Hancock can say this. Should have spent more attention in all those Maths lessons I zoned out of!

I can feel there’s a shift locally and that’s being played out on the roads. They are definitely busier. My self employed neighbours are back working. My other neighbours have people over. It feels like we’re just sliding out of lockdown now.

@sophieB100

I don't think it's your maths ability. The data isn't really there, and regions are varying a lot. In the NW it looks like hospital admissions have just about flattened of, but here in the SW numbers are still increasing day on day. Luckily our numbers are quite low in comparison to the rest of the UK, but so are our numbers of hospital beds.

You are absolutely right on case numbers. There just isn’t enough testing to give a reliable picture. That is why hospitalisations and deaths are being used as a proxy.

Thanks @SansaSnark.

Hopefully this is something that will be explained at today's Briefing. I'm sure a journalist will ask, as Hancock said it today.

www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

The FT number crunching has been good throughout. This article is informative if sobering.