Is Matt Hancock being premature in saying we are at the peak?

[SansaSnark]

Matt Hancock said today quite clearly "we are at the peak". You can see a video here: news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-we-are-at-the-peak-of-covid-19-outbreak-matt-hancock-tells-mps-11977088

I can't see what he's basing this on, though.

If you look at the numbers of new cases here: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

They have gone down for the last two days, but this has happened before, and then cases have gone back up again. I know we are doing more testing than before, so might expect to find more cases, but there are still lots of people who can't access a test as well. 2-3 days of data doesn't seem to be enough to make this claim, and I think we could easily see a surge in cases soon, following Easter weekend.

The number of deaths has also gone down quite sharply for two days, but then gone back up- again this has happened before.

I think we really need more data to say "we are at the peak"- I think we will only really be able to see it in retrospect. Biological data is rarely truly linear or exponential- it's normal to have some variability day on day!

He did say that lockdown restrictions will need to continue- but he didn't really make it clear than when we relax lockdown, it's very likely we could have a second peak as well.

I'd love to hear what other people think.

@SansaSnark for England I use

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

I think in terms of the UK we have, in terms of London, South East and Midlands they have as well.

@Develsko I agree I think you are the new hotspot hopefully the peak was last week

I think the North East probably has but later.

its the North West and South West that dont look like that had (effects of Liverpool match and Cheltenham?)

I am not sure about the North East or North West regions (indeed I am not convinced they have) or the South West

I would like to see the result of a sunny Easter weekend (still a bit early to know that) first!

Financial Times today reports as many as 41,000 UK Coronavirus deaths. UK government criminally negligent IMO.
www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-deaths-uk-covid19-41000-financial-times-a4420946.html

Cam
I’ve linked the ft article above

A couple of days ago or yesterday, we were told at the 5pm briefing that cases had plateaued or flattened out, but even a cursory glance at the graph showed that numbers of deaths on 21 April was one of the highest ever. Even allowing for a delay between highest numbers of cases and highest numbers of deaths, this didn't ring true. I am not sure they know what they are doing at all.

but even a cursory glance at the graph showed that numbers of deaths on 21 April was one of the highest ever

Wrong graph. Look at the NHS England one which is updated by date of death, rather than death confirmed. There is a lag, often 3 or 4 days, sometimes weeks.

The problem is, the graphs need more than a cursory glance. Figures tend to dip at weekends and catch up/spike on Tuesdays (or Weds /Thurs after bank holidays)

I'd love to hear what other people think.

Hancock doesn't know what day of the week it is, let alone anything else. I've got zero faith in any information coming from any of the cabinet or their "experts".

I don't think anyone has said we're past the peak or in the "post-peak" phase have they? I thought they said we were 'at the peak' or at the plateau phase.

London looks as if it is past the peak. Other regions perhaps not quite

April 10th had the highest numbers not the 8th isn't it?

the deaths declared on a particular day are not the deaths that happened that day. Todays even went back to March

If you look at Englands then the 8th at 828 is certainly the highest. The 10th is 683

At the moment they are expecting 16th onwards to statistically significant numbers to be added and not before

They explain it as
This section contains information on deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and had tested positive for COVID-19 at time of death. All deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. Interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death, particularly for recent prior days, are likely to be updated in future releases. For example, as deaths are confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19, as more post-mortem tests are processed and data from them are validated. Any changes are made clear in the daily files.

How many deaths were there in March compared to an average March ?

So, what I gleaned about this from tonight's Briefing, (thankfully Chris Witty) is that the peak isn't a day, it's a period of time, and we are currently, as the UK, going through it. Numbers will go up and down a bit, but this is the peak. Then they will level off (Witty said would take some time) before they start to dip.
So now I don't get why some people are saying the 'peak' was a single day, namely the 8th of April.
Sorry, I might be really dense here - but did anyone else see what he said any differently? And I don't mean, their interpretation or viewpoint, I mean what he said. Did I misunderstand him? Thanks

Since everything he says has come from the medical/scientific experts, I have no problem believing him.

Oh I trust him totally, RainMustFall, I think he's a safe pair of hands in all of this. It's not him that I doubt.

Since everything he says has come from the medical/scientific experts, I have no problem believing him.

Believing Hancock?

I don't think we have enough data/surveillance to really confirm a sustained drop, and that numbers won't go up again towards the end of this week.

OP if you plot the weekly average of new cases against the total cases to date on a logarithmic scale it becomes fairly clear that we are just about declining a little (doing the same for death rates gives a similar pattern).

We have not yet declined quite as much as say Germany and Italy had at the same point of the curve. One because of their superbly organised response and the other because of a much stricter lockdown.

I think the government have been a little ahead of themselves in all of their statements about where we are on the curve, but given that new cases are definately steady and we have followed several comparable countries very closely in our pattern they are not really unreasonable in what they are saying.

Unless Italy or Spain do something stupid it will be us or France that loses the most lives of any country not governed by a deranged oompa loompa. (For this peak anyway)

Believing Hancock?

Believing whoever is doing the daily update since as I said, the info is not coming from them but from the experts.