After these three weeks...

[catsandlavender]

...what do you think will happen?

NOT with regards to schools, I think we all know those probably aren’t going back in three weeks and there’s too many threads speculating anyway.

I’m just interested if people think that the lockdown will be lifted or extended, or somewhere in between where some things open.

[SarahTancredi]

It really is inhuman to keep people trapped in low quality of life, just because the governments don’t want them adding to figures

Especially when they may end up refusing to admit to treat them anyway so add to the figures unnecessarily regardless

[Springcatkin]

I think it will start to be lifted in the same way as some European countries so smaller shops, garden centres DIY shops etc but maybe not the large shopping malls immediately, and no big recreational places like cinemas or restaurants, no professional sports until much later.
I think schools will reopen 1 June maybe initially just for key years like 9 & 12
I certainly hope so anyway as the economy needs to start getting back to normal.

[SarahTancredi]

I think schools will reopen 1 June maybe initially just for key years like 9 & 12

I dont see how admitting some years and not others will work. If businesses open, vulnerable elderly grandparents who would usually baby sit still shielding then what are parents meant to do when they're work opens but only one kid can go back to school?

[MinkowskisButterfly]

I've seen it mentioned a few times (here and on other threads) that the peak has been reached - but what/where is the evidence for this - appreciate figures dropped dratically yesterday, but it was Monday- figures always drop after the weekend due to the reporting (also there was a massive drop two/maybe three weeks ago before a massive surge). Not trying to be goady, just curious.

[perniciousdot]

DIY stores are already open for click and collect.

They always have been here so that's no indicator.

I think they will extend another 3 weeks.

[sparkler10]

In Switzerland, they’ve opened hair salons. They anyway have a higher rate of testing than the UK but the logic is also that they can implement safety measures, social distancing and contact tracing quite easily.

[lljkk]

This is only the first peak. The next one could be much bigger. The lockdown measures mostly continue until the vaccine can be given to most HCPs & the very vulnerable.

(sigh)

I hate my children's education being disrupted for up to 2 yrs. I guess it's only 2 yrs. But there's the 10? 20? yrs of higher taxes and debt and poorer quality public services they will get, too. We have savings that inflation will highly erode in the next 3-5 yrs. I believe those are the things that will happen. Life won't look 'normal' for about 18months, and then we'll be playing catch up for a very long time after that.

[Cary2012]

The Covid wards are quieter because of the lockdown. If we exit too early, they will be full again. Without PPE. Or further effective treatment. So think about that, hospitals now coping, but PPE running out. Lockdown ends early, second wave, not enough PPE. Disaster.
Also an early exit would not be good for business because just as they get up and running, a second peak hits, and we've undone all the good we've achieved thus far. Then we go into lockdown again, and it all goes on much much longer.
Better to get it right in this lockdown, and suffer it all at once.
Yes, the virus will still be about, but a clearer future will occur because of the time used by the scientists to understand it all.

[TeddyIsaHe]

There’s going to be second/third/fourth peaks until a vaccine. Human trials starting on Thursday though which is positive.

But you need to bolster the economy in between. As horrific as covid is, recession is much worse and longer lasting, and will kill hundreds of thousands.

[Cary2012]

But the government have repeated that they won't lift lockdown until there is no chance of a second peak, and that will take a long time. Said again by Hancock today. Agree it is good news about vaccine trials.

[LilacTree1]

No chance of a second peak = lockdown for months or years.

[StrawberryBlondeStar]

I think it will be extended, but we will have an exit plan from the following Monday (after the bank holiday) of easing of restrictions. So some shops allowed to open (gardening centres etc). Maybe opticians etc.

Schools I think will be back in some form on 1 June, as long as in those 3 weeks there isn’t a big increase in infections.

[Whaddyathinkofthis]

So what do we think the social distancing rules will be if they start to lift the lockdown?

Especially if schools go back in June - kind of makes any social distancing null and void really!

So maybe remove social distancing requirements for all but the most vulnerable, and those who choose to continue for personal reasons. I don't mean the keeping two metres from strangers in shops, but being able to visit close friends and family. So might have used the wrong term!

[Opinewine]

Has everyone forgotten Boris saying we need 12 weeks to get on top of this? So that would take us to around 3rd week of June, so for people who can work from home I am not expecting us to go back until then.

In terms of what will happen in 3 weeks time, I would be interested to know what other countries have done.

[LilacTree1]

“No chance of a second peak” is an insane requirement.

[Mustbetimeforachange]

It was always going to be 12 weeks. They were just honest with the shielding group. And BJ said 12 weeks.
We are all going to get it anyway, or at least most of us. It's not going away.

[Titsywoo]

How is year 9 a key year? Do you mean year 10?

[SarahTancredi]

“No chance of a second peak” is an insane requirement

We haven't even cured the common cold yet. They shouldn't be making promises or statements they cant keep.

I mean even if we do somehow get to 0 cases for a sustained amount of time then surely 3 would be considered another peak then....

[covetingthepreciousthings]

But the government have repeated that they won't lift lockdown until there is no chance of a second peak, and that will take a long time. Said again by Hancock today. Agree it is good news about vaccine trials.

No chance of a second peak? How does that even work, surely it's certain there will be one unless we are all locked up until there's a vaccine

[SophieB100]

Perhaps that is part of the 'throw everything I have at this' speech that Hancock made today about the need for a vaccine.
The second peak thing is one of their five tests that must be met. "Crucially, we must be absolutely certain, that there is no chance of a second peak". Said it again today.
It's such a worry, this uncertainty.

[LilacTree1]

“Throwing everything at it” = Chuck out your £ future, your kids future, your civil rights.

[TheCountessatHotelCortez]

There is no way businesses will survive the uncertainty of lockdowns on and off and the government isn’t going to pay furlough on and off like that

[CherryPavlova]

I’m pretty sure it will be extended as it is because we haven’t peaked and our trajectory is worsening as out of hospital deaths numbers become more obvious in reporting.
It’s not just about everyone having it or protecting the vulnerable. It’s about staffing levels for the care industry, healthcare, emergency services and essential businesses. You can’t run trains without train drivers.
If there is relaxation there will be a surge but lockdown maintains it as a trickle of its potential.

[SarahTancredi]

our trajectory is worsening as out of hospital deaths numbers become more obvious in reporting

This is because no one is being admitted. "Dont overwhelm the NHS " somewhere along the line became " dont admit anyone to hospital at all unless they are literally dying "

If we arent treating people then they are dying necessarily and lockdown was basically for nothing.

And no you can't run trains without drivers. But you also cant run them without people buying tickets.

At 2.4 billion.pounds a day. Lockdown cant go on forever

[SarahTancredi]

if there is relaxation there will be a surge but lockdown maintains it as a trickle of its potential

There are over 66 million people in England. Maintain a slow trickle would take forever