Is the fear out of proportion?

[Hotlungs]

I’m asking this genuinely as I struggle with anxiety and have a tendency to catastrophise.
I read yesterday that 99.5% of people will survive if they have the virus. Whilst I understand that people are worried they are in the 0.5% is the fear rationale? The press describing it as a ‘killer virus’ and people saying they don’t want to go to the supermarket incase they die. Obviously I’m not talking about those in the vulnerable group.
Are we doing poor risk management? Again to clarify I don’t mean the current lockdown situation to protect the NHS (which is needed) but I mean the fear of it.
We are more likely to die in our cars but we risk manager that (with precautions) to still use them. What are people’s thoughts?

InTheShadiws I should stop replying as I'm repeating myself and boring anyone reading this. I've repeatedly noted the link between poor mental health and poverty. I was talking about that weeks ago. Often less mental illness and more understandable despair living a relentlessly desperate life with constant money worries and poor living conditions. I've been talking for weeks about how poor MH is so often linked to physical health conditions. Partly because a lot of the modern medications can cause weight gain. These people are at higher risk from Covid.

It's also the case that mental illness and suicide affects people from all walks of life. Neither fact makes the other incorrect. There's little hope of helping people with mental illness if people working in MH aren't aware of this. It appears the high profile awareness campaigns didn't work.

99.5% of people will survive if they have the virus.

99.5% of all people, but not each individual equally. If you are older, obese, a smoker, male, and have health conditions such as asthma, the odds can change dramtically in your case.

Some people on mumsnet are in a privileged position not to worry about loosing their homes, jobs and livelihoods.

And arguably some people are mumsnet are in the privileged position of not having to worry about losing their lives to this virus.

And arguably some people are on mumsnet are in the privileged position of not having to worry about losing their lives to this virus.

It is not necessarily either selfish or 'othering' to want an end to lockdown and assess on the evidence that that would give a better eventual outcome than carrying on with it.
It's about risk assessment on a population, rather than individual, level and over something more than the short-term.
There are valid reasons for ending lockdown set out in a reasonable and measured way by a number of posters so I won't repeat.
But the issue does need to be discussed without people finding personal offence, and the reason why proportionality of fear matters is that that calm, evidence-based discussion is far harder to have when there is disproportionate fear.
It is also obviously just human nature to care more about some people and issues than others, so I am not convinced that it is any more selfish to say that lockdown should end, than to say we should keep it going. But again no sensible discussion can be had in a hotbed of disproportionate fear.

Surely a reason for how hard Uk and USA have been hit is to do with how unhealthy a large proportion of the population is, ie overweight / obese and how bad diet is compared to European countries ?

Are you teetotal nuitdesetoiles? Don't go jogging or engage in any kind of sport that could cause injury? No DIY? Never eat cakes or biscuits or any junk food? It's a slippery slope to imply victim blaming of smokers or the overweight. And smokers pay a huge amount of tax for the NHS. I don't smoke btw. No vested interest.

Funny how some posters profess concern for those living in poverty or with poor mental health. But happily castigate smokers and the overweight. Despite the strong link between poor mental health, poverty, and these two issues. Be it comfort eating, medication side effects, or smoking to deal with stress, people use copying mechanisms to try to deal with shit situations. Their lives are no less valuable than anyone else's.

Oh I'm sorry Toffee, are you not very bright?

Let's take Bristol. Population around 72,000.

Domestic abuse incidents reported last year (we know many won't report) but still..more than 10,000

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/avon-somerset-police-domestic-abuse-3945477.amp

Avon and Somerset Police reported a 20% increase in DV reports in the last 2 weeks.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/26/warning-over-rise-in-uk-domestic-abuse-cases-linked-to-coronavirus

Numbers of confirmed cases of COVID in Bristol? Less than 500. Confirmed deaths? A tiny bit over 100.

So just looking at this city, you are at a hugely greater risk of being a victim of abuse due to lockdown than the extremely small risk you're being abused while being COVID positive.

I want to keep everyone protected. I'd much rather our taxes were spent on long term supporting those need to be at home including their families if necessary.

I also want to make sure there are jobs to go back to. There are going to have to be compromises made and keeping everyone inside for 2 years isn't going to work. Much better to put money into keeping those that won't survive it at home rather than all of us.

Are you teetotal nuitdesetoiles? Don't go jogging or engage in any kind of sport that could cause injury? No DIY? Never eat cakes or biscuits or any junk food? It's a slippery slope to imply victim blaming of smokers or the overweight. And smokers pay a huge amount of tax for the NHS. I don't smoke btw. No vested interest.

Yes it's quite unpleasant how some posters are now trying to blame those who are at risk of coronavirus. Ironically I bet half of them are not too healthy themselves and the only reason they are at low risk is because they are under 40.

And your gaslighting suggesting you didn't say things you did and that we can all see is quite disturbing Toffee

Are you okay hun?

I have asthma- as posters no doubt know by now as I drive them so bonkers apparently

So no vested interest

Unless anyone wants to buy me some nicotine patches? But I’m not sure how long you can blame smokers

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus?CMP=share_btn_tw

I'm no genuis but bright enough, thanks.

What do you want to do? Go back to the pre lockdown of two DV killings a week? Again, it's not lockdown that's the problem. It's violent abusers. As I said, I think two murders a week was bad enough to warrant extra funding for support. It didn't happen. What makes you believe lifting lockdown will suddenly make that happen? I've also given suggestions of practical help that could and should be available for victims (during and after lockdown).

It's extremely offensive and distasteful to use vulnerable DV victims as an excuse for your desire to end lockdown prematurely.

I ask again. What do you think happens if lockdown is lifted too soon? Do you think Bristol will continue to have a low number of Covid cases? If so, why? I'm genuinely interested. I suggested yesterday that, when we were ready to start easing lockdown, we could consider a regional approach. So starting in places like Bristol with lower cases. Would you want that?

It's a worry if you really do work in MH InTheShadiws

It's interesting Lilac I've seen a few reports suggesting smoking might have a protective effect, although they haven't done much research on it. They think it might possibly make you less likely to catch it. But if you catch it, you're more likely to have it badly. Strange and interesting how that might work.

If those figures are true, or thereabouts, then U.K. will have been hit harder (population size factored in) than Italy or Spain.

No, Italy and Spain's numbers only include hospital deaths. They do not include deaths in care homes or in the community.

FT projections do not appear unreasonable but they cannot be compared with the official statistics for either Italy or Spain (who both had major problems with care home deaths).

There is an odd thing like that with some autoimmune conditions and smoking too..(less likely to have it) odd

I was really
Anxious and still am a bit because I'm pregnant but I've started to move past that and become very depressed and not caring anymore if that makes sense. I don't know why I feel so bad at the moment. :-/

In fact, FT projections cover all excess deaths, including indirect consequences of COVID (e.g. deaths of people who do not seek medical treatment for other conditions). The 41,000 number catches up the eye and it may potentially represent projected excess deaths (if FT modelling is correct) but so far it is not comparable with any other statistics published by any other country.

Yes Toffee, I would like to go back to pre-lockdown domestic murder rates rather than double that which we're seeing now.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/domestic-abuse-killings-more-than-double-amid-covid-19-lockdown

And I am very happy that I work in MH services and have the knowledge and expertise to refute the untrue things that people like you make up in their heads as a reason to throw vulnerable and ill people under the bus to justify your selfish agenda.

To be fair, that's one of the points of my job

@maria860 I'm sorry you're feeling so bad. It's obviously a scary situation but we have a lot of hope too. We're in lockdown so measures have been taken to limit the damage - saving lives and protecting the economy as much as possible. Lockdown buys us time too. There's a saying about the tortoise winning the race. We have scientists working on vaccines. One might start to be distributed by September. It won't be available for everyone at that stage and there's no guarantee but it's a positive start. We also have promising drugs being trialled. And I've seen research suggesting it's possible being pregnant can have a protective effect. It might not be the case but it's a possibility and gives a bit of hope. It's not all ok, no, but there's lots of precautions you can take to keep yourself as safe as possible. It's hard not to worry but I hope that helps you feel slightly less down.

What have I made up Shadiw? Please don't accuse me of doing the opposite of what I'm doing. Everyone can see my posts. It's very clear what I'm saying, unless someone chooses to intentionally misinterpret.

We'll have to agree to disagree on DV. I don't think it's ok to go back to two murders a week. That's not ok. Those lives matter as much as anyone else's. What are your views on the practical solutions I suggested? For now and for when lockdown ends? Likewise I suggested a way of easing lockdown when it's safe to do so. What is your opinion on that?

It's not lockdown causing suffering. It's Covid. The suffering would be far greater with a premature end. That really would be throwing the vulnerable under the bus.

Clearly what we need to do is lockdown hard then test and trace hot spots. It's really simple. There's no point easing a lockdown only to have a second wave hit the country.

Why do parents of disabled children think they'll be in a better position to access services if the country is in the grip of a renewed Covid-19 surge? I can't make head or tail of it. Don't they understand what that would actually look like? Do they realise just how high the numbers could get, how big the treatment bill would be and how many HCP we would lose through death, lack of funding and post-covid health conditions (like PTSD). I'm amazed to hear people talking about this lockdown like it's the clear and present threat to mental health. You clearly haven't visited an ICU ward recently or lost a supportive parent in their 60s.

There isn't an endless pot of money or an endless supply of doctors and therapists. Covid patients would take far far more money and resources from other vulnerable groups than any recession. You may be sure of this because we have a government who is really only interested in doing sums like this.

Not to minimize the harmful effects of lockdown. But staying at home is nothing compared to the trauma and carnage of Covid-19 surges. I don't think people grasp the exponential growth of this thing.

@woodchuck99 my husband is one of the vulnerable, high blood pressure, had a stroke, asthma but can’t afford not to work as we will loose our house, not entitled to furlough as started on the 2nd March which unless you are on HMRC are not entitled to anything, he is looking at getting a supermarket job just to have some money coming in, you live in a privileged bubble, you are the selfish one here, who has no thought for anyone else.

I’m sick of this argument on here from the privilege few who can afford to sit at home.