Is the fear out of proportion?

[Hotlungs]

I’m asking this genuinely as I struggle with anxiety and have a tendency to catastrophise.
I read yesterday that 99.5% of people will survive if they have the virus. Whilst I understand that people are worried they are in the 0.5% is the fear rationale? The press describing it as a ‘killer virus’ and people saying they don’t want to go to the supermarket incase they die. Obviously I’m not talking about those in the vulnerable group.
Are we doing poor risk management? Again to clarify I don’t mean the current lockdown situation to protect the NHS (which is needed) but I mean the fear of it.
We are more likely to die in our cars but we risk manager that (with precautions) to still use them. What are people’s thoughts?

@ToffeeYoghurt very good post!

Toffee chuck - we are talking about a relaxation not a complete end. If we go to the measures that Germany is now doing - social distancing, work from home where possible, schools back but masks on public transport and in shops, those at high risk to stay home - the infection rate should stay at levels that the NHS can cope with.

That certainly seems like a reasonable step which does aim to protect the vulnerable in a proportionate way.

I don’t think 30-40% of the population is low, but given a fatality rate of 0.5%, it’s questionable as to whether 30-40% are ‘high risk’

Oh and Beijing Aside from a few genuine nomads and (mostly young) gap year student type travellers, the vast majority of people in poorer countries would prefer to be able to access living wage work in their own countries. It's no-one's dream to have to, out of desperation, leave your home, your family, your friends, your life, to go around the world to be exploited in very badly paid work with poor conditions. If you're concerned perhaps after the pandemic look at becoming involved in campaigns for foreign aid to be spent more widely, to ensure it actually reached those that need it, and to tackle corruption amongst the government, senior charity executives, NGOs, multinational companies, and elsewhere.

You think people committing suicide under lockdown are likely from 'privilged groups' Toffee?

Surprised some posters think around 30-40% of the UK population is "the few". We have "The elderly" (the age risk starts to increase at 40), people who are overweight, and then there's the conditions with the highest mortality rates despite not being on the government's shielding list - diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular issues. All very common conditions albeit more so amongst those living in poverty (unfortunately a large number of people). Someone mentions those at risk of homelessness. That group will be farote likely to be at risk than others because of the strong link between poor living conditions and poverty and serious health issues.

This is absolute nonsense. The chances of someone dying outside of the shielding group are very, very small. House the homeless people, fine. Obese people can decide to lose weight or stay home.

Let the rest of us get on with it.

Eyewhisker If only we were like Germany! Unfortunately we don't have the very well funded and well managed health service that they do, we didn't handle the initial outbreak as efficiently as they did, we don't have the tests and testing capacity they have, the PPE (and likely drug stock) they have, nor the hospital capacity they do. They have a far higher number of ICU beds per population than us. We're on course to having the highest death rate in Europe. Germany has one of the lowest. We also don't have enough masks for frontline workers so I'm unsure we can provide the general public with enough?

Of course we eventually have to start to relax lockdown. Perhaps once we're at a similar stage to Germany is now? It's so important to remember more haste, less speed.

Our current fatality rate would shoot right up if we lifted lockdown too soon.

Thanks woodchuck I agree with everything you're saying in your posts.

Where on earth did I suggest that eyewhisker? I was debating why some people are so desperate for a premature end to lockdown. Some presumably lack morals (those talking about "it's only the elderly and ill"), or refuse to believe it will affect them personally. For some that will be coming from a position of privilege - be it affluence or good health (often but not always go together) or plain old head in the sand. Others might be suicidal. I've seen several posters across threads saying they don't care if they die from it. Obviously people from all walks of life feel suicidal and yes some people who commit suicide do come from privileged groups. Because privilege in one way doesn't protect from mental health issues.

MarginalGain The published mortality figures worldwide show the highest death rates are amongst many not in the shielding group - diabetes, hypertension, cardiac issues, being overweight. And yes of course every overweight person can snap their fingers and instantly lose weight. Aside from the time it takes, many are obese because of other issues. Poverty (hard to eat well on restricted budget), medication and/or illness that causes weight gain, restricted mobility, mental health issues.

Good luck "getting on with it" whilst everyone else around you, including the healthcare workers, are dying or off sick for weeks on end.

Toffee - they clearly won’t be people dying all around!! This is not the bubonic plague!

By the 11th May, we will be where Germany is now and so can relax. The testing thing is great, but not necessary if you look at Sweden. They don’t have amazing testing, have similarly crap ICU capacity compared to here but with social distancing are having cases at a manageable level.

Some people on mumsnet are in a privileged position not to worry about loosing their homes, jobs and livelihoods.

Eye “ Toffee - they clearly won’t be people dying all around!! This is not the bubonic plague! ”

Careful now. You’ll burst Toffee’s bubble.

@ToffeeYoghurt, I suspect some of the ones who want to see the end of the lockdown asap are:

• people who have absolutely no oncome atm/have been made redundant/were relying on food bank before the lockdown. In effect, the least priviledged in our society
• people who currently have health issue notrelated to thr CV-19 and are struggling becase of it. Eg my neigbourgh has had two strokes in the last two weeks and cant get the care she needs (eg she realeased from hosp but couldnt get hold of anyone when symptoms can becak - she had a second stroke...)
• people with MH issues in the first place which have been made 100x worse by the lockdown
• women in abuisve relationhsip or simply who are livg wth pricks that are making their life a misery

etc...

Basically to be happy with a lockdwon that is going on and on, you need to be in a quite privledge position. Then, of course, its just about staying indoors. For anyone else.....

It is interesting though that you are making it all about a lack of moral and not caring about others/having suicidal tendencies.....

Privilige does not protect you from being suicidal. But suicide is more commonly seen, as other MH and physical illnesses in people of lower socio-economic status Toffee.

Do you not know much about sociology, economics and health? It sounds like it.

People with precarious jobs or low incomes or relying on food banks or in abusive situations are very often the people at highest risk from Covid. As I've said poverty is very strongly linked to ill health. As is poor mental health. Posters refer to obesity. You don't regularly get fresh unprocessed food from food banks.

Abuse? Imagine being very ill with Covid and living with an abuser. I've posted before what we can do about abuse. Other countries put women and children in holiday homes, empty Airbnbs and hotels. Fund more online support for those unable to make phone calls. It's one positive at least seeing so much concern. Before the pandemic two women a week were killed by abusive partners or ex partners but not much was done. Perhaps with the newfound concerns or awareness we'll see better funded services post pandemic.

People with health conditions in need of treatment are in a shit situation, of course. They need treatment but equally they're more vulnerable to dying or suffering serious issues with Covid. We can't magic it away unfortunately. All we can do is choose the least shit option. No good returning to routine full hospital capacity then have the healthcare staff dropping like flies. The patients won't be getting any treatment in that case even if they themselves manage to avoid or survive Covid. Pretending everything is normal won't make it normal. We have a pandemic. A highly contagious often deadly virus.

It's privileged to complain about being indoors for a few weeks. There are people who are permanently housebound. They have no end date.

No idea what you're trying to say Question MarkNow I'm a strong advocate for better mental health services and proper help rather than telling people to "reach out" to places that are too overwhelmed to help much. Pointing out a few posters have said they don't care if they die from Covid doesn't mean I don't care about suicidal people. Why would it? I'm sorry they feel that way.

@QuestionMarkNow

Too right.

And don't forget parents of disabled children. We now can't acsess the respite or therepy services we rely on.

People that rely on public services also have the added worry of what will happen to the already limited help we get after a monumental ressesion.

Yes it might be selfish, but those wanting to drag the lockdown out are also being selfish. The lockdown does not come without consequence. The cure cannot be worse than the disease.

You can't have read my posts InTheShadiws if you think that. I've been saying for ages how poverty is linked to poor health - physical and mental. And of course the consequent higher risk to Covid.

But, when it comes to suicide and mental illness it's very important to realise that it effects people from all walks of life. Only someone with complete ignorance of mental health would think otherwise. It's especially surprising people are still so unaware considering how many tragic high profile suicides we've had over recent years.

MarginalGain The published mortality figures worldwide show the highest death rates are amongst many not in the shielding group - diabetes, hypertension, cardiac issues, being overweight. And yes of course every overweight person can snap their fingers and instantly lose weight. Aside from the time it takes, many are obese because of other issues. Poverty (hard to eat well on restricted budget), medication and/or illness that causes weight gain, restricted mobility, mental health issues.

I think that the real reason that the lockdown has such great public support is that a lot of people like the simplicity of the message:

Stay Home
Protect the NHS
Save Lives

and the do not want to see it changed to

Lose Weight & Exercise
Protect the NHS
Save Lives

They've enjoyed their peculiar superiority to runners and cyclists during lockdown and they don't want to see the shoe on the other foot.

I work in MH Toffee. People are committing suicide NOW and many individuals mental health has reduced to the point they are at risk to themselves and others NOW as a result of lockdown.

Epic straw man you gave about domestic violence and how much worse it would be if you had COVID living with an abuser. Domestic violence and domestic murders have rocketed due to lockdown.

Number of women with COVID living with an abuser? Tiny.

The number of women at increased risk of abuse or murder due to lockdown far, far exceeds that.

There are numerous studies worldwide Toffee describing increased risk of mental illness and suicide in lower socio-economic groups. You could have Googled for a second before making wild claims to support your agenda.

How do you know how many women or children in DV situations have Covid? Do you have any figures. Why would they not catch it? And abuse is another factor in poor health so they're more likely than most to have an at risk condition. And straw man? How? What do you think it would be like to be ill with something that leaves many bedbound whilst living with an abuser. Lockdown is not killing women. Violent abusers are. They were before lockdown too. Two women a week were being killed before lockdown. Was that not a problem? It's disgusting people faking concern for those women in DV situations. Don't use them as an excuse for your refusal to accept reality. If you care, campaign for the help I suggested. Actual practical help.

Mental health. What do you think happens if we had a bad second wave? With one of the highest Covid death rates in the world and the related disruption and distress, what impact would an infinitely worse situation have on people's mental health? And if you work in MH you'd know it's a frequent comorbidity with physics health problems. As with DV, it's a shame all this concern wasn't so apparent before the pandemic. People have been suffering with little access to decent help for years. Let's hope that changes post pandemic.

Financial Times today reports around 41,000 total deaths in the U.K. from Cornonavirus. If those figures are true, or thereabouts, then U.K. will have been hit harder (population size factored in) than Italy or Spain. The worst hit in the world, save (at present) Belgium. Events like Cheltenham Festival look like criminal negligence to me.

"But, when it comes to suicide and mental illness it's very important to realise that it effects people from all walks of life. Only someone with complete ignorance of mental health would think otherwise. It's especially surprising people are still so unaware considering how many tragic high profile suicides we've had over recent years."

I can link to numerous studies saying that mental illness and suicide disproprortionately effects people from lower socio-economic status Toffee.

You've displayed 'complete ignorance' suggesting otherwise so i'm happy to help educate you out of your embarassing ignorance.

How do you know how many women or children in DV situations have Covid? Do you have any figures. Why would they not catch it?

Just draw some statistical inferences of how many could be 'very ill' with covid19 in the general population at any time, given that 80% of the population will have either a mild or asymptomatic case of it, maybe?

@MarginalGain

Or even

Stop smoking
Lose weight and exercise
Protect the nhs
Save lives

Smoking and a sedentary lifestyle place huge burdens on the nhs. Have seen a few pulling their masks to the side to smoke...