Why did Sweden decide to act differently?

[tontie]

Sweden is an outlier, any ideas as why they decided to do things differently? protect the economy or because they think this is the best long term strategy?

Sweden seems to have gone in more for the social distancing stance.
Their take is that their Health Services do not have to be protected like ours, and that they have spare capacity.
Note the Lockdown here, is to 'save the NHS', which comes before 'Save Lives'.
This is a new virus, and there is no cure, except the anti-bodies your own body produces to fight off the disease. This means we will all potentially all get it, until their is either a vaccine, or we reach 'herd immunity'. Having a lockdown does not prevent you from getting it. The purpose is to 'lower the spike', ie lengthen the time period, enabling the NHS to cope. The idea is that actually fewer people will die, because the NHS will have the facilities to cope more.
In Sweden they believe that trashing the economy, when the health svcs can cope, is a bad idea.

All Scandi countries have a much lower death rate than N&W European countries with comparable strategies
BUT

Sweden without a lockdown has a much higher death rate - whether measured in absolute or population normalised deaths - than the other Scandi countries

If the UK could have coped without lockdown, then the UK figures with lockdown should be much lower than Italy, Spain, France

In fact the UK is probably going to be higher than those countries
which tells us that lockdown was the right policy at the time - for the UK

The UK COVID death curves track Italy, not Scandinavian countries, with or without lockdown

I have not seen reliable evidence, as distinct from internet speculation, that Sweden's infection rate is more than 5-10%

Are there estimates from public health Sweden for this ?

The Swedish economy may not be doing that great, though

"As of mid-week, Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson estimated that the nation’s GDP could shrink by as much as 10 percent this year, and that unemployment could reach as high as 15 percent."

It seems in part as a consequence of the economic impact in the rest of Europe.

In Sweden they believe that trashing the economy, when the health svcs can cope, is a bad idea.

It's something that it's starting to be considered in Portugal.
It was possible to increase hospital and ICU capacity as well as the number of ventilators and PPE for hospitals. ATM, at what looks like a plateau, ICU occupation is reportedly between 50 and 60%.
Many shops and supermarkets have installed protective equipment.
The government is already talking about relaxing some measures in May and encouraging people to wear "social masks", at least indoors.

Sweden is reporting 185 deaths today... it’s highest yet and equivalent to the UK reporting over 1,200 daily deaths. However, their figures yo-yo so much it’s difficult to read too much into them, but clearly it’s not a positive figure.

It was entirely predictable to me and follows their pattern of reporting.
The last lowest figures, which occur at regular intervals (linked with weekends), were higher than previous lower figures.
I'd be surprised if today was a low value.

185 dead today.

I don't think Sweden are doing that well as described, personally in the inner cities like Stockholm. London was piped as the epicentre so you should really be looking at the inner cities rather than the sparse populations of Sweden.

I personally know of at least 7 deaths in the BAME community in Stockholm. Most were my relatives or relatives of close friends within last 2 weeks.

I personally know of at least 7 deaths in the BAME community in Stockholm. Most were my relatives or relatives of close friends within last 2 weeks.

I am very sorry to hear that. I hope that you and the rest of your family are okay.

1200 deaths yeaterday ??? Wow. That's not good. I keep an eye on their deaths to see if ireland's restrictions are working. Yesterday our deaths were 41. Double that. 82. So wow 1200 dearhs yesterday looks very bad for them.

I compare ireland and sweden because their population twice ours.

Oh! Sorry. 185 is the equivalent 1200

@MadCatEnthusiast I'm sorry, that's awful.

Their yoyo is weekend related, so you kind of can compare values. Compare the peaks or the 7 day average rather than individual days.

"Regarding the study in Sweden that supposedly showed that 11% of blood donors in Stockholm were seropositive, the researchers are withdrawing the results."

mobile.twitter.com/DinaPomeranz/status/1252925998531739649

On the other hand:
Stockholm
"data show steady deceleration in new hospitalisations
• Daily hospital beds occupied now unchanged vs last week, and on course for net week-on-week reduction very soon."
mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1252698426116096001

Another big rise today of 172, equivalent to a 1,000+ rise in the UK. I’m not sure if they are including care homes in their figures though. Even if they are, the figures aren’t good.

It's possible they are testing more, so the number of cases reflects reality better, but the number of hospitalised seems to show they are not increasing much now. Unless their hospital capacity is full. I don't know.

Sweden to reach herd immunity "within weeks"

Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.

The strategy — basically, one that aimed to slow the spread of the virus while allowing some exposure to it, aiming to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial, with some health experts likening it to playing “Russian roulette” with public health.

But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist has said that the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.

“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC Tuesday.

In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that.

So the plateau is a result of approaching herd immunity rather than social distancing, and that despite the significant social distancing - albeit short of a lockdown - they will reach herd immunity in weeks. Unless the situation in Sweden is far worse than is being reported, I’m very sceptical of this when compared to other countries’ experiences.

And he believes this despite only 0.16% of the population having tested positive?

We'll see when they relax social distancing anyway. It would be great if that's the case.

We'll see when they relax social distancing anyway. It would be great if that's the case.

But that's the point. They can crack on as is, with gradual refinements as they go.

We cannot.

They can crack on as is, with gradual refinements as they go.
We cannot.

Why?

At the moment they're a case study. And the difference in social distancing is not all or nothing.

I really doubt they are anywhere close to actual herd immunity.

There are some recent suggestions that children don't transmit this easily, which makes some sense if they rarely develop symptoms.
Who makes the best choices at this time, and certainly a month ago, is basically a lottery, because not much is still known about this virus.