How long can we carry on like this for?

[Pseudosudocrem]

Anyone else starting to wonder just how long we can carry on like this before everything irrevocably falls apart?

How will we ever recover as a country?

I don’t often agree with Trump but he was right when he said don’t let the cure be worse than the disease.

I can do the next 3 weeks. Perhaps a few more after that. I'm not willing to keep it up indefinitely. I'm not going to explain my reasons for that, as they're nothing extraordinary. I fully understand what an unpopular statement this will be but I will not be spending a winter, much less a christmas under lockdown. I will not be sacrificing my career, my family's finances or my mental health.

You talk as if you have a choice but actually if the lockdown goes on for longer than you want you don't with regard to most things. It doesn't really rely on an individual's goodwill. For example, you can't work if your place of employment is shut. You can't go to the cinema or restaurants or leisure centres if they are shut. All you can do really is go to a friends/family house so your statement is not so much "unpopular" as a bit naïve.

@peasoup8 that about sums it up

I also agree with the op who said they need the agreement of the people to continue it. And I’m not going to comply with months and months of not seeing my partner when there’s no particular risk. I don’t think people will keep away from loved ones so the lockdown will begin to fail. Schooling us a massive concern too.

There are hospitals lying half empty waiting for coronavirus patients to arrive while others are having vital treatment delayed.

How exactly is stopping lockdown and raising the number of cases coronavirus going to increase NHS capacity for people to have hospital treatment? Apart from the fact that hospitals will be more full, much of the treatment for conditions such as cancer puts patients at high risk from coronavirus and will be very dangerous if infections increase. My own treatment is delayed for this reason. It is nothing to do with the hospital "lying empty".

I also agree with the op who said they need the agreement of the people to continue it. And I’m not going to comply with months and months of not seeing my partner when there’s no particular risk.

Seeing your partner is all you can do though and there is nothing really to stop you doing that anyway. What you can't do and what doesn't rely on your goodwill is going to cinemas, theatres, pubs,schools etc. That's the thing that makes a real difference to infections and doesn't rely on good will.

Other people will organise meet ups and parties. Especially young people, fair enough as it’s so low risk for them. The lack of income, and businesses going bust and families losing homes will also change the public mood. Then it will spiral out of control.

How exactly is stopping lockdown and raising the number of cases coronavirus going to increase NHS capacity for people to have hospital treatment?

There’s no reason for people who are seriously unwell with other illnesses to have their treatment delayed when there are plenty of hospital beds lying empty. It’s not right. But as others have said, the rest of us are just collateral damage.

If it is you or your loved ones who are affected then it is worth staying in lockdown for as long as it takes.

If I have to stay in lockdown for as long as it takes, then perhaps you could explain how I’m meant to keep a roof over my head? My mortgage holiday is for three months - after that I’m in serious trouble.

Other people will organise meet ups and parties. Especially young people, fair enough as it’s so low risk for them.

In what way can it "spiral out of control "? Young people having meet ups probably isn't going to make a huge difference to anything. They can't go to cinema theatres or pubs, concerts if they aren't open. They can't go to work, school or college if they are't open. People don't have a choice about lockdown. Much of it is outside individual control.

Now just today in the guardian, it said that ITU beds normally have 1 nurse to a patient. Now it's 1 to 6 with nurses drafted from other areas

It's not just beds that are needed.

And I hardly think they will be keen on losing some beds to reopen operating theatres. And I hardly think they will be keen to perform operations without PPE

There’s no reason for people who are seriously unwell with other illnesses to have their treatment delayed when there are plenty of hospital beds lying empty.

Yes there is! People who are seriously unwell are at high risk of getting death if they catch coronavirus and the last place they need to be is in a hospital where they have a high chance of catching it .Many treatments such cancer treatments cause immuno suppression and will put the person at very high risk of death if they get infected. I don't need a hospital bed and my treatment is delayed because it will massively increase my risk because I will be immuno suppressed. It has nothing to do with hospital beds being taken up by coronavirus patients and even as it was letting infections increase would hardly help.

The number of deaths rose again yesterday and those dying at home and in care homes have still not been included. The furloughed scheme has been extended until the end of June - I can’t see anything changing until the number of deaths per day decreases significantly.

At the start of this it was said that under 20,000 deaths would be a good result, if you estimate the number of deaths at care homes, we’ve probably hit that now and not yet reached the peak.

Hospital cases (probably the most efficient way of calculating the peak) are going down

The number of deaths is not a straightforward collection as the number announced yesterday didn’t die yesterday. If you check the daily stays from NHS england 8th April is still the highest. We need another week of data but it is looking hopeful on the peak front

If it is you or your loved ones who are affected then it is worth staying in lockdown for as long as it takes.

Is it? You can speak for everyone then? There may be plenty who would rather take their chances with the virus than live in fear and misery locked in their house for 2 years

I think it’s probably true that if you or perhaps more particularly loved ones are at a genuinely high risk then it’s easier to accept the loss of income and freedom than it is if statistically you and yours should be fine. That’s human nature.

Long as it takes for what?

I am fully prepared to stay in this lockdown for as long as it takes to suppress the curve and manage transmission of the virus. Data is looking good and personally (and I hate to say I agree either Dominic Raab) I have come to far in to stop.

I am happy to be cautious with it and add on time at the end of this to take us through to End May beginning June. And the 12 weeks initially stated

Because that to me is what is needed. Beyond that we need to restart everything because that is what is needed

I do not think lockdown until a vaccine is what it takes

I think it’s probably true that if you or perhaps more particularly loved ones are at a genuinely high risk then it’s easier to accept the loss of income and freedom than it is if statistically you and yours should be fine. That’s human nature.

Yes, and this is why people don't actually have much choice about lockdown. It's interesting that so many people don't seem to have realised this and think that they are currently just doing older and more vulnerable people favour out of choice.

I asked this before, if it is believed that this virus started from a wet market in China, why the heck have they been allowed to re-open them? Why has the rest of the world allowed this, considering we have a global pandemic??

Unfortunately, people losing their jobs and income does seem to be collateral damage.
The lockdown started on 23rd March, let’s say we go on until end of May, that’s about 10 weeks.
We are doomed if it isn’t over by then and I don’t think people will be willing to cooperate much more. If people face the prospect of losing their home, they will take the view they have little else to lose.

Jedi
Totally agree. Patience is wearing already
I was all for lockdown but even I’m now willing to return to work

We cannot avoid this virus. We are just staggering the rate of cases. The country can’t hide for the next 18 months. We all just have to get it gradually. There is no other way.

@newwnamme I completely agree with you.

Sunshine , wouldn’t it be better to say that the lockdown will remain in place until potentially end of May. After that things will slowly re-open. Vulnerable people will be paid to stay at home, I mean people who go to work but are pregnant or have health conditions.
Everyone else who is reasonably low risk can return.
Surely the economy will take priority, without tax payers there is no NHS. They must be losing so much tax under furlough any way, remember people on high salaries will have their pay capped at 2500 per month meaning they will be paying less PAYE.

For people worried (understandably) about mortgage or rent holidays ending - of course they will be extended if the lockdown has to continue.

The biggest issue is that the thinking has been quite haphazard and unfair, with some people furloughed on 80%, which for anyone on low income is not enough, self-employed people will get even more random help - which isn’t even available yet, and then there are key workers working long hours, many risking their lives on low incomes. It’s a mess.

If the lockdown needs to continue then the government needs to support everyone to get through it. There is enough money, it just needs to be directed in the right places.

Lots of people still seem to think that lockdown is designed to stop everyone getting the virus. It isn’t that at all. The aim of lockdown is to stop everyone getting it at the same time,

In the long term herd immunity is the only way out and in the medium term lockdown restrictions will have to start being relaxed if we are to have any kind of stable economy and lifestyle.