How long can we carry on like this for?

[Pseudosudocrem]

Anyone else starting to wonder just how long we can carry on like this before everything irrevocably falls apart?

How will we ever recover as a country?

@woodchuck99 in England if you assume that half of the 1079 deaths between 40-59 are under 50 (and it is likely to be lower) the % of deaths in England under 50 is a max of 4.6%

For reassurance, watch the other countries coming out of lockdown at the moment

See how their ‘return to normal life’ is slowly coming back.

Watch their health stats. Because give or take a few corrupt stats and news reports (depending on the country!) that’s how the UK is going to start their recovery period too.

Everything will go back to normal eventually. This country lived through two world wars. We still have national stoicism.

At some point we have become to frightened of it. For most of human civilisation death was a part of life. They walked hand in hand together entwined. And people had faith that this was simply one stage and we would pass onto the next one.

I would say that the thing that has changed is people have become less adaptable and can't cope with the idea that their way of life needs to change .People have always been afraid of death. It is a survival instinct.

in England if you assume that half of the 1079 deaths between 40-59 are under 50 (and it is likely to be lower) the % of deaths in England under 50 is a max of 4.6%

4.6% is not "vanishingly small or "way below" 5%.

Here are some more stats.

If you scroll down to 5 there is an interesting graph that breaks down the deaths by age group. This demonstrate fairly unequivocally that this is a disease of the elderly.

The message is being pushed hard by the media that this disease can kill anybody, but the facts simply don't support this view.

TL:DR

If you scroll down to 5 there is an interesting graph that breaks down the deaths by age group. This demonstrate fairly unequivocally that this is a disease of the elderly.

It is not the disease of the elderly. The majority of those who are dying are elderly at the moment but many younger people are being hospitalised. They are only surviving because they are receiving treatment from the NHS. This may be less likely if the NHS becomes overstretched.

There will be no pensions if we sit back and let the economy crash. Where do you think pension money comes from??

It really sickens me how some of you so callously talk about it being a disease of 'elderly' people and quoting various percentages. How would you feel if you were 65, fit and nowhere near finished with life?

@woodchuck99 under 40 is 0.8%

It really sickens me how some of you so callously talk about it being a disease of 'elderly' people and quoting various percentages. How would you feel if you were 65, fit and nowhere near finished with life?

I would feel more concerned than if I was a healthy 35-year-old. Which I am, which is why I'm less concerned. That's not callous.

Nike what about the hospitalisation rates are they similar?

The unknown long term damage is a cause fir concern in younger people.

There is no way lockdown is going to end after 3 weeks. It may start to relax around June if we are lucky but things are not going to go back to normal for ages.

I will not be going anywhere for the foreseeable future. DH is self employed and was talking about restarting work in June but now he too his saying he will likely not work or go out unless he really has to.

We are lucky in that we have no rent or mortgage and our outgoings are quite low. I get the state pension and, if we are careful, we should be able to manage on that.

We used to go to the cinema and theatre fairly often and although we will miss going would rather stay safe.

It's frightening to think what is going to happen with the economy. I really think so many shops, cafes, restaurants and other businesses will go bust. The NHS was already very short of staff and they are going to lose quite a lot of staff because they die from the virus. Also it is highly likely a lot will leave and who could honestly blame them.

Councils are already saying they will badly struggling for money. Lots of charities will struggle or go under.

Sadly I think the future looks very bleak and I feel very sorry for young people and children.

@woodchuck99

If the over 80's had a think about whether or not they should be taking up NHS resources or accepting palliative care at home, there wouldn't be any pressure on the NHS.

Even so, the Nightingale hospital has treated 30 patients so far (in the peak of the disease) when it has approx 4,000 beds. I'd suggest that the NHS is nowhere near capacity.

@NikeDeLaSwoosh can you link to the paper you were referring to earlier re the podcast please?

@woodchuck99 under 40 is 0.8%

Oh that's okay then. As long as everyone under 40 survives everything will be absolutely hunky-dory.

Even so, the Nightingale hospital has treated 30 patients so far (in the peak of the disease) when it has approx 4,000 beds. I'd suggest that the NHS is nowhere near capacity.

Its hard to say then when we know operations and cancer treatments have been delayed.

I’m an introvert and probably have some social anxieties and an loving this social distancing. I’m scared about everything re-opening and having to go back into work everyday and talk to real people instead of calling on zoom or teams. It’s actually terrifying me.

Eyewhisker
Thanks for the link to article. This is what Nike was talking about.

I also agree that we as a privileged first world society believe ourselves to be quasi invincible, even potentially immortal and many have a disconnect that one day they and their loved ones will die. I don’t think this belief is healthy at all and is one, which I dreamt was true until I was forced to face my mortality. It’s a relatively new phenomenon, I Imagine, heralded in in the wake of antibiotics, advanced cancer treatments and the like.

And but for the learning and curiosity about the future, I would hate to be immortal!

How would you feel if you were 65, fit and nowhere near finished with life?

I would't be concerned at all, over 70% of all deaths have involved obese people, and only 91% of deaths have been in individuals with underlying health concerns.

I would apply a bit of logic and realise that if I were a healthy weight and with no underlying health issues, The overwhelmingly most likely scenario is that I have nothing to fear from the virus.

Nobody really thinks they won’t die. We just don’t see any point thinking about it.

@Tonemeth

Sure, here you go.

It really sickens me how some of you so callously talk about it being a disease of 'elderly' people and quoting various percentages. How would you feel if you were 65, fit and nowhere near finished with life?

My parents are over 65. Having looked at the latest documents from the ONS I feel confident easing the lockdown. I've spoken to my parents though about staying in as much as possible though after the lockdown is over, I don't think this is unreasonable.

The upcoming austerity will kill more people than CV. The people we are shielding now will be hit by the brunt of health and social care cutbacks.

Austerity is a political choice.
The government would be better off giving a citizens' universal income for a few months, which would be very easy to implement, wouldn't need much bureaucracy, and most people would spend it immediately, so keeping businesses going and keeping taxes going back into the treasury.

They could raise taxes for the highest earners and get more money back that way. They could invest in better infrastructure, especially in communications and in training for as many people as possible to do more work online.

They could expand the businesses currently making PPE. They could put all their energies into finding accurate tests, and at least trying to isolate the people who have it, and their contacts, and anyone coming into the country. It won't stop it indefinitely without a vaccine, but it'd stop so many people spreading it and lessen the death toll. New Zealand locked down early and has managed to limit their deaths to 11.

They could do a lot of things to keep businesses afloat (especially those of the self-employed, many of us who are falling through the cracks at the moment, and not getting immediate support like employed workers.

They could setup rules so that anyone living in a flat/home without garden or balcony space could be given a pass to go out more frequently. They could make pavements one-way only on each side of the road.
We don't want this to end in the poorest yet again paying the price for a global situation.

We can carry on like this - we're going to have to for a while, thankfully because I'm worried about us going back to 'normal' too fast, but we also need to adapt to make this a more productive time, and use the technology we have to get people able to keep working who are otherwise furloughed or now unemployed.

Even so, the Nightingale hospital has treated 30 patients so far (in the peak of the disease) when it has approx 4,000 beds. I'd suggest that the NHS is nowhere near capacity.

The NHS is currently near capacity despite the fact that thousands of out operations and treatments for other conditions have been cancelled. If lockdown was stopped at this point infections would rise and it would be totally overwhelmed without a doubt.