Overweight risk exaggerated?

[HopelessLayout]

Two facts:

1. 60% of CV-19 patients in intensive care in hospitals are overweight. (NHS)

1. 63.8% of adults in England are overweight. (Public Health England)

As the overall proportion of those seriously ill and overweight is lower than the overall proportion of the general public that is overweight, does that therefore mean that being overweight actually helps protect you if you become ill from CV-19?

Probably not... It depends what the range is. If you've got abdominal visceral fat that is impeding your lungs from working at full capacity, you're at risk.

The range of what?

I’m fat, 65, with damaged lungs so I’m a perfect storm!

I do think that being considerably overweight is a risk with Covid19. I’m fairly fit, do a fair bit of hiking etc but I know that it’s harder for me than it is for a thin person.

I know my lungs aren’t the best but when I’ve been thin(ner) it’s definitely been easier to breathe.

I've just been reading a meta-analysis that found that for pneumonia in general, there is an ‘obesity survival paradox’ (i.e., patient is more likely to survive if obese). (It did say that further studies were required.)

Interesting. Do you have a link? I would expect it to be more.

60% of all UK Covid19 hospital patients, which is probably several thousand?

I would guess either a large fraction of very old but normal weight range patients, or some kind of demographic factor i.e. living in dense cities.

Some of the more severely ill patients will not be going to icu.

This depends on both cases what overweight means.
The general population(NHS)is probably meaning in the overweight BMI group.The ITU patients are probably in the very overweight to obese catagory.

I've just been reading a meta-analysis that found that for pneumonia in general, there is an ‘obesity survival paradox’ (i.e., patient is more likely to survive if obese). (It did say that further studies were required.)

But this is about ICU breakdown rather than survival, correct?

I thought I'd read that obesity is a more significant factor than smoking or age.

The general population(NHS)is probably meaning in the overweight BMI group.The ITU patients are probably in the very overweight to obese catagory.

That sounds plausible.

OP your logic is wrong:

'As the overall proportion of those seriously ill and overweight is lower than the overall proportion of the general public that is overweight, does that therefore mean that being overweight actually helps protect you if you become ill from CV-19?'

63% of gen population in whole UK

has no correlation to

60% of those admitted to hospital with CV

I actually feel like the overweight aspect has been downplayed quite a bit. Overweight and obese people are more likely to have heart issues, diabetes and general ill health which is risky for CV on top of the weight/gravity/organ situation.

does that therefore mean that being overweight actually helps protect you if you become ill from CV-19?
No.
If you have fat on your thighs, bum etc that is a lot safer than fat on your stomach. The more fat there is on your middle, your stomach will push upwards into your lung area restricting the space which your lungs have to occupy. Your lungs will not be able to expand enough. The Less belly fat you have, the better your chances as your lungs can fully inflate with your breath.

As this virus is known to cause respiratory distress, clearly it is better for your lungs to be able to inflate to their greatest extent.

You would need to factor in the % of obesity in the typical age range of covid patients, which is less representative of the whole cross-section of the population and skewed towards the older sector.

@MarginalGain The NHS figures were from
www.thesun.co.uk/news/health-news/11235299/obese-increased-coronavirus-risk-health/

@Underhisi good point…

Southside and Supermarket that makes sense.

The general population(NHS)is probably meaning in the overweight BMI group.

Interestingly the article linked above says anyone with BMI 20–40 is considered in the overweight category and BMI 40+ is considered obese.
Which is not the normal categorisation, I believe.

Another flaw in these stats is that some obese patients won’t be admitted to icu at all because their co-morbidities mean they are unlikely to survive intensive care interventions so they may be underrepresented in the icu population. That 60% you quote in your OP is for intensive care patients not % of overall hospitalised patients or patients testing positive for COVID-19. It is also I believe (although I don’t work in intensive care) more complex and technically challenging to ventilate obese and very obese people.

Research in America has identified obesity as the second biggest risk factor, after age
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8217275/Over-65s-obese-people-likely-hospitalised-coronavirus-cancer-patients.html
Also in France uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-france-confinement/obesity-is-major-covid-19-risk-factor-says-french-chief-epidemiologist-idUKKBN21Q1HR

How many of those in ICU are normal or under weight due to age?

You would need to perform the analysis by age cohort and also to provide sub data e.g. percentage overweight vs population, percentage morbidly obese per population.

I think you'll discovered that the significance will be morbid obesity in younger patients.

We're hearing from USA that a greater proportion of overweight/obese people are dying. I guess we don't currently know the UK death percentage of 30-65 age range where the person was a) overweight b) obese c) morbidly obese. Even if we did, we don't know if they had underlying causes, such as diabetes.

I for one am seriously trying to get my weight down due to CV. I'm in the overweight category now and want to get to BMI 24 which will take around 8 weeks of low carb eating and more exercise.😳

@feelingverylazytoday yikes!

So suffice to say @HopelessLayout , the risks of being overweight are likely not exaggerated.

@Diana you'll be there before the lockdown's over!

I dread what this virus is going to do as it spreads in the southern states of US. Obesity is widespread and not what we would think of as obese, I mean super morbid obesity. Poverty, poor health, poor housing, diabetes. Rural hospitals often without a single ventilator. People still gathering in church.

@Inkpaperstars you're not wrong. And don't forget no free healthcare and lack of health insurance :/

It may not spread as much further south in usa due to vit D?

DianaT1969 Im doing the same ive lost 4 lb so down to about 24bmi now. Still going to keep on though. I think getting out in the sun may have decreased my appetite.

Race combined with bmi might make more difference?
I think too people were saying indian /black people need to mantain a 22bmi to stay clear of diabetes?

The good thing about weight as a risk factor is people can do something about it unlike most of the other factors.
Cdc had bmi 40+ with the other shielding type risks (though dont think they are shielding there).