The rise in 'non Covid related' deaths

[Taddda]

This was mentioned on the news yesterday, we've been talking about it for a couple of weeks.

With people not going to the Gp's, A&E's for anything other than serious emergencies there's surely going to be a massive amount of undiagnosed illnesses.

Personally, I've had an appointment cancelled for (what they think is) abdominal adhesions related to EMCS, but some lumps/cysts were spotted during pregnancy/birth. No real emergency apart from pain and some occasional localised swelling, so cancelled for the foreseeable (after waiting 6 months for the appointment).

I understand my cancellation, but what of others being missed?

Looking at ICU beds there are about 1000 fewer being used for non Covid cases than normal.

These aren't the a&e time wasters but people normally admitted. It's not capacity either as the Beds are free with all the Covid prep. So it's about 1000 critical cases not getting treatment for things like heart problems. Stuck at home not wanting to be a burden or scared to go to hospital in case they get infected.

Very sad & I do think the histrionic rule enforcers are a bit to blame for it.

Sorry, that's what I meant that it's the two week cancer screening that they are still doing.

Thanks @BeetrootRocks I do think memes like that one about A&E being quieter because people are dealing with their "boo-boos" at home have made people less likely to just get in the car and go to A&E with a sick child. I feel ill at the thought of a child dying while their parents are holding on 111.

@thinkaboutittomorrow Not quite - many ICU beds are used by people recovering from surgery, not all of which is emergency surgery. So some of the reduction at least will have been planned for and expected.

There will be a reduction if you think about it.
Everyone testing positive for corona who dies is being recorded as dying from Corona, not pneumonia, flu, cancer, heart attack, stroke, etc.
So gov can make cuts because all these other diseases have dropped, due to the brilliant NHS.

That's just shit isn't it Jack

I work in a dermatology clinic and all our two week wait clinics for suspected cancers are still going ahead as are the minor ops clinics to remove squamous cell carcinomas. Having said that there are far fewer referrals from GPs so people aren't going to their GP
in the first place with their concerns......

There is a mismatch in the figures from the ONS and PHE. they use different source data with PHE relying on registered deaths and death certs. ONS use hospital data.

It takes several weeks for the PHE figures to catch up with reality.

Additionally a study in Bergamo, where the hospitals weren't able to treat everyone due to sheer numbers, showed only a small proportion were confirmed COVID.

We must not forget that we aren't actually testing our citizens in the UK. in fact despite having over 80% of the population of the UK, England had only had 36% of the total tests last week.

Personally I don't trust the figures given that only hospital deaths with suspected COVID are being tested and confirmed. There are many deaths not tested at all.

The figures are open to huge manipulation to avoid panic.

If you want reality look at Equador. Or ask yourself the simple question of why governments across the world are tanking their economies.

*they use different source data with PHE relying on registered deaths and death certs. ONS use hospital data.
*

I think the other way round?

My mums partner has suspected bowel cancer and has had his colonoscopy cancelled and xrays cancelled. He did manage to get a CT scan done though, only just about.

Yup, soz, still a mismatch though

Data shows roughly 40-60% of covid deaths are related to care homes. Therefore the 10% recorded for non-hospital covid deaths is likely too low - isn’t this what a whistleblower was saying on channel 4? Therefore I would imagine most of those additional deaths are covid related deaths.

Sorry I should have said data from other European counties. Certainly it’s over 50% in Ireland which is testing extensively and an article in the guardian states it’s the same in Europe. New York’s figures also jumped massively today following inclusion of non-hospital deaths.

If you look at the NHS website it says that cancer screening is still being carried out and lifesaving operations are still going ahead.

My dad was due to have a biopsy for cancer in the week that lockdown was announced. It was cancelled and he is still waiting.

My friend had an appointment booked for a breast clinic the same week that was also cancelled and still hasn't been re booked.

In regards to the cancer diagnosis/treatments surely any delays are going to have dire repercussions en masse? (This is obviously playing on my mind a little...)

A big problem is/ was lack of ppe. Dm had an uti turned into a kidney infection. She got very weak and dsis called an ambulance. The paramedics arrived without ppe. They came quickly but petrified of catching covid. Because dm had a very high fever that made her delirious. Fever is a known symptom of covid. So we knew they could have refused to take her, but they didn’t and risked their life. Yes, it was only a kidney infection but how were they supposed to know this without testing first. This causes delays, that I assume some people can’t afford and die while waiting for an ambulance.

They even stopped home births in lot of places because of lack of ambulances. So what is going to happen in real emergencies? They will also get delayed. It is common sense. The ambulance services need more money for staff, equipment and ppe. It is not only about patients presenting later, but the time they need to wait for an ambulance has increased.

How many parents are 'home educating' while looking after small children? That will lead to a rise in accidental child deaths and admissions (no-one can do everything and expecting people to try is bonkers, and dangerous).

Proximity and poverty will result in more deaths of women and children from domestic violence.

Proximity and poverty and lack of opportunity for self care will result in more deaths from reckless behaviour and suicide.

It’s not just the lack of physical health treatment, it’s deaths occurring due to many other factors, the alcoholic who can’t get treatment, the mentally ill patient who can’t see their counsellor, the list is extensive and it appears over two thousand extra deaths a week are occurring due to the lack of treatment,

One poster posted on here awhile ago, in how in her small area fourteen patients had committed suicide that they had been unable to treat other than phone consultations.

It’s not all Covid, I’m very saddened that some folks seem to think it’s the be all and end all. It’s not. People die for many many other reasons, and those reasons continue or are getting worse during this period, particularly when help is withdrawn.

Most of these examples are showing exactly why we need to squash the virus to very low levels of circulation in the lockdown and then strongly control it afterwards to avoid having subsequent lockdowns

We can't not afford to have lives put at risk because the NHS becomes overwhelmed, and despite reassurances, it seems that at least in some places it's having to trim too many other services too hard. Staff are working extremely hard trying not to go under

Hi,
I work for a patient safety charity. We are currently working hard to identify gaps that are emerging in health and social care. We need people to share their personal stories and examples so that we can work out who is most at risk due to changes to services etc.
We want to raise awareness with key organisations and leaders so that issues can be addressed quickly and patients with critical needs unrelated to Covid-19, can be protected. We are also looking for examples where services are adapting well to continue to meet the needs of patients locally...so we can share these examples more widely.
If you would like to help us, please do get in touch with us at Patient Safety Learning. Patients and their families will be key in identifying where gaps need to be addressed.
Steph

@Glittercandle @FreyaB84 @Redpurplegreen @ComtesseDeSpair @HoffiCoffi13 @Number3or4
www.pslhub.org/contact-us/

We can't not afford to have lives put at risk because the NHS becomes overwhelmed

I genuinely am starting to wonder what the difference in death toll would be if hospitals were over whelmed v right now when so many people are not getting treatment and between two and three thousand extra people a week are dying because of it.

Right now we aren’t just putting lives at risk, people are dying because of it, in huge numbers.

Mental health, abuse victims, alcoholics, drug addicts, those physically ill. Thousands of them are dying that would not have because of this lock down.

We have to have a balance. Yes we need to control the virus and protect the nhs, but one life is not worth another. We cannot say we will protect the Covid victim but the mentally ill patient will have to die. Which is what’s occurring.

There is also a significant overlap in the Covid death numbers that people are conveniently forgetting about. People who were sadly terminal and would have died. Those who died with corona versus because of it. That math has not yet been done.

What we need clarity on is how many people are dying from other non Covid deaths due to lock down that would otherwise have survived, versus how many people are dying actually because of Covid. Not with it. Because of it. That’s a key distinction.

We need to find that balance. And right now we don’t have it. And we don’t have the data to understand it.

I genuinely am starting to wonder what the difference in death toll would be if hospitals were over whelmed v right now when so many people are not getting treatment and between two and three thousand extra people a week are dying because of it

Yes. It would be vastly different.

Because the number of COVID deaths would rocket, including among HCPs, so many of the ‘controlled’ closures would be happening for other patients, but in a random and more drastic way. Food supply and even water./power would have periodic outages too for a few weeks ifbpeak uncontrolled, and the MH consequences of seeing society nose dive (and the recession be even worse) would be significantly worse,

People still remember the horror of bodies waiting for burial from the Winter of Discontent back in the 70s.

Loosening the attempts to control the spread of the virus will be even worse. And what you seem to be comparing isn’t a fair comparison because it does not allow for worsening of indirect deaths because of
a) greater peak = greater collapse of all healthcare and social services and economy
b) longer recovery period to rebuild services and clear backlogs (as time would be at least as great and starting point would be so much worse)

Because the number of COVID deaths would rocket

Well it didn’t in Sweden did it. And lock down ending is not the same as all restrictions lifting, you can still manage it through restrictions without lock down.

So no it wouldn’t rocket.

2 child deaths attributed to delays in getting medical aid due to CV below.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8223355/amp/Three-year-old-child-dies-mother-kept-hold-NHS-111-HOUR.html

It’s the DM yes so don’t read it if you object.

There's also likely deaths which are not attributed to covid because they're at home or in care homes. Even though gov are getting on it more with care homes. I think many will have been missed.

As pp's have said there will also be people who don't get medical attention because they're scared of catching covid. I think there will also be longer term impacts on diagnosis which show in coming years.