Numbers are climbing but it doesn't seem as bad as Italy - desensitised already?

[BeatrixPottersAlterEgo]

A few weeks ago, when the deaths in Italy rose over 10k,I was horrified. The stories coming out of Italy were really shocking - bodies lying in homes for days because undertakers couldn't get to them, the army transporting coffins, hospital corridors full of people lying on floors.

Why aren't we seeing the same scenes here? Not that anybody wants to of course - but I have a close relative working on a covid ward, and she says that the hospital is otherwise quiet, and although there have been issues with PPE, so far they're managing the admissions well and aren't maxed out the way they expected - though the atmosphere on the ward is surreal and scary in other ways. Yet we're having just as many deaths as Italy, if not more. Although the government could have done much more earlier, has the fact we've been a few weeks behind given us just enough time to prepare so that similar scenes are being avoided, or are they still to come?

Or are we just desensitised because we had that time of seeing what happened in other countries before it kicked off here? I don't mean to start some sort of row, but i feel as though I saw more going on in both social and mainstream media a few weeks ago, but now it's getting to similar levels here, and it's like "here's the death toll for the dah6, moving swiftly on, please don't sunbathe in parks"

Thank you @cathyandclare And do we have any statistics on the numbers discharged? Because i suspect that might make the real difference.

For what it's worth, I've been working o. the covid wards and there are many many people over the age of 70 who are actually making a full recovery from covid-19 and being discharged home. We have 3 wards for covid patients requiring ward based care, a ward for people suspected of having it where they stay until they have the test results. and itu obviously. Were not full either yet and the nightingale hospital in cardiff hasn't even been used yet

I don’t think helicopters would be transporting bodies. I thought they weren’t even taking positive patients because pilots can’t wear PPE whilst flying?
Also seems uneconomical.

Weird, all the reports of aircraft over London. Wonder what's going on? Surveillance?

@Snaleandthewhail can you explain more about ambulance and industrial site? Yesterday I saw an ambulance tucked away in small industrial side road and it came out followed by what looked like a catering van. I did think it odd. Sorry if I’m missing the obvious. Is it that clandestine operations are happening to transfer bodies and the system is overwhelmed so relying on other services

Another one here hearing helicopters go over almost daily, in the daytime though - I’m in cheshire. It started about 3 weeks ago and my thought was it’s possibly for the purpose of checking how many people are out and about (aerial cameras) to see if people obeying lockdown?

Dh did scoff at me though!

Ok, nerdy alert, there is a free app called Freedar.uk that shows military and police air traffic As well as commercial aircraft. Obvs you don’t know the purpose of the trips.

We get chinooks overhead frequently and I’d always wondered where they came from.

Yes I think so, we have ‘beat’ Italy for daily death tolls a couple of times. We are on track to over take them. When it was over there, it was a national disaster in the press. Over here, makeshift hospitals are going up, nearly 1000k a day dead, makeshift morgues going up in hospitals, older people being left to die alone. All people seem obsessed with, the press included is when schools will re open. Absolutely no perspective, that said I think a lot of it is trying to deflect from how unprepared we really are and the figures themselves.

My neighbour is a respiratory doctor in the large hospital in our city. He has full PPE available and says the wards are not filling up as much as expected. They're currently over staffed.

We've been told we're a week or two behind Italy for ages and yet days and weeks go by without any of the chaotic and horrific scenes materialising. The doom mongers keep saying yes but wait one more week etc...

I'm not sure. I'm genuinely hopeful it just won't be like that at all, and that we will manage with the capacity we have.

My best friend is a Nurse in ICU near a major northern city. She says they still have spare beds and plenty of staff. She feels the hospital has been amazingly organised and prepared and is proud to be part of it.

I just wonder if the govt are over preparing or if they are still predicting we are not near the peak!?

The UK is showing the highest number of deaths in Europe and is still trending upwards

Yes and another thing. I dont understand the media point of comparing the USA to individual European countries, that all have a much lower population.

A better comparison would be between Europe and the USA

think it is worth remembering that people die every day under normal circumstances. Yes there are increased deaths at the moment but many would have died anyway.
I think they were saying b yesterday that the v death rate is double v what it usually is at this time of year. So the people who would have died anyway are dying as well as additional.people and people who wouldn't have died if they had gone to hospital but were too scared to go.

re: BoJo, I’ve been having regular contact through work conversations with someone who wasn’t hospitalised with but has had the classic symptoms of COVID-19. Its been a month and she still can’t have a conversation without pausing for breaths half way through. From what I’ve read this seems typical. But I’m also aware of cases (my sister lives in Italy, these are tested cases) where the virus has caused hardly any breathing issues but major gastric problems. I just think he looked very well considering his state. Would rather he have spoken from his pjs.

The industrial estate episode was fb hearsay but I was slightly involved in emergency planning 12 years ago, and plans for what to do with bodies If funeral directors and hospital morgues filled up. Some areas (E London) have built temporary facilities or used ice rinks, We don’t have a local ice rink, so 2/3 ambulances outside an anonymous industrial unit providing temporary storage for coffins seems feasible.

I just wonder if the govt are over preparing or if they are still predicting we are not near the peak!?

I think you have to bear in mind that what we are seeing at the moment are hospitalisations having been in lockdown for 3 weeks. Would we have spare capacity right now if we had delayed any further? I highly doubt it.

I have no doubt that temporary morgs are set up, was there not talk of Birmingham Airport being used, but I seriously doubt that helicopters are being used to transport bodies it just doesn't make economic sense.

Another really odd thought is if its killing many frail elderly does that mean that the numbers who die over the winter will drop in 2020/22?

There was a graph on the news yesterday, I think Sky, comparing deaths in 2019 to deaths in 2020. You could clearly see a spike of excess deaths in the relevant months of 2020.

Every death is registered, it doesn't matter if we do not know the actual cause of each death because it's obvious that the vast majority of these excess deaths are due to coronavirus.

Also different areas will be more affected than others. One NHS worker might say they havent noticed a large amount of cases or that their hospital is not unduly affected but someone from a different area, London, Birmingham or Sheffield for example, might well say the opposite.

The army helicopters will probably be delivering supplies. Medicine or other needed cargo. There are factories in different parts of the country making things like portable sinks or parts for various hospital equipment. This cargo will be being moved to where it is needed the most at the moment

That makes more sense for the army to be moving supplies around.

I think we might turn out have one of the worst rates anyway @CheekyWeeGobshite regardless.

It was interesting to see a comparison of the front pages from when the papers were talking about Italy (tragedy, what is happening, poor Italy, the world is weeping with you, what could they have done to avoid this, why was the Italian govt so late to see what was happening) and the day in the UK with the highest death toll reported (last week) everything is going to plan, Nightingale, Boris feels better, social distancing is working.

Regarding the Italian bodies left in houses: if we mean the Gomorrah actor whose sister died of Covid, then after he'd been all over social media, the local authorities contacted him and collected her body. Apparently it was a misunderstanding because he thought the ambulance would alert the funeral home and the ambulance thought he would. So nobody did.

was there not talk of Birmingham Airport being used,

The temporary morgue at Birmingham Airport is being used.

Our local crematoria are running 24/7

People are dying in huge numbers, but we aren't seeing the scenes from Italy because for half of our deaths which occur in care homes we aren't even bothering to admit them to hospital in the first place, we just allow them die where they are. Media don't cover the surge in deaths if there aren't any shocking visuals to go with it

Far fewer care homes in Italy. There's much more responsibility on the young to take care of elderly relatives themselves. Hence they would have been in the hospitals

Most of the cases in Italy are in a very small area with a small number of hospitals overwhelmingly affected. Imagine around 90% of Uk cases would be in the Birmingham area.

I also think the press has a role to play and in the Uk the focus for quite a few days has been on Boris not on the general people dying.

Italy is a Catholic country and I believe puts more emphasis on keeping people going - sanctity of life. Whereas in the U.K, we are more inclined to recognise that if you put an 80 year old on a ventilator, they’re going to have a horrible time and a terrible quality of life afterwards. Realistically anyone over 70 is likely to suffer long term deficits after ventilation, if they survive at all. But it is possible that this more pragmatic approach avoids the desperate scenes in Italy. And of course, it may be why we ultimately have higher deaths in care homes. The reality is that dying in a care home is probably a “better” death than dying in somewhere like the excel centre. Furthermore intubating a very old person with Covid carries a serious risk to NHS staff. In this country, we keep talking about protecting the NHS but also get furious that 80 year olds are dying in care homes. These two things are not necessarily compatible.

I think we will be the worst hit country in Europe, we're already holder of 'most deaths in a day' but the reality is far worse because deaths in care homes aren't being included.

No government wants its citizens to realise that their country has come out worst because it looks bad for the government so clearly they aren't going to dwell on the numbers. But why the press aren't making people aware - I cannot fathom. The BBC news website shows lots of links to news stories but rarely do any of these headlines include the death number - you have to go looking for it.