Numbers are climbing but it doesn't seem as bad as Italy - desensitised already?

[BeatrixPottersAlterEgo]

A few weeks ago, when the deaths in Italy rose over 10k,I was horrified. The stories coming out of Italy were really shocking - bodies lying in homes for days because undertakers couldn't get to them, the army transporting coffins, hospital corridors full of people lying on floors.

Why aren't we seeing the same scenes here? Not that anybody wants to of course - but I have a close relative working on a covid ward, and she says that the hospital is otherwise quiet, and although there have been issues with PPE, so far they're managing the admissions well and aren't maxed out the way they expected - though the atmosphere on the ward is surreal and scary in other ways. Yet we're having just as many deaths as Italy, if not more. Although the government could have done much more earlier, has the fact we've been a few weeks behind given us just enough time to prepare so that similar scenes are being avoided, or are they still to come?

Or are we just desensitised because we had that time of seeing what happened in other countries before it kicked off here? I don't mean to start some sort of row, but i feel as though I saw more going on in both social and mainstream media a few weeks ago, but now it's getting to similar levels here, and it's like "here's the death toll for the dah6, moving swiftly on, please don't sunbathe in parks"

@RogueV our trust is the same...well prepared and now coping well.

I think it is worth remembering that people die every day under normal circumstances. Yes there are increased deaths at the moment but many would have died anyway.

I think a lot of it is due to geographical location of outbreaks. The large centres of outbreak in the U.K. started in London and Birmingham. Both major cities with a lot of capacity to accommodate ill patients, with private hospitals nearby and with facilities to build make shift hospitals. Crucially we have had time to gear up and learn from other countries.

The epicentre is in Bergamo in Italy. This is a large town rather than a city. It’s 30 miles from Milan. Other hot spots being around ski resorts etc. Again, there will be a lack of facilities in these locations and limited possibilities to expand bed capacity.

I don't think the nightingale will go wasted. Don't lye on your laurels yet.
London admissions have levelled but I don't think nationally we've reached the peak. I hope I'm wrong.
Don't get complacent. Keep you and yours safe including all community members 🙏 💙

Monty
I agree. This this is the first wave. Private hospitals have been temporarily annexed. At some stage they will be private again (July possibly) and the nightingales may be used more in the second wave if not in the first. Hospitals will be geared up and we may find the nightingales taking on all or most of the Covid patients depending on how the logistics develop.

Time to prepare has to be the biggest factor. Cancelling non urgent operations and outpatient clinics. But this isn't over yet.

The UK is showing the highest number of deaths in Europe and is still trending upwards

Someone posted on a local fb group ambulances unloading in a local industrial park. I assume that unit had refrigerated capacity.

“Most of these people would have died anyway” - I’d course the young exceptions grab the headlines, but the ONS data yesterday demonstrated they wouldn’t have died when they did.

It is happening, but last week, which was possibly the week of the first peak (we’ll have to wait and see) the mainstream media was dominated with one individual’s journey into hospital and out again. An individual who managed to speak for five minutes without catching his breath on discharge, which seems unusual.

We are being spun, but none of us knows how much.

Im not sure all is well on the home front. Is it perhaps to do with our reporting? From other threads it looks like other cojntries are stating that we sre downplaying covid figures/not accurstely reporting.

Our press sensationalised other countries stpries presumably other countries will be about where we are?

I expect there's an element of densisitisation too, where we have heard avout this for so long. Masks in other cojntires seemed shocking, queues for food seemed shocking, people not leaving homes seemed shocking, people singing in streeta was news. All of this and more is happenig here now but doesnt seem shocking as its now our "normal" perhaps!?

Snale - thats it we're being spun. But who knows by how much. And who knows if unleashing "The harsh truth" would even help if it lead to riots and all sorts (not that im normally one for lies at all, just aware how the estate around me is coping. )

Squashed at the uk government daily press conference comparisons are often made with France, but there the care home deaths are now included in the statistics (from around the 3rd April) and they aren't in the published UK data so that helps the UK look better than it is.

Our figures aren't correct. Lots of cases don't get reported and I'm worried that the actual figures are way higher than we know.

All countries seem have decided different ways of recording deaths, the decision should really have come from WHO. But then all the care home deaths are being ignored due to lack of testing....Manufacturing of more tests takes time annoyingly

Its a catch 22, make people too scared and they panic buy like we saw when Italy was at its peak. Don't make people scared enough and they riot at being locked down.

I love the way NZ have handled it all however i don't believe you'd have had the same level of compliance here if we had locked down earlier. Just look at the people who CHOSE to go to crufts and Cheltenham.

It's the care homes that frighten me. I worry for the patients and staff - utterly terrifying.

In the week 28 March - 3 April, more than 16,000 people died in Britain. This is about 6,000 more than average for the time of year. (Source: www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/world/coronavirus-news-world-global-live.amp.html )

From what I understand it's grim in the NHS but they're still coping- that's directly from ITU staff in urban centres. So the planning, expansion of ITU beds and retraining/repurposing of staff has helped. Hopefully the excess Nightingale capacity will prevent scenes like Italy/Spain over the next week or so.

The numbers are still climbing, esp out of London and the ventilation results aren't good. However, the teams will be learning more about the disease and the best way to support breathing all the time.

The deaths are horrific but the NHS system seems to be managing, so far at least. The makeshift morgues sound terrible, but at least it's organised and planned and more respectful than some of the reported scenes.

Snaleandthewhail

I’ve had suspicious thoughts over this and can’t put my finger on it

The care home crisis will sadly become more evident over the next couple of weeks I fear. The ONS figures are to April 3rd and they're shocking enough. But there's a lag and, at that stage, if people died in the community without recently seeing a GP they would have had a post mortem. So, that delays the death certificate.

But Germany seem to have certainly got something right. It's showing up the inadequacies of our government.

More time to prepare.
More DNR perhaps and less people sent to hospital perhaps and staying in care homes? I’m presuming Italy didn’t have the info on the bad outcome from ventilators, I remember a lot of the pain from doctors seemed to be from having to take ventilators from older people whereas in the UK that choice is made earlier and more accepted? Also deaths being more hidden in care homes whereas in Italy the old people were living with their families.

Wtf @Titsywoo?! How can they claim to have opened all these new 'hospitals' without any staff?! A hospital is its staff, in many ways! That might be the maddest thing i've read in the whole crisis.

Come and drive around Compton in Leeds and you will see why our death rates will carry on escalating. It's business as usual there. Apparently when the police split up the gatherings they just run round the corner and congregate again! This will also be happening in areas of London, Manchester, Birmingham etc.

I believe the nightingale hospitals were mainly built for second and third waves. This will go on until a vaccine is available and that is some time away.

I agree with pp- time to prepare services, geographical outbreaks in big urban centres, we are mentally prepared for large numbers of deaths from seeing Italy.

I think it's very quiet on reporting what's going on inside hospitals here. There were pictures of rows of people on ventilators in Italy, I've not seen anything like that from the UK. The amount of Nhs staff that have died from this should also be better reported, it's shocking.

I don't understand how 1/2 of patients admitted to hospital are dying and yet we're being told the NHS is 'coping'. Those death rates aren't signs of a system 'coping' at all! Survival rates are much better in other countries so clearly we're making huge mistakes. How can people be so calm and accepting of all this?

1 in 2 people in hospital aren't dying. Those were the early figures from ITUs. Ventilation results are not good, and it's not just the UK that are finding that. I think in NY they have also produced results showing very poor outcomes for ventilated patients.