Cases increasing in north west and north east

[Ciwirocks]

Does anyone know why hospital admissions are continuing to increase in the north west and north east and stabilising elsewhere? I understand that when this started London was 2 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK but if we all locked down at the same time then surely the effects of this will show at the same time? I really don’t think that it’s due to people not adhering to guidelines, buses where I am are empty and everyone I know is a key worker or are working from home/ furloughed etc. I just don’t understand it but as I live in these areas it’s obviously worrying.

Certainly in Cumbria's case there's a suspicion that it's because people keep 'escaping' to their second homes in the Lake District and coming here for days out to go walking.

I know of 2 localish farmers (both over 65) that have died from it, and another who is very seriously unwell in ICU. Given that farmers generally are pretty isolated there's a real worry that it's people spreading it to them whilst they out exercising.

People are getting really really angry and the police are stopping cars if they suspect them to be day trippers etc.

Yes they've been increasing quite a lot in the North West and Yorkshire/North East this week

Though its always been quite high numbers in Sheffield and the first confirmed case in the UK was in York.

I understand the possible increase in Cumbria and I am glad the police are stopping cars. It doesn’t explain why Liverpool and Manchester are continuing to increase though. The constant fear of things getting worse is sending my anxiety through the roof.

Did you see the map released by GM Police of almost 700 social gatherings they’d broken up? Add that to the ones they didn’t get to and that’s a lot of idiots.

I suspect a lot of transmission is occurring in hospitals. Without availability of testing, healthcare staff have no way of knowing whether they themselves have the virus or which of their patients do.

"doesn’t explain why Liverpool and Manchester are continuing to increase though."

Didn't the police have to break up huge numbers of parties?
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So people are not obeying rules?

Be interesting to have travel and movement stats broken down by area...by lockdown people in London and the south were perhaps more scared ?

And also to understand the proportions of WFH/key worker/furloughed/as normal by region also? I think in London and the south east a greater proportion of jobs that can be done from home?

It’s mainly to do with the lag between coming into contact with the virus and becoming critical ill and dying. So when they talk about London being ahead that’s because people infected had already started to show up in hospital in large numbers. But if the virus was circulating already in a part of the country then many people would have it, be passing it to other people in their household but it would still take 2-3 weeks to feed through into notable numbers of people critical ill. So the time page will be the most significant explanation.

The cases we are seeing now are those that caught it before lockdown.

Also(and being very honest here) it still seems fairly unreal up here, something that is happening to others but not that much to us.

Where I am in the North West it appears absolutely no one is taking social distancing and staying in own house seriously. Everyone's just in and out of each other's houses and kids playing together where brother in law lives, when I've gone for a walk there small groups of teenagers or two mums out walking with their kids.

They won't stop until someone in their own family does from it

oblomov Liverpool has the highest rate of compliance to the lockdown according to reports last week

OP its because the government thought it acceptable to let tens of thousands of Madrid fans flood into Liverpool when this was all kicking off. That decision has cost lives and someone should be held accountable for it.

I live on the coast in the North East and while there's definitely been a decrease in visitor numbers recently, three weeks ago it was like a bank holiday weekend here...

But why would people in the NW be taking restrictions less seriously? I suspect it’s more to do with the lag and the fact our cases starting increasing a lot after London.

The figures for transport etc are available from Google by area

Also(and being very honest here) it still seems fairly unreal up here, something that is happening to others but not that much to us.

Although there might be something in this too actually

I work in A&E in the north west and we've said from the beginning we're about 2 weeks behind London and the South so we're not surprised and have planned for our surge to be in the next week to 10 days.
Not sure why in terms of what the reasons are other than geography and space but yeah we (at least in my place of work) are not surprised and have been gearing up for it (I fact we were ready for it to be this weekend, but it definitely hasn't been a surge and we're now we'll prepared for the next few weekends to be our toughies)

My Mum is in rural Cumbria. The only person she knows with it is an elderly woman now admitted to hospital, who appears to have caught it from a visiting carer.

Neighbours in their 70s still carrying on as usual with adult children and grandchildren visiting.

It feels very remote but lots of leaflets through the door about support for shopping etc.

I haven’t heard local reports of parties being broken up but it’s a possibility I suppose. I don’t know anyone who isn’t taking the guidelines very seriously and yes I agree that heads should roll for allowing the Madrid game to go ahead, that and Cheltenham 😡

The people who are seriously ill are about 10 to 14 days into their infection. some are 2 weeks on ventilators already. Incubation is 2 to 3 weeks . So what we are seeing now is those affected before lockdown started. 3 day cheltenham festival. Large stereophonics concert, Madrid match. Last night beanie in the pub before lockdown and all those lockdown parties. overcrowding in supermarkets as people panic bought. There was plenty of opportunity for people to spread this around pre lockdown. We still got another 1 to 2 weeks of increasing deaths though we should hopefully see hospital admissions tail off earlier than that and that would show lockdown is having an effect.

Purely anecdotal so no scientific basis whatsoever but I'm in the south and have family in the north-west and it's as if we are living in a parallel universe - it's very quiet where I live and people genuinely seem to be respecting the rules whereas we spoke to Parents (in their 80s) who tell us they pop to the newsagents everyday for the paper; DB is back at work again despite less a week ago saying he was poorly (upset tummy and achey/fatigued for 3-4 days); two cousins met up for a BBQ with their families yesterday and nephew (14) spends most of the day out and about on his bike with his mates . They won't listen to reason or argument so if they're attitude is indicative of an entire area (joke - sort of!) I'm not surprised.

The reason for the large number of cases in the North West must surely be that thousands of Madrid football fans were allowed to fly into Liverpool for the game on 11th March.
By then, Madrid was known to be the centre of the Spanish outbreak, and the Madrid football stadium was already closed.
Spanish schools were already closed, and the WHO issued a Pandemic notification that day, but still the fans came.

Sheer madness.

Where I am in the NW (on the coast) we seem to be complying quite well. I've no idea about the rest of the area as I've not been anywhere to notice!

I work in Liverpool though, and the city centre / tourist areas were heaving with Madrid fans on the day of the match (they almost all had a team scarf on, which helped identify them!). I'm not surprised there's a surge of cases now as it was utter stupidity to let them come, quite frankly.

North east here. Everyone is taking it seriously and I think far more compliant with the lockdown than areas Ive seen on the news. Its deserted.

But.. I was at hospital about a month ago and the place was full of suspected cases. They werent testing at all at that point. I think its the lag catching up.

Mymadworld that’s not my experience at all, I have got elderly parents who haven’t left the house since about a week before lockdown began. There will always be the odd groups of people who think they can do as they please I suppose that happens everywhere.

@Willyoujustbequiet I'm in the NE too, and I agree it's so quiet.
I did notice on the BBC news last week they showed a graph which reported that there was a downward trend of cases all over which was reported as good news...they did NOT mention the very obvious one spike on the graph which was labelled the North East and I did wonder why it wasn't mentioned.
I'll see if I can find the image.