Are you going to send your kids back in when they reopen?

[Keepdistance]

Wondering if people will send them back.
As they think only 4-10% of population might have had it. And this peak was only 4w of school.
Im not shielding but isolating as much as possible because im
asthmatic.

I hope they say attendance isnt mandatory so people who need to/want to or are still WFH can keep them home if needed.

Oh and there is some macaque study done mid March which states that they were unable to be reinfected once recovered. But the new evidence from S Korea should indeed worry us all

@bool there are some initial studies showing that some people infected do not develop immunity, including some who are very ill. TBH they are too new to know if it will stand up to scrutiny.
That is why it is a theory. No one knows. And no immunity is not developed to all corona virus. One remains dormant and can be reactivated in times of stress.
Policies around health should be evidence based.

Ok so we are starting to agree. Herd immunity is indeed a better case scenario then us all getting it and then being able to be reinfected and it mutating every year. I am praying that we are immune once having it and that herd immunity will indeed work.

We have a child at nursery and he won't be returning. I am medically vulnerable and so placing myself at immense risk by going into school. This year I have been so ill with the various bugs bought home from nursery. We also stopped DS from going to nursery as soon as we had concerns in this country about the virus.

Yes. Ds will be the first Pupil to arrive that morning and the very last one to be collected 😂

And if we don’t generate immunity once catching it then a vaccine is going to be extremely hard to find.

So what’s the answer, we sit at home and wait for a vaccine, for 2 years, what sort of life is that?

@bool If the aim is to go for herd immunity a lot of people will die. The government estimate is that only 10% of the country have had it.

@gin96 exactly. I don’t know what @alloutoffucks proposes is the solution.

The answer is test, contact trace and isolate. WHO have been saying this for a long time,

Of course we need to be testing more.

If we can test 100000 by end of April then that will help. (I am dubious)

But it is clearly we need to do.

Test who, everyone?

@Bool... the NHS can't cope with hardly anything. If 100 is letting the virus rip, and 0 is preventing all spread, then the amount that the NHS can cope with in summer is about 3 and in winter is about 2. The finesse that it would take to let the virus spread just enough, but not too much, is something we do not have at all. Right now, we have about three or four settings, ranging from do eff all, through wash-your-hands, and onto what we are doing now. There is no "achieve immunity safely in a period of four months" setting. There is pretty much STOP and GO. That's it. It doesn't matter what the intent of the government is, they just don't have tools subtle enough at this point in time to differentiate between one goal and the other.

@alloutoffucks yes we need to test. Of course we do. But it won’t stop the outbreak now. It has spread too far. But anyway we can agree to differ.

@nellodee I agree with you

@alloutoffucks exactly - NPIs

Not praying, not blind faith in a vaccine or herd immunity. Where is there an evidence base, on the ground experiential basis to justify this approach?

@Bool please present evidence based research of natural herd immunity to a Coronavirus so we can follow the link.

And how many times do we test, once a week? Not everyone show symptoms.

Okay so the only other "solution" is a lot of people die? We just accept that then?
Because if only 10% have been infected, then a lot more would die. We would be nowhere near our peak.

We cannot stay at home for 2 years and continue to pay nurses and teachers. The state would run out of money.

I honestly don't know whether I would. Mine are asthmatic.

@alloutoffucks

'However difficult not going to school is, having a parent die is much more difficult for a child.'

You do realise 1000s of kids have a parent die every year anyway? Keeping schools shut due to coronavirus isn't going to stop that.

If it's reactivation then countries like NZ cant let people in who have previously had it...
Im hoping it's more that the testing for recovery is not entirely accurate.
As anyway china had 80k people+ infected so surely some of those would have sparked new outbreaks.
Thing is too herd only works if the people are surviving but 8k here have already died so fewer immune.

I think too the icu stats showed most people had no severe underlying conditions. And obviously there are all age ranges in hospitals with this. So whilst technically some people feel safe, there is still quite a risk.
Gov were also wrong in not telling people to shield immediately those dying now are those who waited.
Imo teachers would be at a similar risk as dr/nurses etc but without ppe at all. 30kids in 1 room is a lot. In S korea 1 person spread it to thousands so that could be the whole school and if the initial dose you get makes a difference then teachers and kids would be getting a big one especially as they wont close when someone gets ill. After a couple of weeks CV would be all over the classrooms.

@Bool I think that's a pleasant first! I think if anything the government strategy right now is trying to find out "If we do this, what happens." And I think they are interested as much in whether they will have riots as whether they will need pop-up morgues.

My personal plan would not be getting kids back into schools, but recruiting as many university age students as possible to work in the fields getting our crops in. I think that might end up being a pretty positive experience for a lot of them, that they would look back at making history when they were older.

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain errrr this has never happened before so there is no evidence for it. We simply should be praying that once we catch this we develop immunity. There is a macaque study published mid March which suggest that yes immunity is developed. But as I have already said the recent news from S Korea of people testing positive again is worrying. I am hoping that is because of the virus hiding and re emerging or false negative tests.

Yes it is likely that our solution will be accepting that a lot of people will die.
1500 people die in the UK on an average day. Lots of people die always.
Corona mortality rate is looking likely to be somewhere around 0.39%. Maybe as high as 1% (we won't know for a while).
So yes, it will come to be the case that we accept that more people will die from this new disease. That has always been accepted.
The main aim has been to keep deaths to a level where the NHS could cope not to have no deaths. Not to have no one for from it (that could only maybe be achieved with a vaccine).