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Worse than Italy

68 replies

Fatasfooook · 09/04/2020 00:38

The latest daily number of UK COVID19 deaths matched Italy’s worst day, yet we’re told we are still a week or more away from our peak. Doesn’t that imply a worse ultimate death toll than Italy, even though we had several weeks to learn from them?

OP posts:
CherryPavlova · 09/04/2020 08:35

Logoplanter Really sorry, I can’t share the source as it’s work related.
Data is from London and South. One trust had no visors and very few surgical gowns. Others reported shortages of adequate PPE. Guidance on PPE was changed to reflect what was available rather than international standard.

Two trusts said shortages of sedating drugs. Most are saying oxygen shortages - one trust had a projected need for later this week of 147 outlets but had only 50 at time of reporting.

NHSE guidance relaxed around staffing ratios. The ITU nurses will be supported by two HCAs but the idea of a HCAs managing ventilated patients doesn’t inspire confidence in outcomes.

On the plus side other ED attendances are low. Fewer heart attacks. Fewer RTAs. Fewer industrial injuries. More trampoline injuries though.

Doyoumind · 09/04/2020 08:37

Just looking at the number of deaths doesn't tell us anything. France's population is a similar size to ours but Italy's is smaller and Spain's is considerably smaller. Many European countries have populations smaller than London.

Nquartz · 09/04/2020 08:44

There's a thread called something like 'daily stats, numbers & graphs' which has a wealth of data, graphs, analysis etc.

There so many different ways to read the data available & there are some really smart people on there explaining everything

Aposterhasnoname · 09/04/2020 08:48

Meanwhile we’re told Boris is in good spirits and sitting up chatting in an ITU bed. Either that’s a lie and sitting chatting means his pupils are reacting to light or he is wasting an ITU bed that someone else needs.

Horse shit, no one said he’s sitting up chatting, they’ve said he’s engaging positively. My DD spent three weeks in intensive care, some of it on a cpap rather than a ventilator, and right at the end just an oxygen mask, and she could certainly sit up and positively engage. This meant she could tell them she was uncomfortable, co operate when they needed her in a certain position etc. Engaging positively does not mean they’re discussing the extended works of Shakespeare. FFS.

larrygrylls · 09/04/2020 08:53

Comparing countries is very unreliable as different countries are testing different amounts of people at different times in the disease.

In addition, a lot of mortality depends on demographics. If, as a first world country, you are good at keeping people alive into their9th and 10th decades, a lot will succumb to Covid should they get it. Is this a tragedy? Ultimately they have to die of something and my guess is that Covid is kinder than a lot of cancers or living with chronic COPD for years. I suspect 3rd world countries with young populations will have far lower mortality rates.

We have chosen to have an underfunded NHS for years, and also have invested considerable resources into helping people deal with poor life choices (alcoholism, morbid obesity and the concomitant diabetes and smoking). We also support arguable non essentials such as fertility treatment and ‘gender reassignment’.

You could argue all the above choices are the marks of a progressive, compassionate society but they are choices and the money could have been put into ICUs and additional acute care.

We have also chosen to have a relatively relaxed life style compared to other parts of the first world such as the US (with 2-3 weeks paid holiday a year) and parts of Asia. Again this leaves us with less GDP per capita to spend on things like preparing for pandemics.

It is a simplistic conversation to say we have got it wrong and should have been more prepared until you consider what you would have sacrificed to be more prepared. We can only ‘make more money available’ if we have more money or sacrifice something else that we hold dear.

And, finally, FWIW, I suspect we are peaking/have peaked in terms of new infections. Clearly, total infections and deaths will lag this. Imperial believe that the infection rate reached well below 1 after lockdown and our chief scientific officer is cautiously optimistic (and he probably has the best fall real time data).

jomaIone · 09/04/2020 08:58

Boris is the bloody Prime Minister. He is top priority so will likely be on ITU as a precaution rather than for need. Raab or whoever said yesterday he was sitting up chatting.

dontdisturbmenow · 09/04/2020 09:07

Day death is not a good indicator of the crisis getting worse. What is is number of admissions with Covid diagnosis and this is showing the hoped for fall to a point of stability. This is a good indicator that death rates should start to reduce too in the coming week.

EricaNernie · 09/04/2020 09:39

I wonder if the improved air quality will help.
apparently Northern Italy has a bad air quality anyway, due to being in a valley.

thatgingergirl · 09/04/2020 09:50

larrygrylls - thank you for that reasoned post. I agree with all you've said.

Newgirls · 09/04/2020 09:52

We have a larger population!

Wannabangbang · 09/04/2020 10:01

Unfortunately we locked down far to late thanks to that slimey scientist guy so yes i think we are heading for an even worse death toll that Italy.

Cheltenham races, the last night of pubs being open. All those people in a sardine can, a disaster waiting to happenConfused

cz123 · 09/04/2020 10:13

They had it concentrated in one region though, ours is spread out.

oldbeforem · 09/04/2020 10:16

@Logoplanter

I agree with you but some posters on here have been obsessed with us ‘tracking Italy’ for weeks and are desperately looking for evidence that we will end up worse. It’s a pandemic, it’s awful and no one want it’s but people will die.

Inniu · 09/04/2020 10:20

7% of deaths being non hospital seems low. Are people being transferred to hospital very quickly from nursing homes if they have Covid symptoms and are struggling?

I had thought the figures would be closer to Ireland’s which are I think 20-25% outside hospital. My understanding is that a lot of these are in nursing homes where residents have previously stated they don’t want hospital admission or invasive treatment.

Floralnomad · 09/04/2020 10:20

Why does it ultimately matter which country has more deaths it’s not a competition , we probably will end up with loads because people here can’t do what they are told to do and stay at home .

Ifeel1000yearsold · 09/04/2020 10:25

Our population isn’t much larger than Italy. 66 million compared to 60.

Floralnomad · 09/04/2020 10:43

It’s also not just about not locking down quickly enough Greater Manchester police have released the figures for last weekend and it’s appalling how many parties and gatherings they had to break up .

theschoolonthehill · 09/04/2020 10:46

because people here can’t do what they are told to do and stay at home

People were given conflicting advice. It went from ‘herd mentality’ to lockdown. Other countries looked at the UK in astonishment when the only advice given was to wash hands. It was like a strange experiment and I think many of us looked on with somewhat incredulous hope that just maybe the UK ‘expert scientists’ were right even though we were not risking it ourselves.

In the UK people tend to follow their leader. A very small number, it seems, made up their own minds to stop their children going to school. Maybe it was because they issue fines in the UK for non attendance. From reading other threads, if the schools opened tomorrow, many would wave their children off citing the children dislike social isolation and the economy is more important than a thousand people a day dying. It is a way of thinking I am unable to process.

MereDintofPandiculation · 09/04/2020 10:56

cherrypavlova I said the same about Boris I'm sure there's more to it and he wouldn't be on ICU unless he was on a ventilater. They say he can sit up and speak to doctors, and this is an improvement. I can't recall us having been told at any time that he was unable to sit up or to talk to doctors. I'm not at all sure we can believe anything we're told.

We have to remember we're not adults to be informed, we're "the general population" whose behaviour and reactions have to be controlled, and that means being very considered in what we're told and when. We'll be told what the government thinks will cause us to behave in the way they wish.

theschoolonthehill · 09/04/2020 10:58

We have to remember we're not adults to be informed, we're "the general population" whose behaviour and reactions have to be controlled, and that means being very considered in what we're told and when. We'll be told what the government thinks will cause us to behave in the way they wish.

Exactly.
This is the clearest explanation I have ever read on MN.

Newgirls · 09/04/2020 11:06

So true!

I don’t think any of us will be wishing our kids back next week! The debates on here seem to be focused on what might happen at may half term. We are mostly a very sensible and cautious lot!

Baaaahhhhh · 09/04/2020 11:19

Our mortality figures are far worse per capita than any other European nation

Incorrect.

KeepWashingThoseHands · 09/04/2020 11:26

Worldometre is showing the UK as 9th in the 'league table' of deaths per 1M.

Baaaahhhhh · 09/04/2020 11:30

KeepWashingThoseHands Yes, I am trying to link the chart, but failing miserably. Thanks for backing me up Grin.

KeepWashingThoseHands · 09/04/2020 11:45

Not good with links on this phone but in terms of direct comparisons I read it like this:

Spain #2 with 326 deaths p/1M
Italy #4 with 292
UK #9 with 105

So you could say the death rate in the UK is one-third (ish) that of Spain and Italy - so far.

Not saying that means all our policies and responses are optimal.

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