Worse than Italy

[Fatasfooook]

The latest daily number of UK COVID19 deaths matched Italy’s worst day, yet we’re told we are still a week or more away from our peak. Doesn’t that imply a worse ultimate death toll than Italy, even though we had several weeks to learn from them?

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

have reported blatantly iffy advertising spam

[Druidlookingidiot]

ZOMBIE THREAD

[Newgirls]

Thanks Canterbury

[TheCanterburyWhales]

No point looking at total deaths for reasons given (population differences, ways of reporting/recording death differently etc etc)

You need to look at % of total infections primarily. Though these figures will also be skewed by testing numbers. The UK has the second highest mortality rate of those infected after Italy, with the Netherlands in iirc third place. If you factor in Italy having more than double the recorded positive cases, that figure (for the UK) isn't as horrific as it seems, as there is less testing going on, and therefore fewer positive results being recorded. But Italy has peaked, the UK has not. So, it's all just an evolution of numbers.

I recommend, as others have said, the graphs thread for those interested in objective analysis.

It's to be noted too, that very few of the 980 deaths in the UK announced yesterday were in the last few days. They are still reporting deaths from almost a week ago.

[GoldDay]

'Either that’s a lie and sitting chatting means his pupils are reacting to light or he is wasting an ITU bed that someone else needs.'

I doubt any Intensivist would waste an ICU bed regardless of who it was for. It is perfectly feasible that he had an arterial line in (that cannot be managed on a ward) to monitor his pH, oxygen and CO2. Patients can stay 'borderline' for a day or 2 and it is isn't unheard of, capacity allowing which it c!early was here, to have someone in ICU to monitor them closely.

I think some people think we should have had a full handover including current medication and gcs every 2 hours.

[Newgirls]

Yes Baaaa

And what are the total deaths from all causes at the mo - we don’t know how many are extra/early deaths and how can we?

[Baaaahhhhh]

NHS England has recorded 765 new deaths in hospital from coronavirus. It said that 140 of them occurred yesterday, while 568 took place between 1 April and 7 April.The remaining 57 deaths took place in March, including two on 19 March and one on 16 March

But this is why we can't possibly see trends until way after the event. Too much lag in the system, only hospital deaths, although ONS does sweep them up weekly, and we need to see next Tuesdays figures to have a better idea. I think looking at daily deaths really tells us nothing, until someone can retrospectively look at the actual dates of deaths on certificates, and do the stats from that.

[Newgirls]

Being such a busy transport hub this virus has been well spread around the uk for ages

Italy worry about if/when it will spread to the south where the hospitals are not as good as the north

It’s all equally awful sadly

[starlightgazers]

UK ranks lower than Spain, Italy

But we're at least 2-3 weeks behind them so of course we have had less deaths so far?

[AdaHopper]

The thing to watch is the trend, not the absolute numbers. Like pp's have said, different counrties measure things differently. I am in Belgium for example and in our death figures all deaths related to covid are included (deaths at home, in care homes, even those suspected of being covid positive but not tested). So it is impossible to compare.

What is possible to compare is the evolution of new cases vs confirmed cases, daily deaths versus total deaths within a country.
Most countries have followed a similar trend. It is when they fall out of the pattern that you see the effects of the measures taken.

This graph shows those patterns.

[buttermilkwaffles]

Attached.

[buttermilkwaffles]

Chart:

[roses2]

Exactly @KeepWashingThoseHands - we should be looking at deaths per 1m population (for which UK ranks lower than Spain, Italy, Belgium). The number of deaths is meaningless when looked at in isolation.

[Miljea]

Personally, like an earlier poster says, I don't think are, or were that bad at 'following the rules'.

I think it's a line being fed to us so we're ready for a stronger lockdown, although it will also have the effect of fragmenting our already Brexit- fragmented society further as we seek to either apportion blame to those we perceive are 'breaking the rules' (cf MN...); or kick off social unrest because of the unfairness, as, nightly on the news, reports of 'mass flouting of the rules' and 'probably further clamp-downs' are accompanied by 3-4 day old, if not week old contradictory footage of a few people calmly sitting in well distanced groups in parks; or Brighton beach, wide shot, with 8 people in sight; or policemen gathering around a single bloke sitting on a park bench, or 6 cars is a beauty spot car park with no one in sight.

This 'rule breaking' is a narrative they want us to believe, rather than have us examine the reality that they imposed measures too late, due to our exceptionalism.

And the rate of infection is the measure of containment, but one we struggle to measure because we do not have the kits to do so.

Death rates seem simpler, but I think are particularly misleading in a league table!

[buttermilkwaffles]

Per capita figures are here:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million

[OhCrumbsWhereNow]

Italy's cases are concentrated in the North and their aggressive lockdown has done a lot to stop a huge spread across the country.

In the UK we are seeing a number of centres all at the same time - London, West Midlands, Wales.

UK is also a major international transit hub - Bergamo airport is teeny compared with Heathrow and Gatwick - and we have a more mobile population (commuters and spread-out families) compared with Italy or Spain.

[KeepWashingThoseHands]

Not good with links on this phone but in terms of direct comparisons I read it like this:

Spain #2 with 326 deaths p/1M
Italy #4 with 292
UK #9 with 105

So you could say the death rate in the UK is one-third (ish) that of Spain and Italy - so far.

Not saying that means all our policies and responses are optimal.

[Baaaahhhhh]

KeepWashingThoseHands Yes, I am trying to link the chart, but failing miserably. Thanks for backing me up .

[KeepWashingThoseHands]

Worldometre is showing the UK as 9th in the 'league table' of deaths per 1M.

[Baaaahhhhh]

Our mortality figures are far worse per capita than any other European nation

Incorrect.

[Newgirls]

So true!

I don’t think any of us will be wishing our kids back next week! The debates on here seem to be focused on what might happen at may half term. We are mostly a very sensible and cautious lot!

[theschoolonthehill]

We have to remember we're not adults to be informed, we're "the general population" whose behaviour and reactions have to be controlled, and that means being very considered in what we're told and when. We'll be told what the government thinks will cause us to behave in the way they wish.

Exactly.
This is the clearest explanation I have ever read on MN.

[MereDintofPandiculation]

cherrypavlova I said the same about Boris I'm sure there's more to it and he wouldn't be on ICU unless he was on a ventilater. They say he can sit up and speak to doctors, and this is an improvement. I can't recall us having been told at any time that he was unable to sit up or to talk to doctors. I'm not at all sure we can believe anything we're told.

We have to remember we're not adults to be informed, we're "the general population" whose behaviour and reactions have to be controlled, and that means being very considered in what we're told and when. We'll be told what the government thinks will cause us to behave in the way they wish.