Stupid question, but are we all expected to get it at some point?

[Cocolapew]

After quarantine and things get more back to normal the virus will obviously still be about, yes?
So will people still get it but in smaller numbers?
I understand quarantine is to stop too many people getting it so as not to overwhelm hospitals, but what exactly is going to happen when we are allowed out again?

Localised outbreaks? Reduced numbers allowed in public places? Advise vulnerable to avoid as much contact as possible?

IMHO we need to have a long hard talk about international travel as part of our exit strategy. Look at China, where it has started to grow because of expats returning.

There are models that show that 60% need to catch it before the next flu season starts.

GP friend a month back seemed to think we would all get it.

We won't all get it, because herd immunity will eventually kick in. That's estimated to be between 60 - 80% at the moment.
The question is, what level will we have reached before a mass vaccination programme becomes available.

Basically yes. They have to let us out in some kind of controlled manner, and when that happens more will catch it if they haven’t already had it.

Remember though that many people are asymptomatic so the infection rate is much higher than the number of positive tests as only those making it to hospital inpatients have been tested, so the sickest if you like. If more people are immune, then there are fewer people to catch it from.

The “we will all get it” gives me major anxiety as dd is in the extremely vulnerable group

A doctor on the radio suggested that once flu season is over - now - that anyone with even just cold symptoms will probably have covid19

Pumpkin, that’s why the “healthy” need to catch it first iyswim

PumpkinP there are still other steps we can take to protect vulnerable people such as your daughter before herd immunity is reached, so try not to worry.

And he asymptomatic people the ones who will likely spread it as they will have no
Idea. I was thinking about it like this, if me and my husband get it and stay at home following all guidelines then it stops here with us as it doesn’t go to another host. If I was asymptotic and went to the supermarket as usual I would likely pass it on at some point.

They haven't mentioned this approach for a number of weeks. I think they dont know if the science it was based on is valid. It relies on you remaining immune for a considerable time after infection and the death rates not being unacceptably high.

There's also an estimate that 1 million have been infected. To get 40 million ish through by winter without a catastrophe in the NHS looks unlikely to me.

There are models that show that 60% need to catch it before the next flu season starts.

That’s 40 million people in the UK. With the average person infecting 2.5 people in 5 days (estimate used for rate prior to current social distancing) it would take about 3 months for us for that number to be infected. As the rate of infection will necessarily drop as we near the 60%, it would likely take a few months than that to achieve herd immunity.... whereupon the next flu season is upon us.

Basically therefore, to get herd immunity before next years flu season we have to get back to normal straight away!.... The problem with that is the hundreds of thousands of deaths that would inevitably bring, and the complete swamping of the NHS. The most vulnerable couldn’t realistically be kept safe as if CV was running rampant, how are you going to keep it out of a care home or someone’s home that requires homecare....

Yes...this isn't going away. We either stay in complete lock down until be get a vaccine, or most of us will get it at some point. Vaccine is ages away, even once it's developed, producing it and distributing it will take months, look at how long it's taken to hand out a few face masks! All that can be done at the moment is to let people get it in a controlled way, probably by turning on and off lockdown.

So basically the approach is to suppress and control until we get a vaccine.... That doesn’t mean lockdown necessarily. It means much more and better use of PPE and much more testing, both for the virus and the antibodies to show that a person has had it (which hasn’t been developed yet I believe).

It seems to be the government’s unstated plan that all but the extremely vulnerable catch it, albeit in a controlled way so the NHS does not get overwhelmed.

It’s really infectious. I think about 1/3 people I know have it, even though they’ve all been really careful.

The plan is for the majority of us to catch it in a 'controlled' way so as to minimise the effect on the NHS.

I think we will have all been exposed to it long before a vaccine arrives.

Thanks for the replies. Me and DH both have underlying health conditions, his being COPD so I would still worry once he's back to work and was in a position to catch it.
Can someone explain how herd immunity works please?

Here

In this case it will be through building immunity /antibodies after having the virus.

Thanks chickadee

Unless they keep everyone in lockdown for the next 18 months, when a vaccine will hopefully be ready, then it is thought that most people will get it, to around 60-80 percent (as an earlier poster said), when the herd immunity will kick in.
ie, at about 60 percent, the virus will have difficulty transmitting to another person, because most people will have had it.
The point of the lockdown (as I understand it), is to 'flatten the spike', ie lengthen it out, and create more hospital space in the meantime.
Most people who get it, it seems to be mild, but for some people, they require hospital treatment, and if I am one of them, I hope there will be enough beds/ventilators/staff to treat me, and give me the best possible chance of surviving.

Herd immunity works on the basis that once a certain number of people have had it (and are immune), it can no longer spread as there aren’t enough people left for it to spread to.
Coronavirus isn’t going away. The measures being taken aren’t to eradicate it, it’s impossible. The best case scenario is that it spreads through the population in a controlled way until there is a working vaccine.

I don't see how herd will work though
if planes are coming in from everywhere
You can get it from surfaces

The extremely vulnerable are going to get it too if they don't sort out food deliveries soon.

Lots of us can't get any slots or even click and collect. We will just have to risk it and go and get food. And yes, I have registered, yes I have got the letter (twice) yes I have phoned sainsburys helpline, and no a food parcel is not a solution to feed six adult sized people.

But, hey, we would all have died anyway. As they keep saying on here. It's probably part of Dominics strategy.

Just sick of everyone saying the vulnerable have got the delivery slots. It's just not true.

But it's worse for the health workers and key workers with inadequate PPE by miles, obviously.

And it's no ones fault, just a great big shitshow